114th Il Lombardia (1.UWT) // 15th of August 2020

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If anyone's equally fresh, I'm not sure I think Evenepoel would straight up destroy everyone on the Civiglio. However, the long flats in this race, especially the flat between the Muro di Sormano and the Civilgio should give Evenepoel more recovery than the others. Normally the Muro should be his weakest point in the race.

I think once the race hits the Civiglio, he every fart he makes will probably be covered, so unless he's the strongest that's gonna be hard.

If I were DQS, I would drill it on the flat, Madonna del Ghisallo and Colma di Sormano all the way until the foot of the Muro.
 
Do you guys think it's possible that he attacks as early as 90-100 kms out ....on the hilly section right after the feed zone?

I don't think it's the most likely outcome at all (his team will probably advise against it, also) -- but I can't rule it out, either.
That seems insane and very pointless. The peloton isn't tired at that point yet and they'll casually burn domestiques until the Muro.

If he still makes it stick, then he was never losing and also wtf.
 
Some quotes from an interview with Evenepoel today in Belgian press (HLN) regarding Lombardia:

"I've never prepared (for) a race as good as this one."
"I'm in great shape, as planned and perfectly timed."
"I don't mind being top favourite. It gives me more positive than negative energy."
"In an ideal scenario I still have two or three teammates after the Muro di Sormano and we can control the finale."
"I'm most wary of Vincenzo Nibali, he knows this race inside and out."
 
Do you guys think it's possible that he attacks as early as 90-100 kms out ....on the hilly section right after the feed zone?

I don't think it's the most likely outcome at all (his team will probably advise against it, also) -- but I can't rule it out, either.
He tried a 105k solo, but got caught 7k too soon in Germany. That was flat.
His 50k solo in Poland was in a 150k stage.
In San Sebastian he attacked with 22k to go.
In Adriatica Ionica 30k from the finish.
I certainly hope he is not an idiot.
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
That seems insane and very pointless. The peloton isn't tired at that point yet and they'll casually burn domestiques until the Muro.

If he still makes it stick, then he was never losing and also wtf.
Actually...It depends on who reacts and how those who go with him collaborate..If this is a way to isolate certain topriders from their teammates early on, it might not be that stupid. I can imagine favorites being nervous and riding on his wheel more. If he ride away with a bunch of favorites it could then become a man to man battle which probably favors Evenepoel. So why not just test it? Just see how the riders react..
 
If anyone's equally fresh, I'm not sure I think Evenepoel would straight up destroy everyone on the Civiglio. However, the long flats in this race, especially the flat between the Muro di Sormano and the Civilgio should give Evenepoel more recovery than the others. Normally the Muro should be his weakest point in the race.

I think once the race hits the Civiglio, he every fart he makes will probably be covered, so unless he's the strongest that's gonna be hard.

If I were DQS, I would drill it on the flat, Madonna del Ghisallo and Colma di Sormano all the way until the foot of the Muro.
Excellent analysis imo. Look at Burgos for how guys like Sosa got shelled out early on the climb after the race was ridden hard from the crosswinds on the flat then how much better Sosa was on the final day finish.
 
Actually...It depends on who reacts and how those who go with him collaborate..If this is a way to isolate certain topriders from their teammates early on, it might not be that stupid. I can imagine favorites being nervous and riding on his wheel more. If he ride away with a bunch of favorites it could then become a man to man battle which probably favors Evenepoel. So why not just test it? Just see how the riders react..
Yes, i (and i think most people) assumed he meant solo, a winning move. An attack to form an elite group and ditch some domestiques is obviously something different.
 
Reactions: Naico
Spot on!
If anyone's equally fresh, I'm not sure I think Evenepoel would straight up destroy everyone on the Civiglio. However, the long flats in this race, especially the flat between the Muro di Sormano and the Civilgio should give Evenepoel more recovery than the others. Normally the Muro should be his weakest point in the race.
 
Reactions: Red Rick
Yes, i (and i think most people) assumed he meant solo, a winning move. An attack to form an elite group and ditch some domestiques is obviously something different.
Yup, if nobody reacts he better save his legs that early. That’s for sure.
To sum op other comments here that also make sense to me for Evenepoel:

1: make the team drill it hard all race if possible (but not losing too many riders compared to other teams)
2: try to isolate riders early (by applying 1 or begin the top dog battle early if they attack or react early)
3:use the few flat parts to your advantage (he seems to descend ok but it will be a first for him these technical long descents + others could benefit from tje descends to recuperate or make a difference)
4: Avoid coming to a situation where a final kick could make the difference
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
Yes, i (and i think most people) assumed he meant solo, a winning move. An attack to form an elite group and ditch some domestiques is obviously something different.
True. It may seem insane to even think about it, but it's only a matter of time until he goes on a 90+ km raid that is actually succesful. We only really have Poland to go on. The rest is ancient history. He's so much better than he was last year.

Like I said, though, I expect him to attack on Civiglio. Don't expect anything crazy on Saturday. I think his team will advise him to go low-risk, since it's such a prestigious race.
 
Do you guys think it's possible that he attacks as early as 90-100 kms out ....on the hilly section right after the feed zone?

I don't think it's the most likely outcome at all (his team will probably advise against it, also) -- but I can't rule it out, either.
I doubt he’d go that early. I think the 51km solo in the TdP was a bit of a trial run for Lombardia.
 
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Reactions: Sandisfan
I can't seem to get as excited for this as usual. Doesn't really feel like a monument this year and the startlist is really underwhelming. Strade definitely feels like a much bigger and more important race this year.

I guess it's just the Covid calendar and conflict for Tour guys. Giro will likely feel the same.
 

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