115th Paris-Roubaix 2017 - April 9, 257k

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Actually think Boonen is my top favorite. I really don't rate GVA and Sagan that high on flat cobbles. They are not bad ofcourse, but they are no Boonen and Cancellara on them. Others come closer. (no one on the same level tho).

Hard to call. I'm guessing Boonen or an outsider

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Greg also has one of the meanest sprints around after a hard race, he has won all sprints in small groups in the classics this year. That certainly can't be said about Sagan! Kwito is also a finish extraordinaire at this best, I still remember how he humiliated Sagan at G-W.

Was in 2015 harelbeke and that sagan was in terrible shape

It was actually in Harelbeke 2016, so none of us were initially right.

And that certainly couldn't be explained by bad shape.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Sagan needs a rest before a sprint? Since when? Is that how he won the last WC?

You know, I get it, there is a lot of people that dislike Sagan for whatever reason, but sometimes, I just cant believe what kind of nonsense the anti-sagan crowd can make up and wonder if those people even watch any of these races.

Sagan didn't have to make one single pull in last years WC, so that really doesn't have anything to do with the discussion. Besides that, you just can't ignore all the races in which Sagan lost a sprint out of a small group. Het Volk 2016, E3 2016, TA stage 6 2016, GP Montreal 2016, Het Volk 2017, MSR 2017. Basically the only races he has won in comparable sprints in that time were GW 2016 and KBK 2017 and he could only win these races because there wasn't a big danger to get caught on the last kilometers, so Sagan didn't have to pull his group all the way to the last few hundred meters.
Saying people are making up things really is complete nonsense and saying these people didn't even watch any of these races as well. Meanwhile I'm surprised that there are still so many people who are surprised when he loses sprints agains Kwiat and GVA since Sagan's weakness of having a bad sprint after doing a lot of work has already been completely obvious so often.

Been similar the two times he got to the final km at Strade Bianche in the lead group. Not exactly a sprint, but he still could put nowhere near his usual power out on the final climb after working hardish in the previous kilometres.

 

[portugal11]

In my opinion, we never saw the "real" sagan in flat cobbles. Last year he was very strong, he rode something like 40 km with cancellara against a group of more than 20 riders and he still rode 30 km alone against boonen, stannard, hagen,etc. He was almost inside the top10

 

[portugal11]

Re: Re:

Greg also has one of the meanest sprints around after a hard race, he has won all sprints in small groups in the classics this year. That certainly can't be said about Sagan! Kwito is also a finish extraordinaire at this best, I still remember how he humiliated Sagan at G-W.

Was in 2015 harelbeke and that sagan was in terrible shape

It was actually in Harelbeke 2016, so none of us were initially right.

And that certainly couldn't be explained by bad shape.

Wow forget my argument. In 2015 harelbeke he bonked really bad in the final 4 km that he wasn't even able in finishing in the podium

 

[wayahead]

Re: Re:

Sagan needs a rest before a sprint? Since when? Is that how he won the last WC?

You know, I get it, there is a lot of people that dislike Sagan for whatever reason, but sometimes, I just cant believe what kind of nonsense the anti-sagan crowd can make up and wonder if those people even watch any of these races.

Oh my, come on. He has his undisputable strenghts and I'm in fact his biggest fan, but if he has some weaks it's a lack of tactical acumen (e.g. three mistimed sprints in MSR) and his trouble to sprint strongly after working too much in the finale. Both of them are usually key factors in Roubaix.

When discussing his sprint after hard work, what can you offer is Doha, E3 2014, GW 2016, Quebec 2016, KBK 2017 or sprint against Roelandts in RvV 2013. My list would be probably longer, including lost sprints against Kwiatkowski (MSR 2017, E3 2016), GVA (RvV 2012 & 2015, Omloop 2016 & 2017, Montreal 2016), Ciolek (2013) or group of top dogs (P-R 2014).

He is improving though, as unlikely as it sounds. Two - three years ago we were questioning even his ability to handle 250+km races, labeling him next EBH (Richmond cut this debate off), or discussing effectivity of his ride on cobbles because of his high bike position. His stamina is better, experience as well. But based on his previous results I would be very surprised to see him winning sprint in Roubaix.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Last time a Flanders winner not riding Roubaix..?

 

[Saint Unix]

Re:

Last time a Flanders winner not riding Roubaix..?

Nuyens in 2011.

 

[Scott SoCal]

Re:

I don't think Phil made this decision...

Yep.

One leader for QS. I understand but Phil will never have a better opportunity. Dude is en fuego.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

I don't think Phil made this decision...

Yep.

One leader for QS. I understand but Phil will never have a better opportunity. Dude is en fuego.

I'm baffled really. Boonen's chances are improved not disimproved by having a Gilbert in this form there, as long as Gilbert is there to attack. But instead they send him to the Ardennes where they already have two favourites for FW and LBL? Is yet another AGR really the height of their ambitions for him?

 

[Fork-in-the-Road]

That team is just so strong that they go into the Classics with a plan and stick to it. Hard to question success!

 

[Jancouver]

Re: Re:

Sagan needs a rest before a sprint? Since when? Is that how he won the last WC?

You know, I get it, there is a lot of people that dislike Sagan for whatever reason, but sometimes, I just cant believe what kind of nonsense the anti-sagan crowd can make up and wonder if those people even watch any of these races.

Oh my, come on. He has his undisputable strenghts and I'm in fact his biggest fan, but if he has some weaks it's a lack of tactical acumen (e.g. three mistimed sprints in MSR) and his trouble to sprint strongly after working too much in the finale. Both of them are usually key factors in Roubaix.

When discussing his sprint after hard work, what can you offer is Doha, E3 2014, GW 2016, Quebec 2016, KBK 2017 or sprint against Roelandts in RvV 2013. My list would be probably longer, including lost sprints against Kwiatkowski (MSR 2017, E3 2016), GVA (RvV 2012 & 2015, Omloop 2016 & 2017, Montreal 2016), Ciolek (2013) or group of top dogs (P-R 2014).

He is improving though, as unlikely as it sounds. Two - three years ago we were questioning even his ability to handle 250+km races, labeling him next EBH (Richmond cut this debate off), or discussing effectivity of his ride on cobbles because of his high bike position. His stamina is better, experience as well. But based on his previous results I would be very surprised to see him winning sprint in Roubaix.

How about his win in Tirreno where he won the stage to Ferno? Climbing with Quintana, Pinot etc and taking the sprint?

Oh, you are right. Let me recap. It was a coffe ride until the last 100m where he was sprinting against Pinot, that's right, that's why he won, because all the fast guys forgot to join the coffee ride.

What a bunch of BS about Sagan needing an easy ride or a break before the sprint. Yeah, he lost San Remo because he did 99% of the work since he attacked and went too early in the sprint, so he lost by a cm to a guy who drafted on his wheel for several kilometers. That's a great example why he needs an easy ride to the finish line.

 

[The Hegelian]

Re:

Actually think Boonen is my top favorite. I really don't rate GVA and Sagan that high on flat cobbles. They are not bad ofcourse, but they are no Boonen and Cancellara on them. Others come closer. (no one on the same level tho).

Hard to call. I'm guessing Boonen or an outsider

I think that's a fair call ~ not just a sentimental one. Proven pedigree is proven pedigree. QS will be all in for him too. Might need to slip away on his own though.

Degenkolb maybe second fave. + I could see Orica with 3 in the final selection.

One curious thing about this cobbled classics season is Sky being pretty invisible. Last year they were probably as dominant as QS. Maybe due for some good luck....Rowe?

 

[StryderHells]

Just finished re-watching last years race and if it can be half as good as that then we are in for a cracking event. I have to agree with what others have posted and think Boonen really is one of the main favourites, he has looked good ever since last years race and comparing to last years prep he is way ahead of that. Degenkolb has to be right up with Boonen as a favourite, outside of that Terpstra is a proven quantity, Stannard, Rowe also have to come into calculations along with GVA and Sagan (have my doubts with Sagan), EBH hasn't looked as good this year but it wouldn't surprise to see him in the main selecton. I think Durbridge is a very good chance to be i the finish inside the top 10 as he has really blossomed as a cobbled classics rider this season and outside of some ill timed punctures in last years race looked liked he would of been inside of the top 10 in last years edition. As a dark horse I could see Scott Thwaites pulling out a massive ride but I'm going all in for Boonen to go out on a high.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

My ratings:

***** Sagan, Boonen, Degenkolb
**** Terpstra, Naesen, Van Avermaet
*** Kristoff, Stannard, Stybar
** Hagen, Demare, Van Baarle
* Lampaert, Greipel, Durbridge, Stuyven, Rowe, Martin

 

[Laplaz]

***** Boonen, Degenkolb
**** GVA, Sagan, Terpstra, Naesen
*** Stannard, EBH, Kristoff
** Van Baarle, T. Martin, Rowe, Stuyven
* Lampaert, Durbridge, Hayman, Keukeleire, Moscon

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Sagan needs a rest before a sprint? Since when? Is that how he won the last WC?

You know, I get it, there is a lot of people that dislike Sagan for whatever reason, but sometimes, I just cant believe what kind of nonsense the anti-sagan crowd can make up and wonder if those people even watch any of these races.

Oh my, come on. He has his undisputable strenghts and I'm in fact his biggest fan, but if he has some weaks it's a lack of tactical acumen (e.g. three mistimed sprints in MSR) and his trouble to sprint strongly after working too much in the finale. Both of them are usually key factors in Roubaix.

When discussing his sprint after hard work, what can you offer is Doha, E3 2014, GW 2016, Quebec 2016, KBK 2017 or sprint against Roelandts in RvV 2013. My list would be probably longer, including lost sprints against Kwiatkowski (MSR 2017, E3 2016), GVA (RvV 2012 & 2015, Omloop 2016 & 2017, Montreal 2016), Ciolek (2013) or group of top dogs (P-R 2014).

He is improving though, as unlikely as it sounds. Two - three years ago we were questioning even his ability to handle 250+km races, labeling him next EBH (Richmond cut this debate off), or discussing effectivity of his ride on cobbles because of his high bike position. His stamina is better, experience as well. But based on his previous results I would be very surprised to see him winning sprint in Roubaix.

How about his win in Tirreno where he won the stage to Ferno? Climbing with Quintana, Pinot etc and taking the sprint?

Oh, you are right. Let me recap. It was a coffe ride until the last 100m where he was sprinting against Pinot, that's right, that's why he won, because all the fast guys forgot to join the coffee ride.

What a bunch of BS about Sagan needing an easy ride or a break before the sprint. Yeah, he lost San Remo because he did 99% of the work since he attacked and went too early in the sprint, so he lost by a cm to a guy who drafted on his wheel for several kilometers. That's a great example why he needs an easy ride to the finish line.

This is a completely different argument. I don't think anyone is disputing that he can put out really impressive power until the final kms of races, like he did in the climbing in Tirreno. But, what he has consistently struggled with is sprinting after those hard efforts. Which is way it has been said above that he will probably have to win solo. Of course he can still beat riders like Pinot and Quintana in a sprint, but pretty much anyone who gets to the velodrome in the front group in Roubaix will be a lot faster finisher than those two, and will probably leave Sagan in their dust.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

This is a completely different argument. I don't think anyone is disputing that he can put out really impressive power until the final kms of races, like he did in the climbing in Tirreno. But, what he has consistently struggled with is sprinting after those hard efforts. Which is way it has been said above that he will probably have to win solo. Of course he can still beat riders like Pinot and Quintana in a sprint, but pretty much anyone who gets to the velodrome in the front group in Roubaix will be a lot faster finisher than those two, and will probably leave Sagan in their dust.

But what people continually choose to ignore - but has been pointed out a few times in this thread already - is that this is most probably due to the fact that he always has to work a lot more than the others. Partly because they know he'll do it and partly because they need him to do it as they don't want to sprint with a fresh Sagan.

He has to realise this very soon (if he hasn't done it already) but at least GvA will not feel inferior to him anymore, I think, so if those two get away, they will probably share the workload and we will have a completely different scenario.

A major problem with his plight to always ride on the front more often than the others is that he almost always ends up on the front of the group, which is not a good situation for him. In KBK this year he massacred the competition completely when he had the backmost position in the group (after an extremely poor tactical display by Trentin).

 

[SKSemtex]

Re: Re:

Sagan needs a rest before a sprint? Since when? Is that how he won the last WC?

You know, I get it, there is a lot of people that dislike Sagan for whatever reason, but sometimes, I just cant believe what kind of nonsense the anti-sagan crowd can make up and wonder if those people even watch any of these races.

Oh my, come on. He has his undisputable strenghts and I'm in fact his biggest fan, but if he has some weaks it's a lack of tactical acumen (e.g. three mistimed sprints in MSR) and his trouble to sprint strongly after working too much in the finale. Both of them are usually key factors in Roubaix.

When discussing his sprint after hard work, what can you offer is Doha, E3 2014, GW 2016, Quebec 2016, KBK 2017 or sprint against Roelandts in RvV 2013. My list would be probably longer, including lost sprints against Kwiatkowski (MSR 2017, E3 2016), GVA (RvV 2012 & 2015, Omloop 2016 & 2017, Montreal 2016), Ciolek (2013) or group of top dogs (P-R 2014).

He is improving though, as unlikely as it sounds. Two - three years ago we were questioning even his ability to handle 250+km races, labeling him next EBH (Richmond cut this debate off), or discussing effectivity of his ride on cobbles because of his high bike position. His stamina is better, experience as well. But based on his previous results I would be very surprised to see him winning sprint in Roubaix.

How about his win in Tirreno where he won the stage to Ferno? Climbing with Quintana, Pinot etc and taking the sprint?

Oh, you are right. Let me recap. It was a coffe ride until the last 100m where he was sprinting against Pinot, that's right, that's why he won, because all the fast guys forgot to join the coffee ride.

What a bunch of BS about Sagan needing an easy ride or a break before the sprint. Yeah, he lost San Remo because he did 99% of the work since he attacked and went too early in the sprint, so he lost by a cm to a guy who drafted on his wheel for several kilometers. That's a great example why he needs an easy ride to the finish line.

This is a completely different argument. I don't think anyone is disputing that he can put out really impressive power until the final kms of races, like he did in the climbing in Tirreno. But, what he has consistently struggled with is sprinting after those hard efforts. Which is way it has been said above that he will probably have to win solo. Of course he can still beat riders like Pinot and Quintana in a sprint, but pretty much anyone who gets to the velodrome in the front group in Roubaix will be a lot faster finisher than those two, and will probably leave Sagan in their dust.

:lol:

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

This is a completely different argument. I don't think anyone is disputing that he can put out really impressive power until the final kms of races, like he did in the climbing in Tirreno. But, what he has consistently struggled with is sprinting after those hard efforts. Which is way it has been said above that he will probably have to win solo. Of course he can still beat riders like Pinot and Quintana in a sprint, but pretty much anyone who gets to the velodrome in the front group in Roubaix will be a lot faster finisher than those two, and will probably leave Sagan in their dust.

But what people continually choose to ignore - but has been pointed out a few times in this thread already - is that this is most probably due to the fact that he always has to work a lot more than the others. Partly because they know he'll do it and partly because they need him to do it as they don't want to sprint with a fresh Sagan.

He has to realise this very soon (if he hasn't done it already) but at least GvA will not feel inferior to him anymore, I think, so if those two get away, they will probably share the workload and we will have a completely different scenario.

A major problem with his plight to always ride on the front more often than the others is that he almost always ends up on the front of the group, which is not a good situation for him. In KBK this year he massacred the competition completely when he had the backmost position in the group (after an extremely poor tactical display by Trentin).

I think he has realised, or been told, that he's working too much to compete in the sprint. But the problem is, if he doesn't work there will be a situation like at GW; or he will race too passively and miss the splits like at RVV. Because no-one will drag a rider like Sagan to the front of the race, splitting work 50-50, unless they are in a desperate situation.

That's the problem that strong riders face. And is perhaps the reason why Sagan is not going to end up with a great classics palmares like his talent perhaps should merit. Cancellara and Boonen for example had the same problem, having to do more work than their rivals, but both of those were still able to sprint well at the end of the race. The fact that Sagan can't, is a pretty major weakness that is well known to his rivals now and so they are sure to exploit it.

The other issue, in the context of this thread, is that you can't get to the velodrome in Roubaix without having worked hard. You can't moderate your effort and save much energy at PR - it's not like KBK where you can draft and go easy for 80% of the race. Everyone works hard and is really fatigued by the end. Judging by past performances; riders like Degenkolb, Boonen and GVA can still sprint well in that situation, while Sagan struggles more.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Wonder if this will be the first classic this year, where Crashy Martin won't hit the road.

I would rate it this way...

*****
**** Boonen, Degenkolb
*** Sagan, GvA, Terpstra
** Naesen, Hayman, Rowe, Durbridge
* Kristoff, Stybar, Trentin, Van Keirsbulck, Stannard

For me there is definitely no five star favorite here. Current weather forecast has Roubaix at 21°C and sunny on Sunday.

 

[the asian]

Wonder if this will be the first classic this year, where Crashy Martin won't hit the road.

I would rate it this way...

*****
**** Boonen, Degenkolb
*** Sagan, GvA, Terpstra
** Naesen, Hayman, Rowe, Durbridge
* Kristoff, Stybar, Trentin, Van Keirsbulck, Stannard

For me there is definitely no five star favorite here. Current weather forecast has Roubaix at 21°C and sunny on Sunday.

Pretty much this. Gonna be a fast race on Sunday.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Canc retired a few months too early

 

[the asian]

Re:

Canc retired a few months too early

Not really. He retired on the highest possible note.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Here you can take a look at the two new sectors on Strava.

26 De Viesly à Briastre (3 000 mètres) *** -> https://www.strava.com/segments/14238051
25 De Briastre à Solesmes (800 mètres) ** -> https://www.strava.com/segments/14237982

Teaser