2011 prediction game

[Tuarts]

You get two picks, if one is the right one, you get points.

 

[luckyboy]

Got 2nd and 5th correct, but in the wrong order.

 

[Tuarts]

Sorry for the lateness. Here's the stages results:

And the new table:

Some minor changes, minessa still way out in front but the pack behind has shifted around a bit - maybe stepping up the chase?

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Oh and there's one more prediction that's not on that picture, of Armchair Cyclist. Not sure when exactly the race started (I'm not going to try and work out timestamps and timezones in this 15mins I got) but he put his predictions in soon after I posted, so I added them to my sheet.

Thanks for allowing me in, even though I ran the deadline seriously close. I'm not enough of a threat to the leaders to make your understanding and gentlemanliness too controversial, I hope.

 

[taiwan]

I thought I was going to at least get the team classement right, but no. Nil points.

Gah!

 

[Eric8-A]

New goal is to try and crack the top 3.

 

[Tuarts]

The "sprinters" Rojas and Impey in the 2nd group haha

 

[taiwan]

Tour classifications are the next date, right?

 

[Tuarts]

Sorry they're late, I had to wait on something first. Here's the GC points scored for the Classifications in the Dauphine total points scored for the Dauphine. Almost a mirror image of the stages selected, the Classifications were quite difficult, bar the Young Rider but a few managed to pick JRod in the other jersey get a nice amount of points!

And here's how the overall table looks:

 

[Tuarts]

Now, next race is the TDF, 2 weeks away now. Do we have all the profiles up and available now? Need to decide on individual stages, I'm up for suggestions atm. Might do the same as last time with Giro, 1 x sprint 1 x TT, 2 x Mountains, 1 x Queen Stage, but it all depends on the profiles and sufficient gaps between stages I guess. Thoughts?

Edit: Brief look seems like it might be best to do without the TT. Alpe d'Huez is stage 19 which should be the queen stage. Galibier on the stage before (18) is a good climbing stage as well. Stage 12 + 14 are the Pyrenees climbs. Stage 4/6 look like good rouleur staages and then there's a dime a dozen sprint stages, probably Stage 1 at this stage as form will be unknown.

 

[Ferminal]

My choice would be:

3, 8 or 9, 12, 14 or 18, 19.

 

[Cobblestoned]

Ok, different approach that might work:

Under no circumstances I want the TT to be included or beeing predicted.

 

[luckyboy]

4: Lorient - Mûr-de-Bretagne Hilly
8: Aigurande - Super-Besse Sancy Intermediate
12: Cugnaux - Luz-Ardiden MTF
18: Pinerolo - Galibier-Serre Chevalier MTF
19: Modane Valfréjus - Alpe-d’Huez MTF
20: Grenoble - Grenoble TT
21: Créteil - Paris Champs-Élysées Sprint

Really can't pick between stages 18 and 19, but I think that would be pretty doable. Maybe leave out the TT.

I think the Champs-Élysées would be the best sprint stage just because its the Champs-Élysées.

 

[Eric8-A]

I'm still in the top 5. My goal's still realistic

For the TdF stages, Id' say have the TTT and the penultimate TT. In my opinion, leave out the Champs Elysses, it's going to be way too predictable with Cavendish there.

 

[Tuarts]

Anyone else?

My thoughts with the Champs Élysées is that by then, the green jersey will be won or battled between 2/3 people and you would expect maybe at least half the sprinters to have retired. At least from Stage 1/2 etc they will all be there and you wont necessarily know what form or condition they are in, making the predictions harder to pick the right ones.

 

[lancaster]

i do think a sprint stage should be included, but not champs elysees. there should be a chance of a break away win (however small) something with a bump in it, or that goes along the coast (echelons), or has non tarmac surface (just dreaming)

i'll have a look at profiles this evening for an actual suggestion but i'm afraid this post is really anything but the "victory parade".

 

[lancaster]

1Passage du Gois – Mont des Alouettes 191.5 km (119 mi) looks interesting
2Les Essarts – Les Essarts 23 km (14 mi) TTT maybe
3Olonne-sur-Mer – Redon 198 km (123 mi) no interest
4Lorient – Mûr-de-Bretagne 172.5 km (107 mi) cool
5Carhaix – Cap Fréhel 164.5 km (102 mi) if we do just 1 sprinter stage this should be it
6Dinan – Lisieux 226.5 km (141 mi) i don't know the roads but possibly
7Le Mans – Chateauroux 218 km (135 mi) boring
8Aigurande – Super-Besse 189 km (117 mi) if someone thinks some of the fast guys will make it, might be a good inter stage
9Issoire – Saint-Flour 208 km (129 mi) might be better than stage 8 but one or other
10Aurillac – Carmaux 158 km (98 mi) reasonable bunch sprint that isn't nailed on.
11Blaye-les-Mines – Lavaur 167.5 km (104 mi) boring
12Cugnaux – Luz-Ardiden 211 km (131 mi) 1st proper mountain
13Pau – Lourdes 152.5 km (95 mi) not as good as previous day
14Saint-Gaudens – Plateau de Beille 168.5 km (105 mi) good stage but maybe not as good as 12
15Limoux – Montpellier 192.5 km (120 mi) boring
16Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux – Gap 162.5 km (101 mi) intrigued in case fast men make it probably too close to big mtf
17Gap – Pinerolo 179 km (111 mi) really good stage for the lesser names
18Pinerolo – Col du Galibier / Serre Chevalier 200.5 km (125 mi) got to be done
19Modane – L'Alpe d'Huez 109.5 km (68 mi) as above
20Grenoble – Grenoble 42.5 km (26 mi) for variety
21Creteil – Paris (Champs-Élysées)... 95 km (59 mi) boring

i really hope this doesn't come across as me being obnoxious


so

18 and 12 2 big mountains
19 alpe
9 or 8 or 17 an inter
5 or 10 a sprint
2 or 20 probably a TT
1 or 4

if it was me picking, want a bit of spread date wise
1, 5, 9, 12, 18, 19 and no tt (shame but..)

my other idea, maybe pick yellow (and other jerseys if interest, i don't think i'd bother) as of 1st rest day. thoughts?

 

[luckyboy]

Anyone else?

My thoughts with the Champs Élysées is that by then, the green jersey will be won or battled between 2/3 people and you would expect maybe at least half the sprinters to have retired. At least from Stage 1/2 etc they will all be there and you wont necessarily know what form or condition they are in, making the predictions harder to pick the right ones.

Ah yeah, didn't think about that.

In that case, stages: 4, 5, 8, 12, 18, 19, 20/2

 

[The Hitch]

Personally I think Luz Ardiden, Alpe and the itt are musts.

 

[Tuarts]

Right I think we can safely lock in stages 12,18,19. From what people have written, no TT seems to be favourite 4-2 which makes keeping Galibier easier. It's either that or the TT really.

4 or 8 for the Roueler. Will stage 5 really be a classic sprint? Seems like a lot of selection will be made but if so, then the consensus seems to be for it, which would mean Stages 5,8,12,18,19.

Decent enough spread there.

 

[Eric8-A]

A TT is needed for the Tour

 

[lancaster]

if TT is a must, I vote for the TTT purely because i think there's more likely to be a bit of variety in selections.

 

[luckyboy]

4 or 8 for the Roueler. Will stage 5 really be a classic sprint? Seems like a lot of selection will be made but if so, then the consensus seems to be for it, which would mean Stages 5,8,12,18,19.

Decent enough spread there.

Yeah that looks ok, add the TTT though.


Stage 5 probably will be a sprint, last few kms are flat/downhill after that little bump, but there's a small chance an attacker will manage to cling on.

 

[El Pistolero]

Right I think we can safely lock in stages 12,18,19. From what people have written, no TT seems to be favourite 4-2 which makes keeping Galibier easier. It's either that or the TT really.

4 or 8 for the Roueler. Will stage 5 really be a classic sprint? Seems like a lot of selection will be made but if so, then the consensus seems to be for it, which would mean Stages 5,8,12,18,19.

Decent enough spread there.

Stage 1 should be done as well. Predicting the first yellow jersey.

 

[Ferminal]

Yeah that looks ok, add the TTT though.


Stage 5 probably will be a sprint, last few kms are flat/downhill after that little bump, but there's a small chance an attacker will manage to cling on.

You have the wrong profile

Stage 5 is the windy day, and the finish has a ~5% rise over 1km between 4-3km, then the final km is slightly uphill.

Nothing serious, but combined with the wind something could happen.