115th Paris-Roubaix 2017 - April 9, 257k

[KGB]

***Stybar***
**Boonen,Sagan**
*Degenkolb*

 

[Breh]

Re: Re:

Why are people rating Sagan as one of the top favourites in this race? Sure he is massively talented but yet to show he can be in the finish of Roubaix.I think he's in with a shot but shouldn't be on the top line odds wise

I think it's because he is the best rider in the world and yet to have a clean run in Paris-Roubaix in a time of his career where he is going well. And in the Tour he has shown to be very good on the Paris-Roubaix-like cobbles, so for me it is no wonder. His bike-handling skills definitely also speak in his favour.

So I haven't yet seen the proof that he isn't able to win in Roubaix, but it's true that proof that he indeed is able to win has not been presented either. So it will end up in a discussion of beliefs with no real good points to either side.

I, for one, believe that he does have the abilities to win and hopefully he will finally prove that this Sunday.

He has shown great bike handling skills the past few races in Flanders...

 

[myrideissteelerthanyours]

Im calling it for Farrar. Don't even bother watching. The kid's got a lot of buzz this classics season and he's basically like a younger Matthew Hayman with better palmares.

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

*****Boonen
****Sagan, GVA, Naesen, Degenkolb, Terpstra
*** Kristoff, Démare, Rowe, Stybar, Stannard

Boonen is the man to beat. If you don't feel that way, you have no clue about racing as even the pros think Boonen is the man to beat.

Sagan still having consequences of that hard fall in Flanders. I think he will not be 100% anymore.
GvA still has to get rid of stronger sprinters.
Naesen's star is rising.
Degenkolb is not made for Flanders (too fat) but perfectly made for Roubaix, only wonder what shape he is in exactly
Terpstra may be a d%^& for some, he is still a hell of a rider on pave

Demare and Rowe should maybe get one more star, it is their moment to prove they are worth it.
Kristoff was never good in Roubaix. Stannard/Stybar could be close but I don't see them winning.

Spot on! I'm expecting nothing less than a big ride from Tommeke, he may not win, but his ride is going to be memorable, I'm pretty sure about that

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Might be crazy, but Movistar doesn't actually have that bad of a team for Roubaix. They have some very respectable rouleurs who potentially could do well here: Sutterlin, Dowsett, Erviti, Oliveira and Bennati. Could see a random top-10 for one of those guys and not necessarily Erviti.

Oliveira managed to finish Flanders in a decent although irrelevant position within Kristoff's group. Erviti was Movistar's second best at 8:35. Benatti and Sutterlin could do well, but Dowsett seems to me the kind of rider whose bike handling is well below his engine

Dowsett should get in the early break and try to let his engine work wonders for him like Hayman, he definitely isn't a technician.

 

[Arredondo]

Erviti had a crash earlier on in the race. Had to chase for quite some time.

I still expect something from him in Roubaix

 

[sir fly]

As far as I'm concerned, based on pedigree, teams, form curves, only one name stands out - Tomekke.
Then GVA, Sagan, Naesen, Degenkolb...

One more dusty PR, according to the forecasts, right?

 

[rghysens]

Re:

As far as I'm concerned, based on pedigree, teams, form curves, only one name stands out - Tomekke.
Then GVA, Sagan, Naesen, Degenkolb...

One more dusty PR, according to the forecasts, right?

Yes. According to meteo france there's no rain till Monday. Temperature will be 18-19°C. Light SxSW wind (tailwind).

So that means probably a rather fast edition of PR.

 

[Billie]

Bert De Backer will win this bike race

 

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

As far as I'm concerned, based on pedigree, teams, form curves, only one name stands out - Tomekke.
Then GVA, Sagan, Naesen, Degenkolb...

One more dusty PR, according to the forecasts, right?

Yes. According to meteo france there's no rain till Monday. Temperature will be 18-19°C. Light SxSW wind (tailwind).

So that means probably a rather fast edition of PR.

Yes, fast...
Numbers are always important in PR, and when it's dry and fast wearing down the opposition is the task.

 

[Volderke]

I predict a long finale where action will start from Hornaing (still the place of the greatest raid in PR history back in 1996: https://youtu.be/Z_2LnJ1esSo?t=9 ), further on Orchies and Bersee with side wind and not more than 10 riders will remain after Mons-en-Pevele (headwind in the final stretch of that 5 star secteur).

 

[jaylew]

Re:

*****Boonen
****Sagan, GVA, Naesen, Degenkolb, Terpstra
*** Kristoff, Démare, Rowe, Stybar, Stannard

Boonen is the man to beat. If you don't feel that way, you have no clue about racing as even the pros think Boonen is the man to beat.

Sagan still having consequences of that hard fall in Flanders. I think he will not be 100% anymore.
GvA still has to get rid of stronger sprinters.
Naesen's star is rising.
Degenkolb is not made for Flanders (too fat) but perfectly made for Roubaix, only wonder what shape he is in exactly
Terpstra may be a d%^& for some, he is still a hell of a rider on pave

Demare and Rowe should maybe get one more star, it is their moment to prove they are worth it.
Kristoff was never good in Roubaix. Stannard/Stybar could be close but I don't see them winning.

He certainly could win but that's a ridiculous statement.

 

[Volderke]

Ridiculous is that some here don't even give him a position amongst the 3-4 favorites for the race, that's all I am saying. Even his closest competitors see him as the man to beat, but some here have obviously raced against him the last couple of days it seems.

People giving e.g. Stybar more stars must do a reality check: when Boonen flats or is a minute behind the lead group, Stybar will give his wheel, push him, lead the chase etc. No way Stybar gets any chance except if there is a situation as with Terpstra or if Boonen has really bad luck, and still, Stybar is no Terpstra for a 10K solo. That being said I don't want to take away anything from Stybar's talent, but reading some comments here I really think some have no clue at all what is going on in a team like Quickstep at the moment. This isn't Dwars door Vlaanderen and this isn't even any ordinary Roubaix (if that exists).

 

[LugHugger]

Re:

Ridiculous is that some here don't even give him a position amongst the 3-4 favorites for the race, that's all I am saying. Even his closest competitors see him as the man to beat, but some here have obviously raced against him the last couple of days it seems.

People giving e.g. Stybar more stars must do a reality check: when Boonen flats or is a minute behind the lead group, Stybar will give his wheel, push him, lead the chase etc. No way Stybar gets any chance except if there is a situation as with Terpstra or if Boonen has really bad luck, and still, Stybar is no Terpstra for a 10K solo. That being said I don't want to take away anything from Stybar's talent, but reading some comments here I really think some have no clue at all what is going on in a team like Quickstep at the moment. This isn't Dwars door Vlaanderen and this isn't even any ordinary Roubaix (if that exists).

Stybar had an equal chance to win in 2013 (albeit no Tom that year). There's no way he's stopping for anybody if that scenario repeats itself on Sunday and Lefevre is pragmatic enough to not let emotions jeopardise a podium placing.

 

[DFA123]

Exactly. Stybar and Terpstra will be allowed to rider their own races. The Boonen sentiment card is being overplayed - he's not strong enough to win nowdays anyway unless Quickstep use their team to create multiple threats. Sure, the ideal scenario for Quickstep and the fans would be if he could win; but they are not going to recklessly sabotage Stybar or Terpstra's chances to achieve that. The team winning is still the most important thing; perhaps followed by not upsetting the star riders on your roster who won't be retiring.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Stybar has been racing like a grandma lately.

Boonen is the big gun, but Terpstra is lurking behind and is on some fine, fine form lately. He will be a big outsider. Lampaert is a super strong rider, especially for Roubaix. Trentin is always good, maybe better in Belgium, but technically Stybar should be that as well given just how explosive he is. Yet he was nowhere to be found the last couple of weeks.

 

[Netserk]

Upsetting? I think everyone (perhaps bar Terpstra) would gladly do whatever it takes to help Tommeke win.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Upsetting? I think everyone (perhaps bar Terpstra) would gladly do whatever it takes to help Tommeke win.

Given Boonen's legacy, but actually even more his personality, Im inclined to agree. Genuinely seems to be one of the nicest people out there, only heard good things about him.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Stybar has been racing like a grandma lately.

Boonen is the big gun, but Terpstra is lurking behind and is on some fine, fine form lately. He will be a big outsider. Lampaert is a super strong rider, especially for Roubaix. Trentin is always good, maybe better in Belgium, but technically Stybar should be that as well given just how explosive he is. Yet he was nowhere to be found the last couple of weeks.

I think Stybar's form could be a bit deceptive, perhaps not, but you can never be sure about a rider on a strong team. Quickstep had riders win 3 of his last 5 races and had multiple riders in the top 10 most of the time. So there's a possibility that he could have just been the back up card told to sit tight and remain in the peloton, while other riders tried their hand to attack. With all the attacks sticking, then he was left with no role to play as a protaganist.

Or, as you said, he could just have poor form right now. Perhaps peaked for Strade Bianche and hasn't quite been able to hold the level since then.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Upsetting? I think everyone (perhaps bar Terpstra) would gladly do whatever it takes to help Tommeke win.

You think that if Stybar and Boonen are in a group of say 6 riders, 25km from the finish, Stybar would give Boonen his front wheel if there was a puncture? Or even that he would drop out of the front group to try to pace Boonen back in?

 

[Volderke]

Re: Re:

Upsetting? I think everyone (perhaps bar Terpstra) would gladly do whatever it takes to help Tommeke win.

You think that if Stybar and Boonen are in a group of say 6 riders, 25km from the finish, Stybar would give Boonen his front wheel if there was a puncture? Or even that he would drop out of the front group to try to pace Boonen back in?

Ofcourse he will give his wheel, his bidon, almost his life to get Boonen back in the race. What are you thinking? That he won't do that? Seriously? I mean, seriously?

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

Upsetting? I think everyone (perhaps bar Terpstra) would gladly do whatever it takes to help Tommeke win.

You think that if Stybar and Boonen are in a group of say 6 riders, 25km from the finish, Stybar would give Boonen his front wheel if there was a puncture? Or even that he would drop out of the front group to try to pace Boonen back in?

Ofcourse he will give his wheel, his bidon, almost his life to get Boonen back in the race. What are you thinking? That he won't do that? Seriously? I mean, seriously?

No, he won't. That kind of manoeuvre almost never works and everybody knows it (well, he does get the wheel but my comment is related to the reentering the front group part...). So in that case, they need to at least keep one rider up front if they have that possibility (although I'm quite certain that if Stybar is there, Terpstra will also be there, and then we have a different situation where it would make sense to sacrifice Stybar's chances).

I honestly don't think that a big team like QuickStep will put all their eggs in one basket but I wouldn't mind if they do. Especially because Terpstra seems dangerously strong at the moment and I'm not sure my love of cycling would survive his winning another time.

 

[Breh]

Ofcourse Lefevre will risk a podium if it slightly increases the possibility on a win from Boonen. The hype in Flanders is unreal, he knows that and a podium doesn't mean anything.

But he isn't calling the shots during the race anyway.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

Upsetting? I think everyone (perhaps bar Terpstra) would gladly do whatever it takes to help Tommeke win.

You think that if Stybar and Boonen are in a group of say 6 riders, 25km from the finish, Stybar would give Boonen his front wheel if there was a puncture? Or even that he would drop out of the front group to try to pace Boonen back in?

Ofcourse he will give his wheel, his bidon, almost his life to get Boonen back in the race. What are you thinking? That he won't do that? Seriously? I mean, seriously?

Eh, no way that's gonna happen.

 

[classicomano]

Upsetting? I think everyone (perhaps bar Terpstra) would gladly do whatever it takes to help Tommeke win.

You think that if Stybar and Boonen are in a group of say 6 riders, 25km from the finish, Stybar would give Boonen his front wheel if there was a puncture? Or even that he would drop out of the front group to try to pace Boonen back in?

Ofcourse he will give his wheel, his bidon, almost his life to get Boonen back in the race. What are you thinking? That he won't do that? Seriously? I mean, seriously?

Eh, no way that's gonna happen.

Yes, yes it will happen.

Ofcourse Lefevre will risk a podium if it slightly increases the possibility on a win from Boonen. The hype in Flanders is unreal, he knows that and a podium doesn't mean anything.

But he isn't calling the shots during the race anyway.

And this.