2011 Tour de France, Stage 12: Cugnaux - Luz-Ardiden, 209 km

[b.broadhurst]

Nah I think he and SBS will be very defensively tomorrow cos they will be unsure how his knee reacts in the mountains. But if he feels super and the knee is ok then he might attack within the last 5k on Luz. But I think it will be Leopard we will see leading the pack most of the day (when Europcar are done with)

It is not like Contador to be defensive in the mountains, he said today that he will make a decision on his knee before he gets to Luz so surely this means he has to test is on the Tourmalet which means his team has to ride hard.

 

[b.broadhurst]

or will he explode the final group ?

Szmyd is definitely gonna cause damage tomorrow, he started to ride into form at the end of the Giro. The peloton must be a little worried about the pace he sets.

 

[Anonymous]

Basso will not be drop at all whatever leopard or sbs might do.

 

[musorowegudo]

Thursday is Evans's best chance, I think. (Same with Cunego.) The Contaschelcks will just sit pretty till the Alps: Contador b/c of his knee; Schlecks b/c they're the Schlecks. A guy like Evans or Cunego may be able to sneak away.

Ah, who am I kidding. The group of favorites will be kept together by Contador, who will be constantly tailed by Andy, who will be constantly tailed by everyone else. Anyone who tries to attack against this wall of forced cooperation will just blow themselves up and make an early transition from "GC contender" to "stage hunting."

Let the hunt begin ಠ_ಠ

This is well written, with a lot of humour! I can actually picture the drama unfolding . . . You make this forum a best place to be in July! The other good thing . . you express your views w/o hurting any fan! That's marvellous man!

 

[Cimber]

It is not like Contador to be defensive in the mountains, he said today that he will make a decision on his knee before he gets to Luz so surely this means he has to test is on the Tourmalet which means his team has to ride hard.

Both Riis and Contador said that they would ride defensively and others would have to take the initiativ. I dont think we will see SBS pulling on Tourmalet. Leopard will do that anyways to put the hurt on Evans etc.

I wont rule out that Bertie will attack on Luz Ardiden but it will depend on his knee. But I think it will be Leopard who will do most of the work in front.

 

[The Hitch]

Will you give the whole crying bit a rest it is done and what is done is done.

The point is that the Schlecks and Evans are clearly the favourites for the organisers, the media and seemingly a lot of the crowds.

They get touted as the big favourties while Sanchez and Basso dont even get mentioned as contenders (Richie Porte being touted instead for a top 5) and Contador gets booed.

The events of stage 1 create the idea that ASO is in on it too.

Its Spaniards vs Establishment.

Besides, if you want to give it a rest then thats fine, I dont have to. I still see people complaining about aerodynamics from 1989 and Rasmussen and Lance and injuries, and the Robert Millar Vuelta even gets brought up now and again, so untill I no longer see Samu listed as 2.30 back on his rivals, I claim a right to moan about an incident that took place not 22 years ago but last week.

 

[b.broadhurst]

Moncoutie's stated that he's not going for polka dots. Actually, I'd be very surprised to see anything from Moncoutie this Tour.

Who's been mentioned more, Voeckler or any Cofidis rider? That's the name of the game at the Tour - publicity, especially for French teams. Cofidis hasn't had any. Europcar has had tons. Sure, it's thanks mostly to Voeckler, but that's because he goes on the attack nearly every day. Relatively speaking, Cofidis has been invisible.

We obviously have two very different views, because I will be stunned not to see Moncoutie attack on one of the mountains stages.

Voeckler is obviously going to gain alot of attention as he is the biggest name in French cycling. But to say Cofidis haven't have any publicity is just stupid as they have had somebody in the breakaway everyday. They have also had plenty of exposure for being the team with the most punctures. Haha Exaggerating so much, Voeckler has attacked a couple of days not every day and Cofidis being invisible, you will see Tarramae up there tomorrow giving them plenty of publicity and there will be no Europcar.

 

[The Hitch]

Does the Hitch like to cry? Hahahaha

This surely has to recieve a strike by the new rules that insulting other members recieves a strike.

A pretty dumb move if you ask me because I had nothing against you, but you made your choice

 

[jobiwan]

Both Riis and Contador said that they would ride defensively and others would have to take the initiativ. I dont think we will see SBS pulling on Tourmalet. Leopard will do that anyways to put the hurt on Evans etc.

I wont rule out that Bertie will attack on Luz Ardiden but it will depend on his knee. But I think it will be Leopard who will do most of the work in front.

Seems spot on to me.

I guess I have to give my official pick. Here it goes.

Frank will ride such a hard tempo that only Basso, Alberto, Sammy and Andy can hold on. In the 2nd to last kilometer, Contador will attack to see what he's made of, and only Andy will be able to follow. Frank, Ivan, and Sammy will just ride to limit time.

Andy and Alberto will gain 25 seconds on this little group, then Andy will gap Contador by about 5 seconds in the sprint!!!!!!

Boy, I hope I'm right.

(Although, I could see Andy not challenging Contador for the sprint if it comes to them two, a little thank you for Tourmalet last year. Then Andy could save himself for his Tour-clinching win on Plateau de Beille! )

ANDY FTW!!

 

[b.broadhurst]

Both Riis and Contador said that they would ride defensively and others would have to take the initiativ. I dont think we will see SBS pulling on Tourmalet. Leopard will do that anyways to put the hurt on Evans etc.

I wont rule out that Bertie will attack on Luz Ardiden but it will depend on his knee. But I think it will be Leopard who will do most of the work in front.

They can't allow other teams to take the initiative when they are 2mins down, Contador and his team has to test his knee on the Tourmalet and then decide whether he continues. If he continues then stage win to Contador.

 

[Cimber]

Andy cant sprint. Contador would beat him anytime in a sprint.

Also I dont think they will use Frank to just pull hard. That will be Fuglsang and Monfort. Frank will attack as the first of the two bros though.

 

[b.broadhurst]

This surely has to recieve a strike by the new rules that insulting other members recieves a strike.

A pretty dumb move if you ask me because I had nothing against you, but you made your choice

I just don't understand the inside jokes on all these forums.

I see your a sammy sanchez fan so i like.

 

[inri2000]

This surely has to recieve a strike by the new rules that insulting other members recieves a strike.

A pretty dumb move if you ask me because I had nothing against you, but you made your choice

Come on, let's see that intro, the profile for tomorrow looks epic. I know you don't rate Porte, but I have a feeling he will surprise you.

 

[b.broadhurst]

Andy cant sprint. Contador would beat him anytime in a sprint.

Also I dont think they will use Frank to just pull hard. That will be Fuglsang and Monfort. Frank will attack as the first of the two bros though.

Agreed, definitely not Frank's job to ride on the front, him and andy both going for GC.

 

[just some guy]

The point is that the Schlecks and Evans are clearly the favourites for the organisers, the media and seemingly a lot of the crowds.

They get touted as the big favourties while Sanchez and Basso dont even get mentioned as contenders (Richie Porte being touted instead for a top 5) and Contador gets booed.

The events of stage 1 create the idea that ASO is in on it too.

Its Spaniards vs Establishment.

Besides, if you want to give it a rest then thats fine, I dont have to. I still see people complaining about aerodynamics from 1989 and Rasmussen and Lance and injuries, and the Robert Millar Vuelta even gets brought up now and again, so untill I no longer see Samu listed as 2.30 back on his rivals, I claim a right to moan about an incident that took place not 22 years ago but last week.

As you may But it appears that Sammy is taking in his stride. If my dream comes true he is back in with a shot at the Podium and will have a stage win and probably KOM for at least 1 stage or even take it all the way - which would be a very good tour imo.

 

[VeloCity]

We obviously have two very different views, because I will be stunned not to see Moncoutie attack on one of the mountains stages.

Moncoutie's a second-tier climber, he can't stay with the top guys on the big climbs. His only chance is to win from a breakaway that manages to stay away. If that doesn't happen, not a chance that he hangs with the Contadors and Schlecks et al.

EDIT: let me qualify that by saying, "not a chance that he hangs with the Contadors and Schlecks et al unless the top climbers decide to take it easy"

Voeckler is obviously going to gain alot of attention as he is the biggest name in French cycling. But to say Cofidis haven't have any publicity is just stupid as they have had somebody in the breakaway everyday. They have also had plenty of exposure for being the team with the most punctures. Haha Exaggerating so much, Voeckler has attacked a couple of days not every day and Cofidis being invisible, you will see Tarramae up there tomorrow giving them plenty of publicity and there will be no Europcar.

I'm not sure how this got to be Cofidis focused, as I originally was talking about French teams and French riders as a group, and used both Cofidis and Saur as specific examples. But I still totally disagree - imo Cofidis have been largely invisible.

 

[Cimber]

They can't allow other teams to take the initiative when they are 2mins down, Contador and his team has to test his knee on the Tourmalet and then decide whether he continues. If he continues then stage win to Contador.

they are 1.30 down. And the other day Contador said he wasnt worried about the 1.30 as he would be able to take that on the TT. And its not like they are running out of mountains just yet. But if he feels good and the knee is ok I am sure he will attack. Thats how he rides. But if the knee is a little sore he will hold back I think.

 

[Dedelou]

Evans is gonna blow up I fear... Baby Schleck ftw, Frank in the top 5

and contador doesn't exist in this plan of yours?

 

[b.broadhurst]

Moncoutie's a second-tier climber, he can't stay with the top guys on the big climbs. His only chance is to win from a breakaway that manages to stay away. If that doesn't happen, not a chance that he hangs with the Contadors and Schlecks et al.

EDIT: let me qualify that by saying, "not a chance that he hangs with the Contadors and Schlecks et al unless the top climbers decide to take it easy"

I'm not sure how this got to be Cofidis focused, as I originally was talking about French teams and French riders as a group, and used both Cofidis and Saur as specific examples. But I still totally disagree - imo Cofidis have been largely invisible.

He will be in the breakaway tomorrow. Never said he could hang with the big boys, not a chance!!

You focused on Cofidis earlier saying they were invisible when they clearly haven't been, if anything Europcar have been quieter, Saur, FDJ and Cofidis have had a man in the breakaway on nearly every day.

 

[dgodave]

Q: What is the transition btwn the Tourmalet descent and the Ardiden climb like?
How long?
Flat?
.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

What is ASO?

Andy Schleck Organization

This was never the point that EE would help Contador not Sammy.

The point was Sammy wants to form an alliance with Contador which means EE and SaxoBank work together.

http://www.marca.com/2011/07/13/ciclismo/tour_francia/1310576900.html

More that EE will work for Samu but Samu won't mind Contador benefiting from that - plus also they are the guys that need to win time back so are more likely to have to attack and find themselves together off the front, with no teammates. Euskaltel have no reason to work for Contador just cos Contador is Spanish. There are some rather ambivalent attitudes towards Spain within Euskal Herria.

Samuel is not Vasque if you mean that, he is Asturian, a very Spanish place.

The talk was of the Euskaltel team helping Contador not Samu.

Samu loves Contador so they might work together but I dont see EE drilling it for Contador just because Sanchez is Asturian.

Precisely. Samu is a Spaniard, for sure, but he's come through the ranks with the Fundación Euskadi. He's one of their own as far as they're concerned. Contador hasn't and isn't.

There are feasible reasons why Euskaltel might help Contador - the Giro and Samu needing allies at the mountaintops are both good ones - but the original comment suggesting that they'll help him because they're Spanish and Spanish teams all work together is to be ignorant of a much more complex issue.

 

[b.broadhurst]

they are 1.30 down. And the other day Contador said he wasnt worried about the 1.30 as he would be able to take that on the TT. And its not like they are running out of mountains just yet. But if he feels good and the knee is ok I am sure he will attack. Thats how he rides. But if the knee is a little sore he will hold back I think.

If his knee is sore after the Tourmalet, I can't see him continuing and this is what he implys in his interview after todays stage.

 

[Liquigas]

Go Ivan,Peter and Rein, I believe in you guys.

Tomorrow will only be about following Szmyd, Monfort, Fuglsand and guys like this until the last 2 km. We won't see attacks at all I fear.

 

[The Hitch]

I just don't understand the inside jokes on all these forums.

I see your a sammy sanchez fan so i like.

Fair enough. I like Samu and play the fanboy mode with him at the Tour.

Come on, let's see that intro, the profile for tomorrow looks epic. I know you don't rate Porte, but I have a feeling he will surprise you.

I do rate Porte, just not in GTs. Always said he could be very good in classics, but his best GT performance came from decent not super climbing, and hes tired from the Giro.

As you may But it appears that Sammy is taking in his stride. If my dream comes true he is back in with a shot at the Podium and will have a stage win and probably KOM for at least 1 stage or even take it all the way - which would be a very good tour imo.

He has a shot at the podium but I felt that he is superior enough to Andy Scleck in tts and descending to at least be able to bring it to him. Even if he would lose in the end, show himself as a challenger.

Podium or no podium, Samu is always ignored big time (not even shown on te Contenders gc on some channels) and without the initial disadvantage he would have been right up there with people saying "watch out for this Samu Sanchez guy". Even if he got a podium it would be towards the end, and in the meantime all the "watch out for ..." is going to Tony Martin, Peter Velits etc. A bit of a sad sight to see.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

liquigas and szmyd won't make a tempo until luz ardiden climb. basso isolated on final climb is not something he wants because of the attacks and also the tourmalet downhil