2011 Vuelta a España Stage 17: Faustino V --> Peña Cabarga 211,0 km

[auscyclefan94]

2011 Vuelta a España Stage 11: Faustino V --> Peña Cabarga 211,0 km

The final big showdown to decide the champion of the Vuelta is upon us with many of the gc positions to be finalised. Many riders believe they can improve their gc position and the battles will run deeper than just for the victor of the Vuelta even though that is the main battle.

GC after Stage 15
1 Juan Jose Cobo Acebo (Spa) Geox-TMC 59:57:16
2 Christopher Froome (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:00:20
3 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:00:46
4 Bauke Mollema (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team 0:01:36
5 Maxime Monfort (Bel) Leopard Trek 0:02:37
6 Denis Menchov (Rus) Geox-TMC 0:03:01
7 Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Leopard Trek 0:03:06
8 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale 0:03:27
9 Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:03:58
10 Wout Poels (Ned) Vacansoleil-DCM Pro Cycling Team 0:04:13

The positions which are bolded could all change around. This climb should mould our final gc in Madrid quite significantly.

Last year, the Vuelta used this climb. Here was the result

Purito owned with Nibali 20 seconds adrift. The top 3 are unlikely to feature in the gc battle this year.

Stage 14 Results
1 RODRIGUEZ OLIVER, Joaquin (Katusha) 4h 26' 43"
2 NIBALI, Vincenzo (Liquigas - Doimo) + 20"
3 MOSQUERA MIGUEZ, Ezequiel (Xacobeo - Galicia) + 22"
4 MONCOUTIE, David (Cofidis, le Credit en Ligne) + 33"
5 ROCHE, Nicolas (Ag2r - La Mondiale) + 34"
6 SCHLECK, Fränk (Saxo Bank) + 35"
7 TONDO VOLPINI, Xavier (Cervélo Test Team) + 39"
8 GARCIA DA PENA, David (Xacobeo - Galicia) + 43"
9 VELITS, Peter (HTC - Columbia) + 45"
10 DANIELSON, Tom (Garmin - Transitions) + 1' 29"

The stage is rather undulating before the final climb but it is nothing too difficult as we have the Portillo de Bustos (Cat 3) and the Portillo de Lunada (Cat 2). We have some more descending and then we hit the climb, Peña Cabarga!

Peña Cabarga is only 6.1km but it rises 545m vertically to form an average gradient of 8.9%! NASTY!

Who will win the stage? Who will win la vuelta?

You tell me!

 

[roundabout]

Rodriguez. Duh.

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

I say Poels...

 

[Reverend_T_Preedy]

I say Poels...

I think that too. Or maybe Mollema

Cobo and Froome will ride in together.

Mollema will make up 20 seconds on Wiggins.

Probably completely wrong though!!

 

[Scirea]

I hope Cobo will make a move and gain time on the Sky duo, with that finishing off all this "Sky will attack on the flat" talk.

 

[icefire]

The stage departs from a well known winery in La Rioja. Riders should watch what they get in their bottles before drinking it.

As a side comment, this stage has suffered a significant change after the race presentation in January. The original course went through Portillo de la Sía (cat 2) and Puerto de Alisas (cat 2) which they will do also on stage 18. Appenrently the road was known to be in bad condition, but works to amend it were expected to end in May. However, budget cuts forced the authorities to change work plans.

This was the original profile:

 

[gilbertador]

Nibali for me, the Liquigas quartet have a tiny hill to get over before a long descent and so sagan etc will drive Nibali off the front, hope if hes brave enough to pull out 1 30 ish before pena carbaga he is able to just stay away

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I say Poels...

QFT.

I hope he wins.

I also hope cobo cements his win.

Finally I hope wiggo cracks and mollema takes third

 

[jobiwan]

I'm a little upset that this is the last chance to score big seconds, barring crazy stages in the Basque Country (which of course we all hope to see!)

Still, should be a great stage, a lot up for grabs...

 

[maltiv]

Wow, didn't realize the time gaps were so big last year. 1,5 minutes between the 1st and the 10th is pretty significant, so the GC could still change quite a lot I guess. As for the stage, perhaps Poels will finally win something?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Now Rodriguez is handicapped (and maybe out) and Cobo is probably only concerned with Sky, I see a chance for Poels.

 

[Lexman]

Poel FTW, hoepfully Cobo will not be too hungry...

 

[LaFlorecita]

I would say Purito, but after today I can't see him winning, or contesting. He might even not continue. But he is most welcome to prove me wrong.

 

[Scirea]

I really hope Cobo will put the hammer down once again. He could save himself and his team a lot of trouble/work. If he just puts 10 seconds into Froome plus get some bonus seconds, i think Sky would give up.

 

[Carlo Algatrensig]

Like many others I'm looking at poels to take the win. His ride on the Angliru was great and I think this climb is better for him.

Also I'd like to see Sky try something on this stage. Maybe get Lovkvist and Possoni in the early break and have Wiggins attack on the Lunada to try and put Geox under pressure. In reality though I think they'll leave it to the last climb and probably lose a few more seconds to Cobo on the steep section near the top of Pena Carbaga

 

[Scirea]

Like many others I'm looking at poels to take the win. His ride on the Angliru was great and I think this climb is better for him.

Also I'd like to see Sky try something on this stage. Maybe get Lovkvist and Possoni in the early break and have Wiggins attack on the Lunada to try and put Geox under pressure. In reality though I think they'll leave it to the last climb and probably lose a few more seconds to Cobo on the steep section near the top of Pena Carbaga

The good thing is even if Wiggins will try something like that, Geox won't be the only team chasing. I think Rabobank and Leopard didn't give up on a podium finish just yet.

 

[hatcher]

Froome going for the bonus seconds today is a pretty big indication they will try something tomorrow. Even if it's just make it as high a pace as possible and try to grab the win + the bonus.

 

[Scirea]

Froome going for the bonus seconds today is a pretty big indication they will try something tomorrow. Even if it's just make it as high a pace as possible and try to grab the win + the bonus.

I think it's a pretty good indication that they are desperate. If they'd think they have any chance to succeed tomorrow he wouldn't have wasted any energy for a questionable couple of seconds. (which he didn't even get at the end)

 

[hatcher]

I think it's a pretty good indication that they are desperate. If they'd think they have any chance to succeed tomorrow he wouldn't have wasted any energy for a questionable couple of seconds. (which he didn't even get at the end)

Well I assume they weren't trying to get 3rd place in the sprint today. An extra 6 seconds would have been huge.

Getting 6 (or even 2) seconds in a bonus sprint is far easier than having to get them on a climb. If Froome had those seconds then a win tomorrow would have put him in red. As it is, he'll need to win and get a gap.

It was a no-brainer to go for the seconds.

 

[Anonymous]

As an aside, what would happen if Froome was to get a 20 second bonus and tie Cobo. How is the overall leader decided?

There was no prologue, so that rules that out. Is it done on the TT or the TTT?

 

[Ragerod]

The good thing is even if Wiggins will try something like that, Geox won't be the only team chasing. I think Rabobank and Leopard didn't give up on a podium finish just yet.

The best move for Rabo and Leopard is to let Geox do all the work, which they will do, and save their strength to make a move on the final climb after Sky and Geox have tired each other out.

 

[Scirea]

Well I assume they weren't trying to get 3rd place in the sprint today. An extra 6 seconds would have been huge.

Getting 6 (or even 2) seconds in a bonus sprint is far easier than having to get them on a climb. If Froome had those seconds then a win tomorrow would have put him in red. As it is, he'll need to win and get a gap.

It was a no-brainer to go for the seconds.

All these talk about Sky attacking on the flat is really tiring me out. Pointless talk, waste of time.

How do you rate the chances of Froome getting over 20 seconds in intermediate sprints?

Who do you think have a better chance getting time on the other tomorrow, Froome or Cobo?

I rest my case.

 

[hatcher]

All these talk about Sky attacking on the flat is really tiring me out. Pointless talk, waste of time.

How do you rate the chances of Froome getting over 20 seconds in intermediate sprints?

Who do you think have a better chance getting time on the other tomorrow, Froome or Cobo?

I rest my case.

Uh where did I say anything about attacking on a flat stage, or about gaining 20 seconds in intermediate sprints?

I quite clearly said trying to get Froome the win tomorrow + the bonus seconds would get him the race lead.

As for who is more likely to gain time tomorrow, are you suggesting Froome shouldn't even bother trying? Froome has consistently been among the few very best climbers in the race, yet the idea of him winning a MTF stage is so beyond the realms of possibility that he shouldn't even try?

 

[Scirea]

Uh where did I say anything about attacking on a flat stage, or about gaining 20 seconds in intermediate sprints?

I quite clearly said trying to get Froome the win tomorrow + the bonus seconds would get him the race lead.

As for who is more likely to gain time tomorrow, are you suggesting Froome shouldn't even bother trying? Froome has consistently been among the few very best climbers in the race, yet the idea of him winning a MTF stage is so beyond the realms of possibility that he shouldn't even try?

I never said he shouldn't try. What i'm saying is this: he has very little chance to gain success. Of course he should try.

 

[lancaster]

Anton or Nibali ftw

sky need this not to come down to a sprint from the favorites or they'll lose more bonus secs to JJ Cobo