2011 Vuelta a España Stage 17: Faustino V --> Peña Cabarga 211,0 km

[hrotha]

Menchov and Cobo holding hands.

Sastre is optional.

 

[hfer07]

Anton's last shot for stage win glory...... unless Cobo himself decides to go

 

[Fergoose]

As an aside, what would happen if Froome was to get a 20 second bonus and tie Cobo. How is the overall leader decided?

There was no prologue, so that rules that out. Is it done on the TT or the TTT?

Curious about the answer myself. But hypothetical after the commissaires decided Froome was pipped at the intermediate sprint, making him 22 seconds down on the lead.

Stagewin
I think Cobo will be fairly anonymous tomorrow and ride well within himself, simply marking the Sky pair safely home. I don't think Geox would let Menchov go out on an attack either incase his services are required. Poels has finished second twice now and is due a win, but I think an improving Anton will take this.

Prediction Score: 2 of 16

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

There is no way in hell Anton or Nibali will win unless they are in the early break.

 

[jsem94]

Menchov to take this one.

 

[Scirea]

Anton or Nibali ftw

sky need this not to come down to a sprint from the favorites or they'll lose more bonus secs to JJ Cobo

I think you see their problem.

 

[Lupetto]

There is no way in hell Anton or Nibali will win unless they are in the early break.

And Sky will work to bring the break down. They can't let the bonus seconds slip away.

 

[Scirea]

"Tomorrow there will be the uphill arrival in Peña Cabarga. Cobo and GEOX-TMC will be riding on the home roads of Cantabria, the region where “the Bison from la Pesa” hails from, and which also on of the team’s partners. Just one more reason to continue to shine in this dream of a Vuelta."

Seems like the right time to put down the hammer and finish off this Vuelta.

 

[WorldsGreatest]

if froome rides in wiggins wheel and then attacks with 1km to go he looks like he has the legs to win the stage imo.

 

[darkglam]

If tomorrow rains in Cantabria then downhilll of Portillo de Lunada can be the perfect place for Nibali and Sagan suicidal attack.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fv49uUSdfC8&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-VcUWu9u8E&feature=related

One of the most beautiful roads of Spain for cycling.

 

[Swede1]

Sky wont take any time back on Cobo. Once they hit the bottom of the climb, ddlf and duarte will drill it for the beginning and then Menchov will hit the front with Cobo on his wheel and they will ride away from the others together for an awesome 1 2 victory!

 

[The Hitch]

Maybe Sky can take time into Bilbao. Make a deal with Liqui to do a dual team downhill, then 2 team ttt to finish. Liqui get better chance of staying away for stage win, which is given to them. Sky get seconds on gc.

Just brain storming, i know its highly unlikely.

 

[daveinzambia]

Uh where did I say anything about attacking on a flat stage, or about gaining 20 seconds in intermediate sprints?

I quite clearly said trying to get Froome the win tomorrow + the bonus seconds would get him the race lead.

As for who is more likely to gain time tomorrow, are you suggesting Froome shouldn't even bother trying? Froome has consistently been among the few very best climbers in the race, yet the idea of him winning a MTF stage is so beyond the realms of possibility that he shouldn't even try?

To be fair, Sky did not chase down the break, but it was caught just before the sprint point why would you not try for it. Would have been dumb not to give it a go. not like he was risking much.

 

[Climbing]

I see a long descent before the last climb, and Nibali is out of contention for the first spots and want to leave a mark.
You, guys, do the math...
Shark attack!
If it sticks... or Cobo getting away again and close the thing.

 

[ansimi]

This stage has a lot of potential There are so many strong riders who should be motivated to try something.

As an aside, what would happen if Froome was to get a 20 second bonus and tie Cobo. How is the overall leader decided?

There was no prologue, so that rules that out. Is it done on the TT or the TTT?

I think being Cobo being Spanish would matter more than TT, TTT, or countbacks and it will be impossible for a foreigner to beat him by 1 second or less.

 

[gregrowlerson]

I don't have the courage to say that Froome WILL win the Vuelta, but I think he has a better chance the general consensus on here. It's only 20 seconds and there are time bonuses. Froome has been one of the best handful of climbers in the race, and much of that time has been spent thinking about working for Wiggins. Should be a highly interesting stage 17.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Menchov and Cobo holding hands.

Sastre is optional.

At one point I had nearly written off Denis, but he seems to be getting better. So, yeah, I could see that. And maybe Froome because I think he should now have the green light to ride for himself if he's got good legs.

As much as I like Carlos, not ftw here.

 

[seaby71]

Cobos lead is actually 22 seconds now.
Froome did not end up getting third in the sprint yesterday.
That extra 2 seconds could mean alot.
However cobo has proven to be the strongest and smartest.
I think Poels will win today, he is far enough down the gc they would not react.

 

[Tuarts]

Time gaps on a sprint stage? Well there's a first for everything I guess.

 

[auscyclefan94]

As an aside, what would happen if Froome was to get a 20 second bonus and tie Cobo. How is the overall leader decided?

There was no prologue, so that rules that out. Is it done on the TT or the TTT?

without time bonuses, froome would be in red. Time bonuses should never be used in GT's. It should be based on real time.

Anton or Nibali ftw

sky need this not to come down to a sprint from the favorites or they'll lose more bonus secs to JJ Cobo

If anything they need the time bonuses. The won't win by simply trying to get a gap on Cobo. They'll need to put in an attack, get the win and ensure Cobo doesn't place. It doesn't necessarily have to go exactly like that but they'll need froome to place and beat Cobo to have any chance.

 

[Sasquatch]

Daniel Martin takes the stage.

Him or Purito. Purito may have crashed yesterday but he crashed in another sprint stage and went onto win the next day.

 

[Tank Engine]

I was previously thinking of going for Poels today as this seems not to be so much of a JRod finish as the two in the first week, but after JRod's crash I would definitelty pick Poels ftw. It will be interesting to see Froome unleashed, but can't really see him gaining time on Cobo. I think Sky have to try and keep the bonuses in play. If Cobo outsprints Froome, then Froome still comes 2nd in GC (unless something crazy happens). It's not those that are in 1st place that have to take risks at this point.

 

[Frosty]

Important one for the points jersey today. With the stages that follow Sagan looks favourite to win it but if there a lot of big breaks then he may not get as many points as you might think (obviously he might try to get in them).

Anyway, if J-rod is to set Sagan a big target then he needs to get full points today. If he doesnt then Mollema is lurking 5 points back. If Cobo or Poels win the stage then they could take the jersey although they are 18 and 19 points behind respectively and the winner will only get 25 points so they would need J-rod to finish well down and Mollema to finish outside the top 5.

The break could make it to the finish but someone will fancy the stage win and also want to keep the bonus seconds in play. Vacansoleil gave it a good crack on the stage to Angliru and will do the same again here - looking down the overall, Poels is 15 seconds behind VDB and 29 behind Nibali - i think they'll fancy his chances of getting that time back today. 55 seconds to Fuglsang/Menchov looks tough to make up although not impossible, especially to Fuglsang.

 

[WWCCScorer]

From the rule book re: ties

In the case of a tie between two or more riders, the
hundredths of a second in the individual time trial stages
shall be applied, with the winner being the rider with
the lowest total hundredths of a second. If the result is
still tied or if there are no individual time trial stages
the placing obtained in each stage shall be added and,
as a last resort, the place obtained in the last stage
ridden shall be taken into consideration.

And...

In the event of a tie in the Overall Points Standing, the following criteria
shall be applied in order until the riders are separated:
• Number of stage wins.
• Number of wins in intermediate sprints counting for
the Overall Points Standing.
• Overall Standing on Time.

And...

In the event
of a tie, the winner shall be the rider with the first place
in the Cima Alberto Fernandez. If there is still a draw,
the number of first places in the high-climb finished will
be applied, and, if necessary, the number of first places
on climbs in the next inferior category and so on.
If the tie still persists, the Overall Standing on Time will
apply.

 

[manafana]

Its stage 17, the smell of madrids streets are starting to get up the nostrils. The riders leg's stiffer than a Viagra induced hard on. Wiggins had it in his grasp but a bad day at office meant Cobo took the red jersey, he wasnt the first and wont be the last spaniard to mug a brit in spain. But that day was real test of the vuelta and wiggins failed cobo achieved, froome, wiggins right hand mand left his side pushed on to now take the leaders role and attempt to still give sky a chance. Last years winner has been found to be undercooked, his main rival last year before his crash Anton was more than undercooked he was rare, the fact he finished alongside wiggins after suffering trying match cobo in a break shows what he could have done had he been medium rare in week 1.
Scarponi couldnt stand the test of another grand tour, mollema may just be feeling the the two grand tours in a row, his legs giving way, but the voice of Jens Voigt rings out in their head. Rodriquez had not even a time trial to blame this year, he could climb a vertical wall on his bike, but make it a few miles long and his legs dont seem to want come to the party.
Onto todays stage cobo will want be near front, whether they ride to keep control or limit any breaks, or whether sky ride or not to reel in a break, im sure someone will be settin an honest tempo so on climb the time gaps will arise.

Todays stage bet:
Poels to win stage 17 @10/1 skybet or william hill

Poels has been good on these shorter climbs and even the longer ones, vacansoeil need a stage win and hes the man to provide hes been 2nd twice, and with J rod likely be hurting this is his chance.