115th Paris-Roubaix 2017 - April 9, 257k

[Alexandre B.]

Re: Re:

Anyways, what do the people prefer, Flanders or Roubaix?!

Well, the Belgians love the Ronde more than the French love L'Enfer.

For me, it's Roubaix.

The problem for us is that we have the Tour de France, and Bordeaux-Paris was the most popular "one-day race" held in France for quite a long time.

 

[RedheadDane]

Well, (Dutch - I presume) Wikipedia already called the winner!

http://sporza.be/cm/sporza/extra/opvallend/1.2942040

 

[wayahead]

***** GVA (always in the mix and great sprint)
**** Boonen (team, experience, ability to peak when needed, good sprint)
*** Sagan (he can win solo only), Naesen (excellent form), Gilbert (obviously)
** Vanmarcke, Degenkolb, Kristoff (you never know with them)
* Cancellara (almost invisible this spring)

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Re: Re:

Well, the Belgians love the Ronde more than the French love L'Enfer.

I'm pretty sure the Belgians love Paris-Roubaix more than the French as well, though.

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

***** GVA (always in the mix and great sprint)
**** Boonen (team, experience, ability to peak when needed, good sprint)
*** Sagan (he can win solo only), Naesen (excellent form), Gilbert (obviously)
** Vanmarcke, Degenkolb, Kristoff (you never know with them)
* Cancellara (almost invisible this spring)

Okay, I think the myth of Sagan's nonexistent sprint and tactical ineptitude is beginning to be stretched too far.
Of course he has committed a ton of mistakes this year but these years, he is definitely the rider who is put into most difficult tactical situations by far due to everybody knowing that he is the strongest and that his team is weak.

But I think that Bora are better suited to Paris-Roubaix and I think he will finally break his drought this Sunday - and yeah, he will probably win solo but if he gets to the velodrome with, say, GvA he would still be my favorite in a sprint. Especially because I don't think that GvA would feel inferior to Sagan and let him do the lion's share of the work which almost always happens.

But Sagan has not had a clear run at Paris-Roubaix yet (except for 2014 but that does not really count) so we are yet to see if he has the ability to get away alone on the cobbles where his fearsome acceleration will probably not be as effective as on the hellingen of Flanders. That's definitely going to be difficult.

I just really hope that he does not get caught out early like last year.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re:

***** GVA (always in the mix and great sprint)
**** Boonen (team, experience, ability to peak when needed, good sprint)
*** Sagan (he can win solo only), Naesen (excellent form), Gilbert (obviously)
** Vanmarcke, Degenkolb, Kristoff (you never know with them)
* Cancellara (almost invisible this spring)

Why? I do think that it will be very difficult to beat him on Velodrome if they start to play Track games.

This is the only race I prefer Sagan to win on sprint rather than solo. The best scenario for me is Boonen and Sagan on the velodrome with some reasonable advantage to chasers. Something similar to Cance and Vanmarcke in 2013.

 

[vedrafjord]

For me Paris-Roubaix is the best classic and the greatest race of the year.

 

[Lexman]

Re: Re:

Vanmarcke may have fractured his finger.

Starting is unlikely.

Broken finger confirmed:

"Vanmarcke suffered heavy road rash and a broken pinky finger. His upcoming schedule can only be determined with further medical review."
http://slipstreamsports.com/fourth-place-mixed-emotions-cannondale-drapac-ronde-van-vlaanderen/

you'd have to be completely cretino to start roubaix with a broken finger

and all the more he just could limp from bed to tabel and back to bed, can't have a massage because of the multiple bruises on his body and needs to have bandages which tear of the newly formed skin again

they give themselves 1% chance to start

 

[wayahead]

Re: Re:

***** GVA (always in the mix and great sprint)
**** Boonen (team, experience, ability to peak when needed, good sprint)
*** Sagan (he can win solo only), Naesen (excellent form), Gilbert (obviously)
** Vanmarcke, Degenkolb, Kristoff (you never know with them)
* Cancellara (almost invisible this spring)

Okay, I think the myth of Sagan's nonexistent sprint and tactical ineptitude is beginning to be stretched too far.
Of course he has committed a ton of mistakes this year but these years, he is definitely the rider who is put into most difficult tactical situations by far due to everybody knowing that he is the strongest and that his team is weak.

But I think that Bora are better suited to Paris-Roubaix and I think he will finally break his drought this Sunday - and yeah, he will probably win solo but if he gets to the velodrome with, say, GvA he would still be my favorite in a sprint. Especially because I don't think that GvA would feel inferior to Sagan and let him do the lion's share of the work which almost always happens.

But Sagan has not had a clear run at Paris-Roubaix yet (except for 2014 but that does not really count) so we are yet to see if he has the ability to get away alone on the cobbles where his fearsome acceleration will probably not be as effective as on the hellingen of Flanders. That's definitely going to be difficult.

I just really hope that he does not get caught out early like last year.

I can agree with a lot of what you're saying. But hard facts are against him. He's shown a lot of tactical mistakes recently. His team is weak. He already sprinted several times on velodrome, he lost it on every occasion. Everybody knows he needs a rest before his sprint, which is not doable in Roubaix. So in order to win he will have to be mighty strong and/or lucky.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re: Re:

***** GVA (always in the mix and great sprint)
**** Boonen (team, experience, ability to peak when needed, good sprint)
*** Sagan (he can win solo only), Naesen (excellent form), Gilbert (obviously)
** Vanmarcke, Degenkolb, Kristoff (you never know with them)
* Cancellara (almost invisible this spring)

Okay, I think the myth of Sagan's nonexistent sprint and tactical ineptitude is beginning to be stretched too far.
Of course he has committed a ton of mistakes this year but these years, he is definitely the rider who is put into most difficult tactical situations by far due to everybody knowing that he is the strongest and that his team is weak.

But I think that Bora are better suited to Paris-Roubaix and I think he will finally break his drought this Sunday - and yeah, he will probably win solo but if he gets to the velodrome with, say, GvA he would still be my favorite in a sprint. Especially because I don't think that GvA would feel inferior to Sagan and let him do the lion's share of the work which almost always happens.

But Sagan has not had a clear run at Paris-Roubaix yet (except for 2014 but that does not really count) so we are yet to see if he has the ability to get away alone on the cobbles where his fearsome acceleration will probably not be as effective as on the hellingen of Flanders. That's definitely going to be difficult.

I just really hope that he does not get caught out early like last year.

I can agree with a lot of what you're saying. But hard facts are against him. He's shown a lot of tactical mistakes recently. His team is weak. He already sprinted several times on velodrome, he lost it on every occasion. Everybody knows he needs a rest before his sprint, which is not doable in Roubaix. So in order to win he will have to be mighty strong and/or lucky.

When?

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

When?

Several = two, apparently. Because he has done it only twice. In 2014 for second place but he was going badly that season and managed sixth. And last year he sprinted for tenth place and was 11th after Adrien Petit.

That's it. 2010 he didn't finish, 2011 he was way back, 2012 and 2013 he didn't participate and 2015 he had a problem with his gears in the finale and didn't sprint on the velodrome.

 

[wayahead]

Re: Re:

Several = two, apparently. Because he has done it only twice. In 2014 for second place but he was going badly that season and managed sixth. And last year he sprinted for tenth place and was 11th after Adrien Petit.

That's it. 2010 he didn't finish, 2011 he was way back, 2012 and 2013 he didn't participate and 2015 he had a problem with his gears in the finale and didn't sprint on the velodrome.

You mean he was too tired to sprint successfully, because of him chasing the group before? OK then. I think he was dead last in that sprinting group. So several = three times in my book.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

Several = two, apparently. Because he has done it only twice. In 2014 for second place but he was going badly that season and managed sixth. And last year he sprinted for tenth place and was 11th after Adrien Petit.

That's it. 2010 he didn't finish, 2011 he was way back, 2012 and 2013 he didn't participate and 2015 he had a problem with his gears in the finale and didn't sprint on the velodrome.

You mean he was too tired to sprint successfully, because of him chasing the group before? OK then. I think he was dead last in that sprinting group. So several = three times in my book.

Maybe. It's very hard to see from the footage what happens in the sprint but he was indeed last in the group which indicates that he didn't try. But of course he sprinted for a 25th place last Sunday, so perhaps you're right, and he was drifting backwards in the group in the final meters.

But, anyway, that sprint or non-sprint is hardly representative of his skills on the velodrome.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re: Re:

Several = two, apparently. Because he has done it only twice. In 2014 for second place but he was going badly that season and managed sixth. And last year he sprinted for tenth place and was 11th after Adrien Petit.

That's it. 2010 he didn't finish, 2011 he was way back, 2012 and 2013 he didn't participate and 2015 he had a problem with his gears in the finale and didn't sprint on the velodrome.

You mean he was too tired to sprint successfully, because of him chasing the group before? OK then. I think he was dead last in that sprinting group. So several = three times in my book.

LOL. I thought we were talking about sprint for the win. Which is exactly zero.
Talking about sprint ability and referring to 2015 or 2016 is like talking about CAVś ability and referring to intermediate sprints on TDF.

 

[Vroome.exe]

If it were Sagan and GVA in the velodrome, I'd give Sagan a 90% chance to win.

 

[wayahead]

Re: Re:

Several = two, apparently. Because he has done it only twice. In 2014 for second place but he was going badly that season and managed sixth. And last year he sprinted for tenth place and was 11th after Adrien Petit.

That's it. 2010 he didn't finish, 2011 he was way back, 2012 and 2013 he didn't participate and 2015 he had a problem with his gears in the finale and didn't sprint on the velodrome.

You mean he was too tired to sprint successfully, because of him chasing the group before? OK then. I think he was dead last in that sprinting group. So several = three times in my book.

LOL. I thought we were talking about sprint for the win. Which is exactly zero.
Talking about sprint ability and referring to 2015 or 2016 is like talking about CAVś ability and referring to intermediate sprints on TDF.

I wasn't talking about sprints for the win, obviously. My point is he never did good sprint in Roubaix. And he loses way too often in "tired" sprints. Where do you take your optimism? I'm really curious. You mean some GW2016 scenario?

 

[AQETUYIOI]

Re:

Kristoff has never been a Roubaix guy...

What does that imply?

 

[AQETUYIOI]

Re:

I don't think Kristoff has a chance next week, though.

Why not?

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Kristoff has never been a Roubaix guy...

What does that imply?

I guess it means that he's never been close to winning it in his career. His results there have always been considerably worse than at RVV a week before. Plus, he may well not even be outright leader with Martin there.

He does seem a bit bulkier this year though, so perhaps could go better. But he seems to be a bit more like a Sagan than like a Boonen - in that he needs that bit of recovery between the anaerobic efforts on the cobbles; and you don't get that in Roubaix.

 

[loge1884]

Re: Re:

[quote=" I wasn't talking about sprints for the win, obviously. My point is he never did good sprint in Roubaix. And he loses way too often in "tired" sprints. Where do you take your optimism? I'm really curious. You mean some GW2016 scenario?[/quote]

Indeed, he loses (way to often) in a small group sprint (when he has been in the wind for 90% of the time) to some of the so called smart guys having wheelsucked their way to the finale .... so, if you are implying, he will lose the sprint on the velodrome after having been pulling a bunch of guys behind him the last 20km, I guess you'd be right ..... if the duties in that group would be distributed more equally, I doubt many will be able to beat him though (Kristoff maybe or GVA / Degenkolb on a good day) ... so (provided him being upfront) in the end it comes down to the question will he find a group willing to participate or not ... if not, then the only way to win would be getting rid of the group .... we'll see on Sunday

 

[SKSemtex]

Re: Re:

Several = two, apparently. Because he has done it only twice. In 2014 for second place but he was going badly that season and managed sixth. And last year he sprinted for tenth place and was 11th after Adrien Petit.

That's it. 2010 he didn't finish, 2011 he was way back, 2012 and 2013 he didn't participate and 2015 he had a problem with his gears in the finale and didn't sprint on the velodrome.

You mean he was too tired to sprint successfully, because of him chasing the group before? OK then. I think he was dead last in that sprinting group. So several = three times in my book.

LOL. I thought we were talking about sprint for the win. Which is exactly zero.
Talking about sprint ability and referring to 2015 or 2016 is like talking about CAVś ability and referring to intermediate sprints on TDF.

I wasn't talking about sprints for the win, obviously. My point is he never did good sprint in Roubaix. And he loses way too often in "tired" sprints. Where do you take your optimism? I'm really curious. You mean some GW2016 scenario?

I was always dreaming to see him on velodrome one to one situation with Cance. Something like Cance vs Sep.
I played it several times in my mind. Going to stand mode and see whose bike handling skills or nerves are better. OK that was a dream.
It looks like Sagan does not have such a problem with sprinting after the hard race as long as he has some time to relax and take some breath. I think that velodrome allows it and with his brutal acceleration, he should be unbeatable there. But as we say the "wish" is the father of "thought ".

 

[Cance > TheRest]

***** Degenkolb
**** Kristoff, Sagan, Boonen
*** Terpstra, Van Avermaet, Stannard
** Gilbert, Naesen, Stuyven, Durbridge, Demare
* Boasson-Hagen, Rowe, Van Baarle, Pippo, Stybar, Thwaites, Hayman

Vanmarcke uncertain to race, it appears.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Gilbert will not race Roubaix.
http://www.quickstepfloorscycling.com/en/news/detail/philippe-gilbert-to-take-break-after-successful-cobbles-campaign/3099

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

***** Degenkolb
**** Kristoff, Sagan, Boonen
*** Terpstra, Van Avermaet, Stannard
** Gilbert, Naesen, Stuyven, Durbridge, Demare
* Boasson-Hagen, Rowe, Van Baarle, Pippo, Stybar, Thwaites, Hayman

Vanmarcke uncertain to race, it appears.

Pippo will not be there. His team hasn't been invited.

Too bad because his shape is (finally) great

 

[Ruudz0r]

Re:

***** Degenkolb
**** Kristoff, Sagan, Boonen
*** Terpstra, Van Avermaet, Stannard
** Gilbert, Naesen, Stuyven, Durbridge, Demare
* Boasson-Hagen, Rowe, Van Baarle, Pippo, Stybar, Thwaites, Hayman

Vanmarcke uncertain to race, it appears.

Pippo does not deserve a star I think, sure he has a good history on the cobbles and he was looking pretty strong in Flandres, the only problem was he lost concentration at the moment the big guns went. He still did fight after that but did not get co operation with the guys he ended up in a ground behind Sagan/Gva/Naesen etc, so he did a good race, but Roubaix is a completely different race. He could potentially do well but his team aint starting and thats why i think he doesnt deserve a star.