2011 Tour de France, Stage 12: Cugnaux - Luz-Ardiden, 209 km

[Galic Ho]

I just hope that someone, anyone attacks before the last 2/3km. Surely one of the GC contenders wants to make a statement? i.e. Conti wants to show who's boss, Schleck I or II wants to follow up the rhetoric, Samu wants to show his form, Basso wants to return to 2005...

The Basso part ain't gonna happen unless you turn back the clock on Clinic related matters. Basso won't drop anyone early. Depending on how fast the pace is before the final climb, he may not have to.

 

[Euskaltel!]

Dream break: EBH, Hoogerland, Taaramäe, Hushovd, Moncoutié, Egoi!

 

[Sophistic]

I pray that SBS and Euskaltel crank out a blistering pace right from the bottom of the first climb.

 

[stetre76]

Dream break: EBH, Hoogerland, Taaramäe, Hushovd, Moncoutié, Egoi!

won't happen - two Cofidis rider, and Taaramäe 18th in GC

breakaway likely, also with Moncoutie and some other French riders - Hoogerland would be great, but I think he still struggles after his crash

 

[Euskaltel!]

I pray that SBS and Euskaltel crank out a blistering pace right from the bottom of the first climb.

Yup! Or at least the whole of the Tourmalet (that's gotta hurt).

 

[sulgpallur]

Omega Pharma-Loto will try to push pace on 1st climb to make cavendish to be outside of the timelimit?

 

[Cimber]

Regarding Rabobank, how does Gesink feel before the mountains? Is his back ok? And you reckon we could see TGBM in an early break?

 

[hughmoore]

I asked this earlier, so bump.

With regard to tonight, is a high tempo from Basso's team (or others) an advantage to Cuddles or disdvantage.

Arnt Basso and Cuddles similar styles, both Turbo Diesals?

I would have thought with very high tempo, harder for attacks.


Hugh

 

[just some guy]

I asked this earlier, so bump.

With regard to tonight, is a high tempo from Basso's team (or others) an advantage to Cuddles or disdvantage.

Arnt Basso and Cuddles similar styles, both Turbo Diesals?

I would have thought with very high tempo, harder for attacks.


Hugh

Depends which Cadel 2007 or 2009 thats why we watch I guess

 

[Lanark]

I asked this earlier, so bump.

With regard to tonight, is a high tempo from Basso's team (or others) an advantage to Cuddles or disdvantage.

Arnt Basso and Cuddles similar styles, both Turbo Diesals?

I would have thought with very high tempo, harder for attacks.


Hugh

I don't think that really suits Cadel. He has the tendency to ride above his level for too long, and blowing up because of that. Basso really needs a steady, high pace.

 

[hoolaparara]

I haven't read all the replies yet but I imagine someone has already put out my opinion of what will happen. Contador is sore and I think he will mostly check the Schleckettes who I think will be keen to get time on Cuddles throughout (since they have some on Contador already). So I see Contador only following in the Pyranees, letting Shleck take the load and then looking to work him over in the Alps.

So tonight is a case of Attack of The Schlecks with Contador content to ride wheels.. Evans losing time significant but not massive and I have no idea how anybody else is going.

 

[klmorgan]

Have had a wonderful time reading everyone's posts (onto the 53rd page).

for what it is worth, my 5 cents worth, I actually don't believe that the GC contenders will come out to play too much. the winner will be a frenchman from the break, and the GC contenders will come together as a group. They'll only work hard if one GC contender is dropped from the group to put time into them.

Most GC contenders will be saving themselves for the 3rd week and the Alps, as they are where the tour will actually be decided, especially with climbing the Galibier twice before Alpe D'Huez

I hate to say it (especially being a big Cuddles fan) that he is likely to be one of the GC condenders dropped, and Frank will end up in Yellow.

 

[jonjungel]

Unless there is a headwind, I can't see why anyone would save themselves. If anyone feels he can go faster in the final, he will. There are four chances for climbers to gain time in this race. They will take them.

"Hey, my competitors are riding away from me. But I will continue riding at 95% of my aerobic capacity because I'm saving myself for the alps."
Sorry, but that doesn't make sense.

 

[EmpressJo]

I hate to say it (especially being a big Cuddles fan) that he is likely to be one of the GC condenders dropped, and Frank will end up in Yellow.

That is like Mark Webber winning from Sebastian Vettel because Red Bull told Vettel to move over (if you follow F1). Frank's there for Baby Schleck. Having said that, he has seemed in better form (Schleck the Elder ahead on the GC), but today will reveal all...

One downside to moving from Australia to Europe - I'm at work when it's on! Pity I don't work over the border where it's a day off...

 

[kjetilraknerud]

I pray for an eventful climb up Luz Ardiden - as I leave work early to hopefully catch the last 90 minutes of the stage.

It might be an overused phrase, but still - nobody is going to win the tour today, but someone will certainly lose it. Hopefully Basso puts Szmyd on the front from the bottom of the last climb - and hopefully he's in top form, then a couple of GC-pretenders will lose 1-2 minutes today.

 

[Tuarts]

Ha! Just got through this thread - 5 new pages overnight!

Let's get ready for the racing!

Can't wait, so many questions will be answered and another zillion or so created.

 

[Lance Armstrong]

Can't wait. Go Velits! Show them all!

 

[Jan the Man]

It might be an overused phrase, but still - nobody is going to win the tour today, but someone will certainly lose it. Hopefully Basso puts Szmyd on the front from the bottom of the last climb - and hopefully he's in top form, then a couple of GC-pretenders will lose 1-2 minutes today.

Seconded.

I think Basso will be the main contender who does try to attack and not hold back. I can see Conti riding conservatively until Luz. Leopard riding a tempo, which is not too ferocious, and the others hanging on for as long as possible.

I will be interested to see how Gesink and Klöden are with respect to their back injuries. I suspect Gesink is further along in the healing process than Klödi is.

I will also be interested to see how good a form Evans really is on. The first week suited him down to the ground but it really is no indication of form in the high mountains.

Sanchez is another who will have to make up some time.

I will be interested to see which of the outsiders such as Taramaae, Velits, Martin, Danielson, Uran, Cunego, Coppel, De Weert will be able to show something and who will hang the longest with the big guns.

 

[theswordsman]

I haven't paged back, but just in case, wanted to remind you that the stage and the coverage start early today and Saturday. Live feeds should be available in an hour and a half (there's one at Fromsport.com already). Saturday live feeds start even half an hour earlier than that. Enjoy!

 

[TeoSheva]

Omega Pharma-Loto will try to push pace on 1st climb to make cavendish to be outside of the timelimit?

I thought it too. It can be, but OPL has only one guy that can set the pace on the mountains: Vanendert.
I think this tactic will work better on Saturday: shorther stage (and so the cut-off is more critical), and more mountains

 

[b.broadhurst]

Stage 12 Odds:

Just how do we compare with these bets? I can see different results to the ones in this forum. Some not all.

Basso and Gesink have to be higher, they will be there or thereabouts today.

 

[sultanofhyd]

Seriously this saving yourself for Alps is bull****, especially for Contador. What if he just follows the Schlecks through the Pyrenees and is unable to drop them on the Alps? Thats his tour over and he didn't even attack in the Pyrenees.

 

[TeoSheva]

has anyone the rules of the cut-off time?

 

[b.broadhurst]

Evans has looked so good to me so far in this tour that I wouldn't be suprised if he dropped Contador and the Schleck brothers on the final climb tonight.
Thoughts???

Not a chance, he has looked good on the 1km uphill finishes like he does always in tours but when it comes to the steep stuff he will get dropped.

 

[Cimber]

Seriously this saving yourself for Alps is bull****, especially for Contador. What if he just follows the Schlecks through the Pyrenees and is unable to drop them on the Alps? Thats his tour over and he didn't even attack in the Pyrenees.

Normally I would agree, and Contador is not a defensive rider (though he did ride quite defensively last year). But it all depends how his knee feels. If it isnt 100% I dont think he will attack. If, however, the knee is ok he surely will try something.