115th Paris-Roubaix 2017 - April 9, 257k

[Brullnux]

Re:

In my opinion, we never saw the "real" sagan in flat cobbles. Last year he was very strong, he rode something like 40 km with cancellara against a group of more than 20 riders and he still rode 30 km alone against boonen, stannard, hagen,etc. He was almost inside the top10

This is true, but Sagan seemed in slightly better shape last year. Not much but a bit better.

 

[trucido]

Re: Re:

In my opinion, we never saw the "real" sagan in flat cobbles. Last year he was very strong, he rode something like 40 km with cancellara against a group of more than 20 riders and he still rode 30 km alone against boonen, stannard, hagen,etc. He was almost inside the top10

This is true, but Sagan seemed in slightly better shape last year. Not much but a bit better.

Agreed, don't think this year's Sagan is on par with the previous. He got lucky last year with no crashes or illnesses.

This year he was sick and crashed in S-B, has been feeling the pressure and now has crashed in RvV. But hey, that's bike racing for you.

 

[Netserk]

I can't really see past Sagan, Moustache, and Tommeke. If not one of them, I think it'll be an outsider on the same level as Hayman, O'Grady, and Vansummeren.

 

[MagnusMagnussen]

Sep Van Marcke DNS.

http://sporza.be/cm/sporza/wielrennen/1.2943048

 

[Scott SoCal]

Re: Re:

I don't think Phil made this decision...

Yep.

One leader for QS. I understand but Phil will never have a better opportunity. Dude is en fuego.

I'm baffled really. Boonen's chances are improved not disimproved by having a Gilbert in this form there, as long as Gilbert is there to attack. But instead they send him to the Ardennes where they already have two favourites for FW and LBL? Is yet another AGR really the height of their ambitions for him?

Agreed. If Gilbert were to show up at P-R he would be heavily marked. If Phil is covered like a blanket then Boonen has perhaps less attention.

Of course battle plans are out the window as soon as the first shot is fired. But it's a curious decision.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Might be crazy, but Movistar doesn't actually have that bad of a team for Roubaix. They have some very respectable rouleurs who potentially could do well here: Sutterlin, Dowsett, Erviti, Oliveira and Bennati. Could see a random top-10 for one of those guys and not necessarily Erviti.

 

[frisenfruitig]

Re: Re:

I don't think Phil made this decision...

Yep.

One leader for QS. I understand but Phil will never have a better opportunity. Dude is en fuego.

I'm baffled really. Boonen's chances are improved not disimproved by having a Gilbert in this form there, as long as Gilbert is there to attack. But instead they send him to the Ardennes where they already have two favourites for FW and LBL? Is yet another AGR really the height of their ambitions for him?

Agreed. If Gilbert were to show up at P-R he would be heavily marked. If Phil is covered like a blanket then Boonen has perhaps less attention.

Of course battle plans are out the window as soon as the first shot is fired. But it's a curious decision.

I dunno, seems like a pretty sensible plan to give Gilbert a rest for the Amstel considering they have Terpstra, Stybar, Lampaert to pave the way for Boonen in PR. It sounds like they're going to put everything on Boonen anyway which is understandable considering he's in good form and it's the last race of his career. I personally am not even convinced Gilbert is capable of winning PR tbh. I think he needs the hills to drop people.

 

[DirtyWorks]

Re: Re:

its probably because he does more work than he others though

Exactly. The guy has been a one-man team for years and is still winning, or nearly so. Not that many riders can, and do, make the race dramatic quite like Sagan.

The great thing about P-R is you know who the top contenders are, and then there is a HUGE amount of dumb luck that goes into who ends up in the first group before the last meaningful sector.

I hope it's a safe journey for all the riders this year.

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

Might be crazy, but Movistar doesn't actually have that bad of a team for Roubaix. They have some very respectable rouleurs who potentially could do well here: Sutterlin, Dowsett, Erviti, Oliveira and Bennati. Could see a random top-10 for one of those guys and not necessarily Erviti.

Oliveira managed to finish Flanders in a decent although irrelevant position within Kristoff's group. Erviti was Movistar's second best at 8:35. Benatti and Sutterlin could do well, but Dowsett seems to me the kind of rider whose bike handling is well below his engine

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

Sep Van Marcke DNS.

http://sporza.be/cm/sporza/wielrennen/1.2943048

I suppose riding P-R with a broken finger is gonna be a bit uncomfortable...

 

[Poursuivant]

Great OP

I predict GVA to get his first monument, with Durbridge in second and Boonen to get caught behind a crash, coming into the velodrome waving a la Cancellara.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

From Sagan's Facebook: I don’t feel very well at the moment and hope my form gets better for Paris-Roubaix.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

From Sagan's Facebook: I don’t feel very well at the moment and hope my form gets better for Paris-Roubaix.

I doubt his rivals are going to fall for the old talking down your chances trick. Still, looks like he at least picked up something from riding with Contador in the last couple of years.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

From Sagan's Facebook: I don’t feel very well at the moment and hope my form gets better for Paris-Roubaix.

I doubt his rivals are going to fall for the old talking down your chances trick. Still, looks like he at least picked up something from riding with Contador in the last couple of years.

Sagan is usually pretty honest though. I don't remember him writing something like this before.

 

[jaylew]

Where's the startlist? Can Max or a mod add it to the opening post?

 

[jaylew]

*****
****Sagan, GVA
***Terpstra, Kristoff, Degenkolb
**Durbridge, Trentin, Boonen, Démare
*Stybar, EBH, Naesen, Greipel, Stannard, Rowe, plus a bunch of other guys

I think Boonen is being hyped a bit too much. Sure, he was good last year but I think it would have to be a similar type situation from an early break for him to win - I don't know if I see it.

 

[Jagartrott]

***** No-one
**** Degenkolb, Boonen, GVA, Sagan
*** Stybar, Naessen, Terpstra
** Stannard, Rowe, Keukeleire, Lampaert, Kristoff, Demare, Gougeard
* Erviti, Chavanel, Roelandts, Durbridge, Italian surprise, Boom

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Re:

Where's the startlist? Can Max or a mod add it to the opening post?

Done that.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

From Sagan's Facebook: I don’t feel very well at the moment and hope my form gets better for Paris-Roubaix.

I doubt his rivals are going to fall for the old talking down your chances trick. Still, looks like he at least picked up something from riding with Contador in the last couple of years.

Haha, I chuckled there.

 

[Volderke]

*****Boonen
****Sagan, GVA, Naesen, Degenkolb, Terpstra
*** Kristoff, Démare, Rowe, Stybar, Stannard

Boonen is the man to beat. If you don't feel that way, you have no clue about racing as even the pros think Boonen is the man to beat.

Sagan still having consequences of that hard fall in Flanders. I think he will not be 100% anymore.
GvA still has to get rid of stronger sprinters.
Naesen's star is rising.
Degenkolb is not made for Flanders (too fat) but perfectly made for Roubaix, only wonder what shape he is in exactly
Terpstra may be a d%^& for some, he is still a hell of a rider on pave

Demare and Rowe should maybe get one more star, it is their moment to prove they are worth it.
Kristoff was never good in Roubaix. Stannard/Stybar could be close but I don't see them winning.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

*****
****Sagan, GVA
***Terpstra, Kristoff, Degenkolb
**Durbridge, Trentin, Boonen, Démare
*Stybar, EBH, Naesen, Greipel, Stannard, Rowe, plus a bunch of other guys

I think Boonen is being hyped a bit too much. Sure, he was good last year but I think it would have to be a similar type situation from an early break for him to win - I don't know if I see it.

He looked a lot better in the Ronde this year than he did last, and with no other clear favourite, Boonen is certainly looking good before the flag drops

 

[WheelofGear]

***** None this year.
**** Sagan, Degenkolb, GVA
*** Boonen, Terpstra, Naesen, Kristoff
** Démare, Durbridge, Trentin, Van Baarle, Stybar, Stannard
* Hayman, EBH, Moscon, Keukeleire, Rowe, Lampaert, Debusschere

 

[StryderHells]

Why are people rating Sagan as one of the top favourites in this race? Sure he is massively talented but yet to show he can be in the finish of Roubaix.I think he's in with a shot but shouldn't be on the top line odds wise

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

Why are people rating Sagan as one of the top favourites in this race? Sure he is massively talented but yet to show he can be in the finish of Roubaix.I think he's in with a shot but shouldn't be on the top line odds wise

I think it's because he is the best rider in the world and yet to have a clean run in Paris-Roubaix in a time of his career where he is going well. And in the Tour he has shown to be very good on the Paris-Roubaix-like cobbles, so for me it is no wonder. His bike-handling skills definitely also speak in his favour.

So I haven't yet seen the proof that he isn't able to win in Roubaix, but it's true that proof that he indeed is able to win has not been presented either. So it will end up in a discussion of beliefs with no real good points to either side.

I, for one, believe that he does have the abilities to win and hopefully he will finally prove that this Sunday.

 

[Leffe_Bruin]

*** Sagan, GVA, Degenkolb, Boonen
** Terpstra, Kristoff, Naesen
* Stybar, Van Baarle, Rowe, Stannard, Demare, EBH, Stuyven, Durbridge