2011 Tour de France, Stage 12: Cugnaux - Luz-Ardiden, 209 km

[b.broadhurst]

If it weren't Bastille Day, then I could see that happening, but as it is Bastille Day, I think that alone will prompt the French teams to be plenty active.

Actually, I wouldn't be overly surprised to see Voeckler go on the attack at some point - what's he got to lose, really? It's unlikely he'll be able to hold on to the MJ by riding defensively, so why not give it a go? How awesome would it be to see a Frenchman in yellow going on the attack on Bastille Day!

I think this will exactly happen, definitely not the type of guy to tone it down, the only thing he knows is to attack. If he attacks will GC respond?

 

[Chef_Vodnik]

How awesome would it be to see a Frenchman in yellow going on the attack on Bastille Day!

The expression you are looking for is "very"

 

[mewmewmew13]

Very nice job on this thread Jobiwan! excellent pics to accompany the usual suspects.
I would expect Contador to take this because it's time and he needs to---or go home.

In the back of my mind I have also been thinking of many other Spaniards...some guys with heart and good luck.
I would love this to be a surprise win for one of these guys.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Voeckler words, 'I'm not one of the world's strongest climbers'

So i don't think he is confident in being up there with the big boys tomorrow.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/voeckler-expects-to-lose-tour-de-france-lead-at-luz-ardiden

i'm not saying he's going to podium but do teop ten, he doesn';t need to be one of the best climbers to do that

 

[The Hitch]

Ah, you mean he is not good enough. Sorry. He certainly hasn't looked great so far, but his Dauphine last year suggested plenty of stage racing potential. Of course, that doesn't necessarily translate into GT performance.

His performance at Kronplatz 2010 shows he can cut it in the big mountains. That was a tt so everyone going all out, no slipstreaming, no tactics no sandbagging.

Anyone that does well there has talent. I used that result to hype Gadret for the Giro this year and it came off. Uran did slightly worse but hes younger, so his 7th place should likewise be a sign of things to come.

 

[The Barb]

Moncoutie has dropped 5 mins+ on the last two flat stages .... he's getting ready to attack on Bastille Day as he's done before. A stage win and polka dot jersey would be fabulous in his last Tour.

 

[VeloCity]

I think this will exactly happen, definitely not the type of guy to tone it down, the only thing he knows is to attack. If he attacks will GC respond?

Don't think they see him as much of a threat for the overall, especially with so much climbing left in the Tour, so probably would let him go and enjoy his moment in the sun - but keeping him on a bit of a leash, as the peloton has probably learned its lesson about letting breakaways get out of hand after Pereiro in '06

One guy who hasn't been mentioned much is LL Sanchez - not great in the high mountains, but he's not a bad climber, been pretty aggressive, seems to be on good form, probably feeling pretty confident after his stage win, high up on GC - he could be a good rider to send in an early break. Think the GC teams would have to chase, and that might allow Gesink to sit back a bit.

 

[Angliru]

Anthony Charteau has a better chance than Martin.

Now I wouldn't go that far.

 

[Angliru]

The point is that the Schlecks and Evans are clearly the favourites for the organisers, the media and seemingly a lot of the crowds.

They get touted as the big favourties while Sanchez and Basso dont even get mentioned as contenders (Richie Porte being touted instead for a top 5) and Contador gets booed.

The events of stage 1 create the idea that ASO is in on it too.

Its Spaniards vs Establishment.

Besides, if you want to give it a rest then thats fine, I dont have to. I still see people complaining about aerodynamics from 1989 and Rasmussen and Lance and injuries, and the Robert Millar Vuelta even gets brought up now and again, so untill I no longer see Samu listed as 2.30 back on his rivals, I claim a right to moan about an incident that took place not 22 years ago but last week.

Hear Hear!!

 

[Duartista]

His performance at Kronplatz 2010 shows he can cut it in the big mountains. That was a tt so everyone going all out, no slipstreaming, no tactics no sandbagging.

Anyone that does well there has talent. I used that result to hype Gadret for the Giro this year and it came off. Uran did slightly worse but hes younger, so his 7th place should likewise be a sign of things to come.

All that is very true, but my post was actually referring to Coppel.

 

[The Hitch]

Don't think they see him as much of a threat for the overall, especially with so much climbing left in the Tour, so probably would let him go and enjoy his moment in the sun - but keeping him on a bit of a leash, as the peloton has probably learned its lesson about letting breakaways get out of hand after Pereiro in '06

One guy who hasn't been mentioned much is LL Sanchez - not great in the high mountains, but he's not a bad climber, been pretty aggressive, seems to be on good form, probably feeling pretty confident after his stage win, high up on GC - he could be a good rider to send in an early break. Think the GC teams would have to chase, and that might allow Gesink to sit back a bit.

I dont see them letting a guy who is 1 minute in front of them on GC go

 

[VeloCity]

Well that's why I said early break

 

[VeloCity]

I dont see them letting a guy who is 1 minute in front of them on GC go

Well that's why I said "early break", cause yeah, he's not going to get far unless he goes early.

 

[Angliru]

Seems spot on to me.

I guess I have to give my official pick. Here it goes.

Frank will ride such a hard tempo that only Basso, Alberto, Sammy and Andy can hold on. In the 2nd to last kilometer, Contador will attack to see what he's made of, and only Andy will be able to follow. Frank, Ivan, and Sammy will just ride to limit time.

Andy and Alberto will gain 25 seconds on this little group, then Andy will gap Contador by about 5 seconds in the sprint!!!!!![/B]

Boy, I hope I'm right.

(Although, I could see Andy not challenging Contador for the sprint if it comes to them two, a little thank you for Tourmalet last year. Then Andy could save himself for his Tour-clinching win on Plateau de Beille! )

ANDY FTW!!

You were doing just fine until the bolded part and then the train just ran off the tracks and took out an entire tiny little Luxembourg hamlet.

The way I see it is if Contador is feeling good, he launches one of his patented blistering attacks with only Andy attempting to respond. The others that are left ride at an increased but controlled tempo with Basso setting the pace for Samu, Frank, Gesink and a surprise: Velits (sorry Bavarian, Tony was dropped by Sylvester Szmyd and the Leopard domestiques) at 1 km after the start of the ultimate climb).

Andy mistakenly takes all of Contador's previous crashes and bad positioning in the peloton for weakness, tries to match Contador's initial acceleration and blows up spectacularly, similar to Tony Martin's explosion in a recent stage race. He's reeled in by a Basso led elite chase group, which he attempts to catch a ride with but he's in the red and is spit out the back like so many peanut shells. Frank, before Andy is dropped, has a few words with him about the 2010 Vuelta, takes Andy's waterbottle from its cage and continues on leaving Andy pedaling squares, and turning his head in shame (hiding his tears and sobbing) away from the moto's camera that is shadowing him all the way to the finish, eventually losing the entire time he had on Contador in addition to 39 seconds.

Contador goes on to the stage win of course and Basso and Samu eventually drop Frank who, in a moment of regret, loses their wheels, turning to look for lil' bro. Not seeing him effects his motivation and in turn he too is pedaling squares and loses 30 seconds to Basso and Samu, but rides in with Gesink and Velits.

All in all a beautiful day in my world!

 

[Escarabajo]

Moncoutie has dropped 5 mins+ on the last two flat stages .... he's getting ready to attack on Bastille Day as he's done before. A stage win and polka dot jersey would be fabulous in his last Tour.

+1. Bingo.

 

[jobiwan]

You were doing just fine until the bolded part and then the train just ran off the tracks and took out an entire tiny little Luxembourg hamlet.

The way I see it is if Contador is feeling good, he launches one of his patented blistering attacks with only Andy attempting to respond. The others that are left ride at an increased but controlled tempo with Basso setting the pace for Samu, Frank, Gesink and a surprise: Velits (sorry Bavarian, Tony was dropped by Sylvester Szmyd and the Leopard domestiques) at 1 km after the start of the ultimate climb).

Andy mistakenly takes all of Contador's previous crashes and bad positioning in the peloton for weakness, tries to match Contador's initial acceleration and blows up spectacularly, similar to Tony Martin's explosion in a recent stage race. He's reeled in by a Basso led elite chase group, which he attempts to catch a ride with but he's in the red and is spit out the back like so many peanut shells. Frank, before Andy is dropped, has a few words with him about the 2010 Vuelta, takes Andy's waterbottle from its cage and continues on leaving Andy pedaling squares, and turning his head in shame (hiding his tears and sobbing) away from the moto's camera that is shadowing him all the way to the finish, eventually losing the entire time he had on Contador in addition to 39 seconds.

Contador goes on to the stage win of course and Basso and Samu eventually drop Frank who, in a moment of regret, loses their wheels, turning to look for lil' bro. Not seeing him effects his motivation and in turn he too is pedaling squares and loses 30 seconds to Basso and Samu, but rides in with Gesink and Velits.

All in all a beautiful day in my world!

Oh you evil, evil man!
I might go hide in a dark room for 4 days should you be right!

 

[Tuarts]

A select main contender group of about 20 will get over Tourmalet and then will probably swell to about 30-40 by the bas of Luz Ardiden.

After that, who knows? Battle of the Domestiques will commence: Saxo Bank v Leopard v Szmyd, the strongest in the break will probably take the win. There'll be one or two failed attacks before Frank goes, Contador chases and then there's ony 5-6 left. Gesink/Kloeden likely the first two of the big names dropped. Basso might get dropped too, only to surge past them riding high tempo, grinning like a chesire. The way I see it:

Contador
A.Schleck

*distance*

I.Basso
S.Sanchez
C.Evans
F.Schleck

*distance*

R. Gesink
A. Kloeden
D. Cunego

Then its the rest such as:

L. Leipheimer (understudy to Kloeden as well)
R.Taaramae
P.Velits
N. Roche
J. Coppel
K De Weert
Danielson or Vandevelde
LL.Sanchez (if Gesink fails, he'll be up there imo)

Complete Outsiders

Uran
Karpets
Jeannesson
Vaitkus
Arroyo
J-P.Peraud
The Other Garmin Guy

===

One thing for sure - I'm looking forward to the stage - can't wait!

 

[Mambo95]

Breakaway or GC man tomorrow?

I reckon GC man. I think Europcar will ride on the front chasing for most of the flat bit, and no-one too good will be allowed to go in the break.

 

[dgodave]

Since this stage goes from Cunego to Luz Ardiden, I give Damiano a better chance than usual.
.

 

[frenchfry]

Moncoutie has dropped 5 mins+ on the last two flat stages .... he's getting ready to attack on Bastille Day as he's done before. A stage win and polka dot jersey would be fabulous in his last Tour.

I don't see it happening. I sense that he isn't in top form this year, the losses on the flat stages might not have been planned. In any case, the descent from the Tourmalet will not help him if he breaks away on the climb.

 

[jobiwan]

Another thing. The way the Tour has unfolded I can definitely see Andy or Alberto winning the KOM jersey.

As I doubt Hoogerland can get in the break tomorrow, although it would be awesome, anyone who gets in the break will not have a big enough tally even if they win max points on Anzican and Tourmalet.

As it's likely that Andy, Alberto or those other few will win tomorrow, that's 40 points in the bag for someone. And with 4 HC summit finishes, that's a lot of points for the GC guys.

I think Andy's in yellow after tomorrow, but Alberto could well be in Polka-dot.

Although, yes, Moncoutie could surprise for sure.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

His performance at Kronplatz 2010 shows he can cut it in the big mountains. That was a tt so everyone going all out, no slipstreaming, no tactics no sandbagging.

Anyone that does well there has talent. I used that result to hype Gadret for the Giro this year and it came off. Uran did slightly worse but hes younger, so his 7th place should likewise be a sign of things to come.

he was talking about coppel, coppel didn't do a giro

 

[khodder]

I expect Kreuziger to make some kind of a move today, he lost another 5 minutes on stage 11 similar to the 5 he lost on stage 10. Saving legs for the mountains for a stage win/shot at the Polkas me thinks.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

I expect Kreuziger to make some kind of a move today, he lost another 5 minutes on stage 11 similar to the 5 he lost on stage 10. Saving legs for the mountains for a stage win/shot at the Polkas me thinks.

more kreuziger being tired from the giro and crashes

 

[Angliru]

You're probably right with how they will use Frank.

As for the sprint, I'm probably thinking more along the lines of an attack in the last KM rather than a sprint, just didn't word that correctly.

Because you are right, the only time Andy won a mountain sprint, it took Sanchez cramping otherwise he would have got it easily.

You are the first Andy fan to admit that was the reason for that win. All others are in denial. You continue to impress. Keep up the good work and we'll soon cure you of of this Andy illness you're inflicted with.