114th Il Lombardia (1.UWT) // 15th of August 2020

[Logic-is-your-friend]

​

I'll spruce up the post later, just wanted to start the topic to post the news that 12km has been cut from the course. No hills/mountains were cut, but the total length is "only" 231km anymore

12km cut from Il Lombardia route in late course change

Monument keeps all the major climbs while skipping loop to Lecco

www.cyclingnews.com

2019's top 20:

1	Mollema Bauke	Trek - Segafredo	5:52:59
2	Valverde Alejandro	Movistar Team	0:16
3	Bernal Egan	Team INEOS	,,
4	Fuglsang Jakob	Astana Pro Team	,,
5	Woods Michael	EF Education First	0:34
6	Haig Jack	Mitchelton-Scott	,,
7	Roglič Primož	Team Jumbo-Visma	,,
8	Buchmann Emanuel	BORA - hansgrohe	0:50
9	Latour Pierre	AG2R La Mondiale	,,
10	Molard Rudy	Groupama - FDJ	,,
11	Gaudu David	Groupama - FDJ	,,
12	Majka Rafał	BORA - hansgrohe	,,
13	Mas Enric	Deceuninck - Quick Step	,,
14	Sosa Iván Ramiro	Team INEOS	,,
15	Yates Adam	Mitchelton-Scott	1:57
16	Izagirre Gorka	Astana Pro Team	2:08
17	Visconti Giovanni	Neri Sottoli - Selle Italia - KTM	,,
18	Martin Dan	UAE-Team Emirates	2:09
19	Moscon Gianni	Team INEOS	2:12
20	Rolland Pierre	Vital Concept - B&B Hotels	2:30

2018's Top 20:

1	Pinot Thibaut	Groupama - FDJ	5:53:22
2	Nibali Vincenzo	Bahrain Merida Pro Cycling Team	0:32
3	Teuns Dylan	BMC Racing Team	0:43
4	Urán Rigoberto	Team EF Education First-Drapac p/b Cannondale	,,
5	Wellens Tim	Lotto Soudal	,,
6	Izagirre Ion	Bahrain Merida Pro Cycling Team	,,
7	Majka Rafał	BORA - hansgrohe	,,
8	Pozzovivo Domenico	Bahrain Merida Pro Cycling Team	,,
9	Martin Dan	UAE-Team Emirates	0:48
10	Bennett George	Team LottoNL-Jumbo	1:22
11	Valverde Alejandro	Movistar Team	1:31
12	Bernal Egan	Team Sky	,,
13	Woods Michael	Team EF Education First-Drapac p/b Cannondale	,,
14	Reichenbach Sébastien	Groupama - FDJ	,,
15	Nieve Mikel	Mitchelton-Scott	,,
16	Cataldo Dario	Astana Pro Team	1:57
17	Roglič Primož	Team LottoNL-Jumbo	3:04
18	Konrad Patrick	BORA - hansgrohe	3:33
19	Cattaneo Mattia	Androni Giocattoli - Sidermec	,,
20	Fuglsang Jakob	Astana Pro Team	,,

Current 30 best competitors according to PCS:

1	Evenepoel Remco	Deceuninck - Quick Step	1343
2	Fuglsang Jakob	Astana Pro Team	1029
3	Ulissi Diego	UAE-Team Emirates	894
4	Mollema Bauke	Trek - Segafredo	802
5	Schachmann Maximilian	BORA - hansgrohe	686
6	Majka Rafał	BORA - hansgrohe	630
7	Wellens Tim	Lotto Soudal	579
8	Kelderman Wilco	Team Sunweb	547
9	van der Poel Mathieu	Alpecin-Fenix	518
10	Matthews Michael	Team Sunweb	485
11	Vlasov Aleksandr	Astana Pro Team	437
12	Bennett George	Team Jumbo-Visma	394
13	Woods Michael	EF Pro Cycling	392
14	Izagirre Ion	Astana Pro Team	374
15	Nibali Vincenzo	Trek - Segafredo	359
16	Aranburu Alex	Astana Pro Team	358
17	Geschke Simon	CCC Team	345
18	Nieve Mikel	Mitchelton-Scott	340
19	Vingegaard Jonas	Team Jumbo-Visma	334
20	Clarke Simon	EF Pro Cycling	331
21	Molard Rudy	Groupama - FDJ	329
22	Devenyns Dries	Deceuninck - Quick Step	314
23	Moscon Gianni	Team INEOS	305
24	Almeida João	Deceuninck - Quick Step	304
25	Pasqualon Andrea	Circus - Wanty Gobert	297
26	Hermans Ben	Israel Start-Up Nation	296
27	Bettiol Alberto	EF Pro Cycling	291
28	Van der Sande Tosh	Lotto Soudal	290
29	Ciccone Giulio	Trek - Segafredo	289
30	Visconti Giovanni	Vini Zabù - KTM	278

 

[Velolover2]

Everyone will be glued to Evenepoel's wheel.

I think he will open up the race early and attack on the slopes of Sormano before the actual Muro. I don't think he can drop Woods and Fuglsang types on the steepest part.

 

[red_flanders]

Anyone know what the red bit on the profile signifies? Just that it's a "wall"?

 

[tobydawq]

Why did Unibet just gift me a lot of money by having Evenepoel at odds 3?

 

[Leinster]

Anyone know what the red bit on the profile signifies? Just that it's a "wall"?

Pretty sure that's exactly it. "Here be 17% grades. Abandon hope ye with your 39t chainrings."

 

[BlueRoads]

Why did Unibet just gift me a lot of money by having Evenepoel at odds 3?

Congratulations. I don't bet, but this would be a good point to start.

 

[red_flanders]

Pretty sure that's exactly it. "Here be 17% grades. Abandon hope ye with your 39t chainrings."

Holy smokes, just read this from Wikipedia: The Muro di Sormano is a hill located in Sormano, Italy. This climb is one of the most severe to have been used in road cycling, with an average gradient of 17% and a maximum of 27%.

 

[BlueRoads]

Everyone will be glued to Evenepoel's wheel.

I think he will open up the race early and attack on the slopes of Sormano before the actual Muro. I don't think he can drop Woods and Fuglsang types on the steepest part.

I would not dare to say "I don't think he can" at this point. But I agree he could try rather early.

 

[Blanco]

Holy smokes, just read this from Wikipedia: The Muro di Sormano is a hill located in Sormano, Italy. This climb is one of the most severe to have been used in road cycling, with an average gradient of 17% and a maximum of 27%.

You've never watched Sormano?!

 

[Red Rick]

Nibali will look at Remco Evenepoel, then he'll look the other way, for he is not the one he seeks.

For years he has done battle here with Thibaut Pinot, but without him he feels empty.

 

[hayneplane]

Most likely scenario for me is some really good climbers kick clear on the Muro Di Sormano and leaving Nibali and Evenepoel to tempo up and limit the gap that Nibali closes with a typical daredevil descent and Remco closes on the early part of the valley road then goes straight to the front and slowly strangles what is left of the lead bunch before leaving them gasping for air 5 kms from the foot of Civiglo signing off on a 25km solo to glory.

 

[Sestriere]

I don't think anyone will be able to follow REMCO™ on the Sormano. Winning margin will be less than 2 minutes though since the chasing group will have a couple of demestiques left to keep it below 30 s before Civiglio. But since Remco doesn't slow down it won't matter.

Hoping for a good fight for second.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I don't think anyone will be able to follow REMCO™ on the Sormano.

Sosa might, if in top shape. He didn't do too badly last year.

Long shot, I know.

 

[Blanco]

I may sound strange, especially after Burgos and Poland, but I don't think Remco will win...

 

[Leinster]

I may sound strange, especially after Burgos and Poland, but I don't think Remco will win...

BURN THE HERETIC!!!!

 

[Rollthedice]

I may sound strange, especially after Burgos and Poland, but I don't think Remco will win...

First really big race for the prodigy. First meaningful meeting with Nibali and his best friend Civiglio. I don't think Remco will manage to take off sooner.

 

[red_flanders]

You've never watched Sormano?!

I'm huge on the spring classics and the Giro, but generally quite done with cycling after the Tour. Football season starts, fall swells start pumping in the north Pacific, I've got other stuff going on. Cycling season is really long. I've never watched Lombardia. Only recently started watching Vuelta stages more than the odd mountain stage.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I may sound strange, especially after Burgos and Poland, but I don't think Remco will win...

So... you're saying he'll crash?

 

[Sestriere]

Sosa might, if in top shape. He didn't do too badly last year.

Long shot, I know.

Maybe he could, but in a long one day race? I unironically believe Remco could drop Sosa on the lake road afterwards by just riding tempo though.

 

[red_flanders]

I don't think anyone will be able to follow REMCO™ on the Sormano. Winning margin will be less than 2 minutes though since the chasing group will have a couple of demestiques left to keep it below 30 s before Civiglio. But since Remco doesn't slow down it won't matter.

Hoping for a good fight for second.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Nibali will look at Remco Evenepoel, then he'll look the other way, for he is not the one he seeks.

For years he has done battle here with Thibaut Pinot, but without him he feels empty.

To be read in Cate Blanchett's Galadriel voice.

 

[Velolover2]

Is Simon Yates racing it?

I've never understood why he hasn't raced this more often. Sormano and Civiglio are designed to the Yates brothers.

 

[Big Doopie]

Wow. And I thought I was the one hyping him too much.

I think he can win.

But to go so far as to say he will...

It may depend somewhat on how focused everyone is on marking him. If that has already begun, then it will be a first time at dealing with that. Whether he can deal with it as Merckx did by getting on the front and wearing people off his wheel... he has certainly done that, but in his first ever monument, that would be...well!

depends on the teams as well.

 

[skippo12]

Wouldn´t be suprised if Remco attacks and for whatever reason no one decides to follow or chase him again. I thought that riders and teams had learned their lesson but the Tour of Poland showed that they still haven´t.
Prediciton: On the flat part prior to the Civiglio he attacks out of a reduced group of 15 riders. Leaders are watching each other. No one chases. He gets 20s and they never see him again.

 

[red_flanders]

Wouldn´t be suprised if Remco attacks and for whatever reason no one decides to follow or chase him again. I thought that riders and teams had learned their lesson but the Tour of Poland showed that they still haven´t.
Prediciton: On the flat part prior to the Civiglio he attacks out of a reduced group of 15 riders. Leaders are watching each other. No one chases. He gets 20s and they never see him again.

Sometimes in a race you are just to tired to follow. It’s not always a calculation. Everyone knows who Remco is, they aren’t forgetting to mark him.