2011 Tour de France, Stage 12: Cugnaux - Luz-Ardiden, 209 km

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Apr 16, 2009
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b.broadhurst said:
If Contador drops time tomorrow is his Tour over?
Depends. Drops time to whom? If to the Schlecks my opinion is yes.

If he drops time to other GC contenders is just a sign that he is hurt or that he never fully recovered from the Giro. In that case he would not have too much time to recover because the third week is around the corner and all the critical stages are close together.

That is just my opinion.
 
Mar 20, 2009
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b.broadhurst said:
One of them has to make Luz, otherwise Contador is seriously exposed, but i'm thinking Chris Anker is very important tomorrow as he doesn't have Giro in his legs.

Leopard won't ride Tourmalet too hard.
did i see that blue jersey over there in front just 3 km from the top of the Tourmalet? who is that ? Tiralongo? yes it does look like him.. No wonder AC is saving his team for the alps.. He has tiralongo waiting for him at Luz Ardidens.. it'a worth another stage win such a devotion , don't you all think so?
 
Mar 13, 2009
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b.broadhurst said:
If Contador drops time tomorrow is his Tour over?

It depends on how much time. Couple of seconds doesn't really matter. Anything over 30 seconds is a huge worry.
 
Mar 13, 2009
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manafana said:
danielson 110 on betfair as big stage i think he could cause a big suprise.

Agreed. Not gonna win the stage though but he can finish in the top10 of GC guys.
 
Jul 26, 2009
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El Pistolero said:
If Schleck drops Contador tomorrow I can call him a little girl.

The reverse would be a dream come true but it is just fantasy from everything we've seen in the last 11 days.

*If* he is in the tdf next year I can wait until then.
 
Apr 16, 2009
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Stage 12 Odds:

Just how do we compare with these bets? I can see different results to the ones in this forum. Some not all.

4 Alberto Contador (SBS)
5.5 Andy Schleck (LEO)
13 Samuel Sanchez (EUS)
15 Frank Schleck (LEO)
17 Cadel Evans (BMC)
21 David Moncoutie (COF)
31 Ivan Basso (LIQ)
41 Damiano Cunego (LAM)
41 John Gadret (ALM)
41 Robert Gesink (RAB)
51 Rigoberto Uran (SKY)
67 Jakob Fuglsang (LEO)
67 Paolo Tiralongo (AST)
67 Peter Velits (THR)
67 Sylvain Chavanel (QST)
81 Christophe Riblon (ALM)
81 Cyril Gautier (EUC)
81 Remy Di Gregorio(AST)
81 Roman Kreuziger (AST)
81 Simon Gerrans (SKY)
81 Tejay Van Garderen (THR)
101 Andreas Kloden (RSH)
101 Anthony Charteau (EUC)
101 Bauke Mollema (RAB)
101 David Arroyo (MOV)
101 Hubert Dupont (ALM)
101 Jerome Coppel
101 Remi Pauriol
101 Tom Danielson
101 Vladimir Gusev
 
Apr 14, 2009
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I hate to keep banging on about Moncoutie too much, but I note there has been a decent move for him in betting markets. If he is going to fulfil his goal of a stage win and KOTM then today and Stage 14 are the best options.

As much as I'd like to see the tempo high so a GC guy wins it, that doesn't happen as often as most people think. I don't remember many people expecting the break to stay away on the 2009 stage to Mont Ventoux, for example.

I'm all over Moncoutie at $21 for the stage and $13 for KOTM.

If it's a GC guy then I'd fancy Sammy Sanchez. His form looks very sound.
 
Mar 13, 2009
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Pantani_lives said:
How can Moncoutié be sixth??

You have to understand how bookmakers work. Everybody and their dogs know that he is specialized in breakaway in terrain like this so they can't put out too big odds on him because people would jump on that. On the other hand, nobody will jump on Kloden, Roche etc. winning the stage.
 
Aug 4, 2010
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Not sure if its revelent or not but its a real shame that a lot of good riders won't get to race starting tomorrow. Andy's been quiet so far, Evans is racing like he wants to win. Just not sure if he can go the whole tour without having a bad day. Alberto seems to be calm, and that makes me nervous. He's either real good and waiting, or he has a bad knee, or is bluffing that his knee is bad. Andy 1st, Alberto 2nd Frank S 3rd Evans 4th.
 
Mar 15, 2011
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I cannot watch this stage live, or with a reliable replay (no tv...). Most stages on the weekdays I've caught up with on youtube, but not before being spoiled by the winner in the video's title :mad:.

I don't believe one bit that Contador will lose a lot of time. I really just can't imagine him being put into extreme difficulty by someone else. Even despite Contador's ailments, this is what he does, and he does it damn well. The knee, fatigue, and whatever else just mean he won't go all Mt. Etna on the likes of Schleck. I don't think I'm being naive, but how can anyone so easily discount the worlds best without any proof on his stage?
 
Apr 18, 2010
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Frihed89 said:
Doesn't the guy who wins this stage often have a team with the strongest legs?

having the team with the strongest mountain legs is certainly an advantage. in the final mountaintop finish kilometers, the strongest legged team has done its work. the team's gc rider is left to slug it out with his rivals. though strong legs are necessary for the win, the strongest legs don't always win.


physically cracking is one thing: legs gone, shoulders rocking, pedaling squares, labored breathing - time to sing "goodnight irene" and limit time loss.


it is a beautifully sad thing to see a rider - sometimes the stronger rider - psychologically broken by his rival. strong legs, smooth pedaling, measured breathing can collapse in a second if the psyche is broken: one moment the body is saying "yes, yes, yes!" next moment, the broken psyche has ruined it all. physically, nothing has changed. but ahhhhhhhhhh, the mind can be an incomprehensibly powerful thing.

it is one of the most appealing elements of the sport to me. the strong psyche that keeps one riding through pain, through exhaustion, though legs positively burning with third degree lactic acid pain is the same mind that can turn moments of doubt into crushing defeat.


in my *opinion*, contador is leagues above his gc competition in the psychological warfare department. in my *opinion*, contador cannot be psycholgically broken - a huge advantage over andy, frank, and cadel. i do NOT mean this in any sort of disparaging way - it is just how i see it.

question: how many meters can contador surge ahead of andy in the time it takes andy to turn around looking for frank? :rolleyes:


so: along with the first of the high mountains, i say "let the *serious* psychological gc race begin!"


note to hitch: as challenging as it may be to top your epically spectacular (**##!** canceled) crostis stage thread in this years giro....ya' think it's time to get crackin' on stage 19? :D

note to self: whoah! two posts in one evening...quite the chatty cathy i am tonight!
 
Aug 5, 2010
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etymology said:
having the team with the strongest mountain legs is certainly an advantage. in the final mountaintop finish kilometers, the strongest legged team has done its work. the team's gc rider is left to slug it out with his rivals. though strong legs are necessary for the win, the strongest legs don't always win.


physically cracking is one thing: legs gone, shoulders rocking, pedaling squares, labored breathing - time to sing "goodnight irene" and limit time loss.


it is a beautifully sad thing to see a rider - sometimes the stronger rider - psychologically broken by his rival. strong legs, smooth pedaling, measured breathing can collapse in a second if the psyche is broken: one moment the body is saying "yes, yes, yes!" next moment, the broken psyche has ruined it all. physically, nothing has changed. but ahhhhhhhhhh, the mind can be an incomprehensibly powerful thing.

it is one of the most appealing elements of the sport to me. the strong psyche that keeps one riding through pain, through exhaustion, though legs positively burning with third degree lactic acid pain is the same mind that can turn moments of doubt into crushing defeat.


in my *opinion*, contador is leagues above his gc competition in the psychological warfare department. in my *opinion*, contador cannot be psycholgically broken - a huge advantage over andy, frank, and cadel. i do NOT mean this in any sort of disparaging way - it is just how i see it.

question: how many meters can contador surge ahead of andy in the time it takes andy to turn around looking for frank? :rolleyes:


so: along with the first of the high mountains, i say "let the *serious* psychological gc race begin!"


note to hitch: as challenging as it may be to top your epically spectacular (**##!** canceled) crostis stage thread in this years giro....ya' think it's time to get crackin' on stage 19? :D

note to self: whoah! two posts in one evening...quite the chatty cathy i am tonight!

you lurkers are a weird species :p

+1 your post tho :)