2011 Tour de France, Stage 12: Cugnaux - Luz-Ardiden, 209 km

[b.broadhurst]

Tomorrow is the first day that we can tell how the Giro has affected the peloton.

Gadret, Kiryienka and Kern withdrawn while Kreuziger is miles off the pace.

SaxoBank got too much riding in their legs?

 

[The Hitch]

lol this thread has almosts as many posts as the stage 11 thread already. Expect the Paris ROubaix 2000+ record to be under threat.

You were doing just fine until the bolded part and then the train just ran off the tracks and took out an entire tiny little Luxembourg hamlet.

The way I see it is if Contador is feeling good, he launches one of his patented blistering attacks with only Andy attempting to respond. The others that are left ride at an increased but controlled tempo with Basso setting the pace for Samu, Frank, Gesink and a surprise: Velits (sorry Bavarian, Tony was dropped by Sylvester Szmyd and the Leopard domestiques) at 1 km after the start of the ultimate climb).

Andy mistakenly takes all of Contador's previous crashes and bad positioning in the peloton for weakness, tries to match Contador's initial acceleration and blows up spectacularly, similar to Tony Martin's explosion in a recent stage race. He's reeled in by a Basso led elite chase group, which he attempts to catch a ride with but he's in the red and is spit out the back like so many peanut shells. Frank, before Andy is dropped, has a few words with him about the 2010 Vuelta, takes Andy's waterbottle from its cage and continues on leaving Andy pedaling squares, and turning his head in shame (hiding his tears and sobbing) away from the moto's camera that is shadowing him all the way to the finish, eventually losing the entire time he had on Contador in addition to 39 seconds.

Contador goes on to the stage win of course and Basso and Samu eventually drop Frank who, in a moment of regret, loses their wheels, turning to look for lil' bro. Not seeing him effects his motivation and in turn he too is pedaling squares and loses 30 seconds to Basso and Samu, but rides in with Gesink and Velits.

All in all a beautiful day in my world!

Did Andy step on your dog?

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Does anyone have the last few km street map?

Thanks

 

[Angliru]

lol this thread has almosts as many posts as the stage 11 thread already. Expect the Paris ROubaix 2000+ record to be under threat.




Did Andy step on your dog?

Nah! I'm channeling all my love for Cuddles into Andy, since Cuddles no longer annoys me. Andy has kicked Cuddles to the curb in my world of annoying cycling personalities. Andy is king!

 

[Scirea]

Both Riis and Contador said that they would ride defensively and others would have to take the initiativ. I dont think we will see SBS pulling on Tourmalet. Leopard will do that anyways to put the hurt on Evans etc.

I wont rule out that Bertie will attack on Luz Ardiden but it will depend on his knee. But I think it will be Leopard who will do most of the work in front.

1. It's true they don't have to go all-out in the first mountain stage.

2. Both of them saying they won't could be the biggest indicator that they will. If Contador feels good on Tourmalet he'll attack so if you see his team at the front on the last kilometers of Tourmalet or at the start of Luz Ardiden, fireworks are coming.

 

[UpTheRoad]

I'd like to see AC and AS channel AC and The Chicken on the Col de Peyresourde in 2007. AC launches attack after attack, only this time AS cannot respond to all of them and is dropped.

 

[il_pirata]

I think Leopard gave away their tactics when Voeckler attacked (well, sort of!) in yellow the other day. They chased down him and Martin, which to me says they plan to gun it tomorrow and take yellow. Not sure if that's the greatest plan, but why else would they do it?!

 

[Angliru]

1. It's true they don't have to go all-out in the first mountain stage.

2. Both of them saying they won't could be the biggest indicator that they will. If Contador feels good on Tourmalet he'll attack so if you see his team at the front on the last kilometers of Tourmalet or at the start of Luz Ardiden, fireworks are coming.

Andy prefers to ride behind Contador because of the gap Contador quickly makes when he attacks. If he is in front of Contador he can be caught by surprise and unable to get on his wheel without blowing up. I anticipate Contador attacking when Leopard is riding tempo on the front. Saxo Bank has no reason to be riding tempo when there are stronger teams that can do it for them, especially at this early point in the Tour.

 

[b.broadhurst]

Fugslang and Monfort will set the pace all the way up the Tourmalet.

Which is dangerous because if Hernandez/Navarro and Szmyd don't have to work then they will ride so hard at the start of the Luz.

 

[nesocip]

I think Leopard gave away their tactics when Voeckler attacked (well, sort of!) in yellow the other day. They chased down him and Martin, which to me says they plan to gun it tomorrow and take yellow. Not sure if that's the greatest plan, but why else would they do it?!

Why wouldnt they? If anyone has a team to control the race its Leopard. I actually think Contador will be getting better as we get to the 3rd week, so if the horseface bros want to try puttin more time into him its now or never.

Since Samu is sadly too far back for podium (in my opinion) i hope Ivan can do something to surprise, although i expect him also to save it for the last week.

2 scenarios

A: Moncoutie solo from a breakaway

B: group of 5-6 GC guys (Andy, Frank, Contador, Basso, Samu and 1 dark horse) to get into last km together, and Samu to take it over Frank with small gaps to 5th or 6th place.

 

[DenisMenchov]

Fugslang and Monfort will set the pace all the way up the Tourmalet.

Which is dangerous because if Hernandez/Navarro and Szmyd don't have to work then they will ride so hard at the start of the Luz.

I can t see them making Luz Ardiden if Tourmalet is ridden hard.

 

[b.broadhurst]

Everybody is writing off Gesink too early just because of his back, but he said he felt good after Stage 9.

Dark horse tomorrow is going to be Velits, slightly nervous about how much work he did today to pull back the breakaway.

 

[b.broadhurst]

I can t see them making Luz Ardiden if Tourmalet is ridden hard.

One of them has to make Luz, otherwise Contador is seriously exposed, but i'm thinking Chris Anker is very important tomorrow as he doesn't have Giro in his legs.

Leopard won't ride Tourmalet too hard.

 

[VeloCity]

So who's in yellow after tomorrow?

I'm going to go with Evans - I think he's stronger than people are giving him credit for.

 

[b.broadhurst]

So who's in yellow after tomorrow?

I'm going to go with Evans - I think he's stronger than people are giving him credit for.

Frank Schleck

 

[Scirea]

i'm not saying he's going to podium but do teop ten, he doesn';t need to be one of the best climbers to do that

No way he makes the top10. He can't climg good enough and he can't TT good enough. Not a winning combination.

 

[b.broadhurst]

He will be lucky to make top 20/25

 

[b.broadhurst]

No way he makes the top10. He can't climg good enough and he can't TT good enough. Not a winning combination.

He will be lucky to make top 20/25

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

No way he makes the top10. He can't climg good enough and he can't TT good enough. Not a winning combination.

look at how strong he rode in trentino and dauphinee. he is a good climber and has already been 13th in the tour before in a same situation

 

[El Pistolero]

Dirk de Mol said that if Contador has good legs tomorrow that he'll attack for sure.

 

[b.broadhurst]

look at how strong he rode in trentino and dauphinee. he is a good climber and has already been 13th in the tour before in a same situation

These are week long stage races, ALOT different to a 3 week tour!! He will finish outside the top 20 for sure.

 

[Scirea]

look at how strong he rode in trentino and dauphinee. he is a good climber and has already been 13th in the tour before in a same situation

Trentino and Dauphiné are not 3 week TDFs as previously mentioned by a lotof guys. I would be a nice chunk of money that he will blow up on at least one of the 4 mountain stages and will be well behind the best climbers on the others. Plus he will get beat in the ITT obviously.

 

[Scirea]

Dirk de Mol said that if Contador has good legs tomorrow that he'll attack for sure.

I think we all knew that already but thanks Dirk.

 

[b.broadhurst]

look at how strong he rode in trentino and dauphinee. he is a good climber and has already been 13th in the tour before in a same situation

Actually he will be lucky to make the Top 30 this year.

 

[dgodave]

look at how strong he rode in trentino and dauphinee. he is a good climber and has already been 13th in the tour before in a same situation

(Sorry.... what rider are you guys talking about?)
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