2011 Tour de France, Stage 12: Cugnaux - Luz-Ardiden, 209 km

[sultanofhyd]

What are the odds of TJVG going in the break for the KOM and help Martin and Velits later?

 

[auscyclefan94]

What are the odds of TJVG going in the break for the KOM and help Martin and Velits later?

I like Velits for a top 10 overall so TJVG could help him but I doubt Martin will be still with the leaders on the Tourmalet.

 

[Frihed89]

4 summit finishes!!

12, 14, 18, 19. Humm. Well, you always substract 1 for 1 degree of freedom, right?

Thanks.

 

[Ferminal]

Eh, already more popular than Stage 11 thread. ASO have their "EPIC hype" they want by not having a decisive stage for two weeks. I must say it's been torturous since Monday, but we are finally here.

Not so much the anticipation of something great, because I think it will be a relatively dull affair, more so given the incidents in the first half of the race. But the anticipation of finally seeing time gaps, and knowing who is the real deal.

Leopard will probably ride a very controlled race, their team is just too strong. I don't expect much from Saxo, nor do they really need it. But if Contador feels good it would be nice to see Navarro go crazy. Ideally a few teams, maybe BMC and Euskaltel, those who may not be much help on Luz, set a pace on Tourmalet to wipe out other teams, put Basso under pressure on the descent.

Realistically I think things will be fairly dull (please prove me wrong!), with a couple of moves here and there but the real gaps coming with ~5km left on Luz. I had picked this out as a very hard 80km of racing, but pessimism has set in since the start of the Tour and my expectations aren't too high.

Predictions:

Basso top3 out of GC guys, and Evans to lose 1'12" to first one.

 

[Frihed89]

you lurkers are a weird species

+1 your post tho

+2. Well put. I really wonder how bad that knee of his is?

 

[auscyclefan94]

Look at that! What a great area to have a bike race on.

 

[hughmoore]

Hitch, we are all waiting for your intro, come on dont let us down.

With regard to tonight, is a high tempo from Basso's team (or others) an advantage to Cuddles or disdvantage.

Arnt Basso and Cuddles similar styles, both Turbo Diesals?

I would have thought with very high tempo, harder for attacks.

I dont think there will be any attacks on tourmelet unless someone of significance cracks as opportunity exists to get back on the descent.



Hugh

 

[hughmoore]

Look at that! What a great area to have a bike race on.

What hill is that?

 

[auscyclefan94]

What hill is that?

Luz Ardiden

 

[Andre.J]

Question that may or maynot be answered

How bad is Contadors knee and condition ?

How is Gesink riding ?

How is Kolden riding ?

Will Evans have a team after the 1st big climb ?

Will Evans ride with leaders or ?

What Condition is Basso in ?

Will Tommy V hang on ?

Is Cunego a GC threat ?

What will Happen to Tony ?

Are Fränk and Andy the ones to beat ?

Will there be Mayhem and Carnage ?

1.not bad at all
2.very badly
3, nobody knows yet
4. who cares, it wont matter
5.Evans will suck wheels and crumble
6.Horrible
7.No
8.No
9.They might be
10. Tony who?
11.not too much

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Look at that! What a great area to have a bike race on.

Can't wait! Wait! Crap... I'll be at work. I guess I'll have to settle for later on Versus with Phil and Paul.

Looks like fun to go down.

I dont think there will be any attacks on tourmelet unless someone of significance cracks as opportunity exists to get back on the descent.

Hugh

I agree. Ullrich is not in this race (memories of 2003).

 

[jobiwan]

I dont think there will be any attacks on tourmelet unless someone of significance cracks as opportunity exists to get back on the descent.

Good thing we have Evans then!

 

[Andre.J]

The fact that VDB, Horner,Wiggins, won't be racing makes this stage almost a bore. It takes away 70% of the excitement.
When I think of what could have been..it makes me sick.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Good thing we have Evans then!

WNW winds for most the day which means a head to cross winds for the final two climbs for most of it.

 

[Publicus]

WNW winds for most the day which means a head to cross winds for the final two climbs for most of it.

There's only one rider I know that likes to attack into headwinds on climbs....

 

[hfer07]

Leopard will probably ride a very controlled race, their team is just too strong.

well-then they must attack to put time gaps on Evans & to test Contador & his "painful knee"-otherwise they're going to fall in the same tramp that Andy got caught up last year: waiting for Contador to do a move when he didn't need to.

I don't expect much from Saxo, nor do they really need it. But if Contador feels good it would be nice to see Navarro go crazy.

He knows he needs to scratch seconds at every opportunity in order to step his way up to the GC-& today is when the challenge begins.

 

[auscyclefan94]

There's only one rider I know that likes to attack into headwinds on climbs....

LOL... the last part hair pins around a bit which is part of the climb that the picture shows so he might try in the latter km's of the climb.

 

[Woody22]

Evans has looked so good to me so far in this tour that I wouldn't be suprised if he dropped Contador and the Schleck brothers on the final climb tonight.
Thoughts???

 

[Woody22]

There's only one rider I know that likes to attack into headwinds on climbs....

I agree. Evans is very strong into the wind.

 

[Publicus]

Evans has looked so good to me so far in this tour that I wouldn't be suprised if he dropped Contador and the Schleck brothers on the final climb tonight.
Thoughts???

The first thought that comes to mind is that you need to stop drinking. Now.

Evans is a lot of things, but he's not an elite climber in the high mountains. He just has to limit his losses (i.e., ride within his limits) and he will be fine. "Know thyself" should be his mantra for the remainder of the Tour.

 

[Woody22]

The first thought that comes to mind is that you need to stop drinking. Now.

Evans is a lot of things, but he's not an elite climber in the high mountains. He just has to limit his losses (i.e., ride within his limits) and he will be fine. "Know thyself" should be his mantra for the remainder of the Tour.

Ok. I've put the bottle down.
But I can still dream can't I?

 

[LukeSchmid]

Evans has looked so good to me so far in this tour that I wouldn't be suprised if he dropped Contador and the Schleck brothers on the final climb tonight.
Thoughts???

If Evans drops Contador and the Schlecks tonight I would be absolutely delightifully shocked. I just do not think he is as good a climber as Contador, the Schlecks, Samu Sanchez and Ivan Basso. However I hope I am surprised and I am wrong. GO CADEL!!!!!!!!!

 

[auscyclefan94]

If Evans drops Contador and the Schlecks tonight I would be absolutely delightifully shocked. I just do not think he is as good a climber as Contador, the Schlecks, Samu Sanchez and Ivan Basso. However I hope I am surprised and I am wrong. GO CADEL!!!!!!!!!

Samu Sanchex and basso? Are you for real?

 

[LukeSchmid]

Ok. I've put the bottle down.
But I can still dream can't I?

Yes you can dream and I will dream but the chances of it being reality are absolutely minisculely tiny.

 

[LukeSchmid]

Samu Sanchex and basso? Are you for real?

Whether you like it or not Basso outclimbed Evans in the Giro last year. If he produces that level I cannot see Evans beating him. Sanchez was the third best climber last year and I think will be this year. He might be given a slight bit of latitude as well seeing he has lost some time.
I know that there have been questions over their form and condition so they maybe below their best. We will see tonight.