2011 Vuelta a Espana Stage 10: Salamanca ITT, 47km (28/9)

[Tuarts]

I think now, that anyone from 1-7th will win the Vuelta and those 8th to 13th have a remote chance. Anyone after Menchov is over 3 minutes down and you can't fathom them getting remotely close.

Nibali still must be the favourite, he has a lot more pedigree than anyone else there atm, next is Wiggins. Its great though, to have a lot of these unknowns up there: we don't know how well Fuglsang, Mollema, Froome, Kessiakoff will go over 3 weeks and they're certainly not your traditional GC contenders.

The next stage will be a tough climb too, so how each recovers after the rest day will have as much an outcome as anything

 

[Cobblestoned]

Froome finally doing a BIG thing. Congrats.
Very close to the Panzerwagen and even riding for GC....even leading GC now.

Was waiting for around 2 years, since he was announces as a next big thing.
Lets see how he does in the real mountainstages.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

what happened?

mechanical.


I think both can still top 10. We will see.

 

[roundabout]

1:23.

I think there should be 2 time trials next year.

 

[dlwssonic]

mechanical.


I think both can still top 10. We will see.

argh, how unlucky. Menchov could have done pretty well.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I think J-Rod is out of it, there is only one short sharp climb where he can blow the rest away. I think he will continue to fade at the end of the 10km+ slopes.

Then again, he was 3rd on Anglirú in 2008, and nobody who climbs as well as Contador is here; the only other person who beat him was Valverde, who he was riding for. I think J-Rod has every chance of gaining time back on Anglirú.

The big problem for J-Rod is that now he's some 3'23" back, he can't choose when to go - he has to go straight away, which means he could well fade. But the long steep stuff is almost as much his playground as the short steep stuff (remember him being 3rd in the Pampeago stage and the Gavia-Mortirolo stage in '08, both won by Sella).

J-Rod is still in this. Only just, and could easily fall by the wayside if he loses even a handful more seconds on La Manzaneda. But 3'23" can definitely be got back on Anglirú and Peña Cabarga, with time bonuses.

 

[theyoungest]

Just realised if Kruijswijk and Menchov didn't lose 1:42 in the beginning due to bad luck they'd be well in the top 10

They lost 1.23. And Kruijswijk wouldn't be in the top-10.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Main contenders (in my opinion, sorry Froome, Fuglsang, Kessiakoff, etcetera)

Wiggins
Nibali +11
Mollema +47
Cobo +1'27
Jvdb +2'01
Menchov +2'15
Rodriguez +3'03
Martin +4'38

Although maybe I should take at least Kessiakoff and Froome seriously. I fully expect Fuglsang/Monfort to drop in the mountains and have no serious shot anyway.

 

[dlwssonic]

TGBM>Loveboat

TGBM has a chance to be a big contender for GCs in the future.
The dutch mafia hyping was pretty good.

 

[boomcie]

Another word on Froome...

He really impressed me yesterday, because the wind in those last k's was ferocious according to some riders.
Him pulling back Nibali and friends, then pacing Wiggins for a while ánd still holding on was a really strong performance. Today he TT'd quite a bit faster than Wiggins (23"), ending 2nd behind King Martin. Those are some pretty impressive credentials.

This guy seems to be going places and yes I'm a little confused by his performance. Sorry guys.

 

[hrotha]

Actually it's even Wiggins best long TT result in a GT so far. Just looking at the placings of course.

Yes, but it's all relative. He faded towards the end, he lost to his teammate Froome, and he failed to put the kind of time he needed on his rivals. Now he'd practically have to be the best climber for the remaining of the race to win.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

what happened?

Material problems on one of the first stages when there was a climb in the finale.

 

[Tuarts]

You consider Martin a main contender but not Fuglsang, Kessiakoff, Monfort etc?

 

[roundabout]

Then again, he was 3rd on Anglirú in 2008, and nobody who climbs as well as Contador is here; the only other person who beat him was Valverde, who he was riding for. I think J-Rod has every chance of gaining time back on Anglirú.

The big problem for J-Rod is that now he's some 3'23" back, he can't choose when to go - he has to go straight away, which means he could well fade. But the long steep stuff is almost as much his playground as the short steep stuff (remember him being 3rd in the Pampeago stage and the Gavia-Mortirolo stage in '08, both won by Sella).

J-Rod is still in this. Only just, and could easily fall by the wayside if he loses even a handful more seconds on La Manzaneda. But 3'23" can definitely be got back on Anglirú and Peña Cabarga, with time bonuses.

So you are now listing breakway stages. *sigh*

And the Mortirolo stage was the worst Mortirolo stage ever.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

not like he has been taking time on mountains anyway.

No? Hmm, well, considering he's still recovering, he would have been in front of Rodriguez if it weren't for time bonusses, he took time on Scarponi, and without the downhill upset by Liquigas, he would have been in front of Nibali as well. So all in all, i don't agree. The "real" mountains still have to come, so i was more speaking in general to be honest.

He was supposed to have trained on his TT, and improved?

Supposed to, yeah. That's what he said last year after the tour, that he would focus more on TT for this year. Except he said in an interview before the Dauphiné, he had hardly touched his TT bike.

So, how is your take on Mollema and JvdB now this vuelta, changed your mind yet

What are you refering to good man? The fact that i said Mollema won't win the Dauphiné? He still won't, and that has little to do with JVDB. As for my prediction for JVDB this Vuelta, i believe you can find a quote of mine in the infamous Gesink - VDB topic, that i expected him in the top 10, all else would need to be seen. I still wouldn't count him out just yet though.

 

[luckyboy]

Main contenders (in my opinion, sorry Froome, Fuglsang, Kessiakoff, etcetera)

Wiggins
Nibali +11
Mollema +47
Cobo +1'27
Jvdb +2'01
Menchov +2'15
Rodriguez +3'03
Martin +4'38

Although maybe I should take at least Kessiakoff and Froome seriously. I fully expect Fuglsang/Monfort to drop in the mountains and have no serious shot anyway.

Not sure about including Martin in that. He can get top 10, but he isn't really a contender.

 

[Anonymous]

I'm gonna make a wild call. Kessiakoff will win this.

Birdsong will podium.

 

[theyoungest]

You consider Martin a main contender but not Fuglsang, Kessiakoff, Monfort etc?

On Angliru those guys (except for Kessiakoff maybe) will get slaughtered by Martin. He won't win the race, but could still make the top-5.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Main contenders (in my opinion, sorry Froome, Fuglsang, Kessiakoff, etcetera)

Wiggins
Nibali +11
Mollema +47
Cobo +1'27
Jvdb +2'01
Menchov +2'15
Rodriguez +3'03
Martin +4'38

Although maybe I should take at least Kessiakoff and Froome seriously. I fully expect Fuglsang/Monfort to drop in the mountains and have no serious shot anyway.

I don't see that Martin is a contender. If he just had those gaps on one or two of the riders above him, sure, they could crack terribly on in the mountains. But they are hardly all going to crack.

 

[Escarabajo]

Nibali is the best positioned to win this Vuelta again.

The rebirth of Cobo in this Vuelta. Such an inconsistent rider.

 

[hatcher]

Another word on Froome...

He really impressed me yesterday, because the wind in those last k's was ferocious according to some riders.
Him pulling back Nibali and friends, then pacing Wiggins for a while ánd still holding on was a really strong performance. Today he TT'd quite a bit faster than Wiggins (23"), ending 2nd behind King Martin. Those are some pretty impressive credentials.

This guy seems to be going places and yes I'm a little confused by his performance. Sorry guys.

And he's just about the nicest guy you could ever meet.

If you spoke to the British Cycling guys (among others) 3 or so years ago they would have told you Froome was destined to be a grand tour GC rider. He's had a run of injuries, and it hasn't happened for him, but he's still only 26.

 

[Lexman]

Overall:
1 183 FROOME, Christopher SKY 38h 09' 13''
2 103 FUGLSANG, Jakob LEO + 12''
3 188 WIGGINS, Bradley SKY + 20''
4 1 NIBALI, Vincenzo LIQ + 31''
5 131 KESSIAKOFF, Fredrik AST + 34''
6 104 MONFORT, Maxime LEO + 59''
7 157 MOLLEMA, Bauke RAB + 1' 07''
8 61 COBO, Juan José GEO + 1' 47''
9 201 BRAJKOVIC, Janez RSH + 2' 04''
10 209 ZUBELDIA, Haimar RSH + 2' 13''
11 118 BRUSEGHIN, Marzio MOV + 2' 15''
12 127 VAN DEN BROECK, Jurgen OLO + 2' 21''
13 65 MENCHOV, Denis GEO + 2' 35''
14 81 RODRIGUEZ, Joaquin KAT + 3' 23''
15 117 PARDILLA, Sergio MOV + 3' 23''
16 206 MACHADO, Tiago RSH + 3' 28''
17 11 ROCHE, Nicolas ALM + 3' 47''
18 155 KRUIJSWIJK, Steven RAB + 3' 52''
19 85 MORENO, Daniel KAT + 3' 59''
20 161 SÖRENSEN, Chris SBS + 4' 07''
21 148 SEELDRAYERS, Kevin QST + 4' 18''
22 91 SCARPONI, Michele LAM + 4' 22''
23 217 POELS, Wouter VCD + 4' 41''
24 196 MARTIN, Daniel GRM + 4' 58''
25 54 NIEVE, Mikel EUS + 5' 06''

Thanks for the heads up, given all mountain stages to come nothing is done...

 

[Libertine Seguros]

So you are now listing breakway stages. *sigh*

And the Mortirolo stage was the worst Mortirolo stage ever.

It was the worst Mortirolo stage ever but that's not J-Rod's fault. The guy can do a good long climb on steep stuff. He's not a grinder. He put time into everybody except Contador and the guy he was domestiquing for on Anglirú last time around. He still has a chance.

I just don't think he's going to be able to take it.

 

[sam7155]

Were there no time bonuses today?

 

[cineteq]

Main contenders (in my opinion, sorry Froome, Fuglsang, Kessiakoff, etcetera)

Wiggins
Nibali +11
Mollema +47
Cobo +1'27
Jvdb +2'01
Menchov +2'15
Rodriguez +3'03
Martin +4'38

Although maybe I should take at least Kessiakoff and Froome seriously. I fully expect Fuglsang/Monfort to drop in the mountains and have no serious shot anyway.

Kessiakoff has been really solid. I think you should include Froome and Brajkovic. Martin should be out. Mollema should have an asterisk though.

FROOME, Christopher SKY
WIGGINS, Bradley SKY + 20''
NIBALI, Vincenzo LIQ + 31''
KESSIAKOFF, Fredrik AST + 34''
MOLLEMA, Bauke RAB + 1' 07'' * (fanboy favorite)
COBO, Juan José GEO + 1' 47''
BRAJKOVIC, Janez RSH + 2' 04''
VAN DEN BROECK, Jurgen OLO + 2' 21''
MENCHOV, Denis GEO + 2' 35''
RODRIGUEZ, Joaquin KAT + 3' 23''