2011 Vuelta a Espana Stage 14:Astorga → La Farrapona. Lagos de Somiedo, 173km

[Descender]

Why is everyone talking about the final climb and the final kms and how it is not hard enough? Have we forgotten there is ANOTHER climb right before that one and that is actually IS allowed to attack before the final climb?

This is the first time in the history of the Vuelta in Spain where the second-to-last climb is harder than the last one. San Lorenzo east is a legit HC, it's last 5kms at 11% average are very hard. I hope and expect some riders have a go at it before the last kms.

Oh and again, climbybike is not a reliable source of profiles. The green ones that were posted earlier are much more accurate, as is the page cyclingcols.com. These are their profiles for tomorrow's last two climbs:

 

[Greenflame]

Looks like an exciting stage. I really hope Nibali and perhaps Mollema or even Cobo will try to break Team Sky on San Lorenzo. A Liquigas-Rabobank alliance would be perfect here: place one or two guys in the break, destroy the peloton on San Lorenzo (for which Liquigas clearly needs Rabo), set Mollema on Nibali's wheel for the descend and start the final climb with a minute headstart on Wiggins.

Perhaps not realistic, probably a better chance for something like this on stage 15, but I would absolutely love them for trying. Only problem is making sure Froome is completely broken on San Lorenzo and won't be able to pace Wiggins.

Ah well, one can dream.

 

[icefire]

Nibali will keep sneaking seconds in the intermediate sprints and he won't need to attack in the mountains

 

[Scirea]

Look out for Cobo these next two days, he is going to win the Vuelta.

 

[stetre76]

my bet for the next two days is on Kessiakoff - not for the win, but he will be close to the front.

with Cobo I am not sure, would be nice if could get past Monfort in the GC (how does he normally do on the steep climbs???)

 

[Scirea]

my bet for the next two days is on Kessiakoff - not for the win, but he will be close to the front.

with Cobo I am not sure, would be nice if could get past Monfort in the GC (how does he normally do on the steep climbs???)

Cobo would get past Monfort in the high mountains even if he had to ride my grandma's bike.

 

[Fergoose]

I think Wiggins has to forget about everyone else and just stick to Nibali. If someone else breaks, leave it to Liquigas to close it down (assuming they are all together at the foot of the last climb, which is not certain). I think Wiggins will keep ahead of Nibali overall here (and therefore probably keep red), although Froome didn’t look so good today.

As today showed, if anyone up to Rodriguez attacks then the big guns will respond. I can’t see them all calling a truce. Mollema/Rabobank are just too aggressive and both Rodriguez & Van den Broeck must be approaching last chance saloon and have to try to attack here. I can’t see them making up 2 and 3 minutes respectively over the entire field on just one climb. Plus todays stage was aggressive despite offering less opportunity to gain time than tomorrows stage.

Stagewin
I’ve pinned my hopes on Van den Broeck for the overall and he is still making positive noises, even after the time trial, but my confidence is wavering that he’ll achieve better than top 5 overall. He’s yet to launch a full bloodied attack though. Rabobank are looking the pick of the leader’s teams at the moment and seem able to help Mollema respond to any attack. So I pick him.

Prediction Score: 1 out of 13

 

[Libertine Seguros]

ACF - remember that Bola del Mundo only averages just over 6% - as long as the ramps are long enough to allow attacks to stick rather than be inevitably wound back within a few seconds, it's enough for a good race to develop.

Now, would we consider this or Anglirú to be the queen stage? There's no obvious massive multi-climb stage this year - but Nieve is obviously going to win one of them, so whichever one he wins will probably be the queen stage since that's all he ever wins.

 

[Dutchsmurf]

According to the Sporza guys the last climb isn't that difficult at all. Judging from the profile it indeed isn't. Just like always in the Vuelta I don't expect big gaps here. Sunday will be the key stage, this is just the setup. Another person will loose the chance to win the Vuelta today, but it won't be won here.

 

[LaFleur]

David Moncoutie will ride the stage in the Estonian Champion's shorts .
Taaramäe said that, so apparently he will borrow them from him or something

 

[Swede1]

If Menchov rides away from everyone I'm buying beer for everyone

Hey didnt Cobo say yesterday that Menchov was still the team leader and could do something still in the Vuelta? Hopefully he will at least try an attack, like he did in the Giro.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

As today showed, if anyone up to Rodriguez attacks then the big guns will respond. I can’t see them all calling a truce.

I agree with the people saying that there's a real chance of serious attacks on the penultimate climb. The top 15 are with 2 mins 30 and outside of the top 15 you also have JRod, Menchov, Nieve and Martin as riders who nobody will be happy about letting disappear off into the sunset. That's a hell of a lot of dangerous guys and it only takes one of them to roll the dice.

Dan Martin is one of the best climbers in the race on current form, he's below JRod on GC, and he's attacked in earnest on both of the previous mountain top finishes, so it's probably a safe bet that he will attack again if he has the legs. He might, just about be far enough behind on GC not to trigger an immediate attempt by the main favourites to shut down the attack. On the other hand, both times he went so far, someone higher up on GC tried to take advantage (Nibali, Mollema). So even if he doesn't trigger an immediate effort to bring him back, he would likely trigger an opportunistic attack by someone else looking to work with him and that in turn would start the mayhem. Martin also has been known to attack on earlier climbs, as in Poland recently.

I'd really like to see a group with people like Nieve, Martin or Poels getting away on the second last ascent.

 

[Swede1]

Everyone is going to think it is the 2008 Tour when Cobo rides away with Menchov on his wheel. It will be sooooo epic!

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Hey didnt Cobo say yesterday that Menchov was still the team leader and could do something still in the Vuelta? Hopefully he will at least try an attack, like he did in the Giro.

yet wednesday Menchov again lost 30 secnds on a simple mountain where all the favorites finished together

sorry, but it aint gonna happen

 

[Tank Engine]

According to the Sporza guys the last climb isn't that difficult at all. Judging from the profile it indeed isn't. Just like always in the Vuelta I don't expect big gaps here. Sunday will be the key stage, this is just the setup. Another person will loose the chance to win the Vuelta today, but it won't be won here.

Looking at the profile of San Lorenzo, the last 5k are very nasty. I'm pretty sure that the fireworks will start here. Maybe not the Shark and Wiggins, but the climbers who are a few minutes down. Guys like Danny Boy, Snow and Poels in around 20th position, but only 4 minutes down will not really have anything to lose by attacking here and possibly a lot to gain. The leaders cannot afford to let them get much time, so I reckon that it will be pretty much all out starting about 5k from the top of the penultimate climb. I don't think the Vuelta will be won here, but there will be more than one person losing it.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

David Moncoutie will ride the stage in the Estonian Champion's shorts .
Taaramäe said that, so apparently he will borrow them from him or something

Taaramäe's either joking as Moncoutié's probably getting some blue shorts to go with the polka dots as the red clash was too much, and they look like his old national champions' ones, or he is literally borrowing Taaramäe's old shorts for the same reason.

 

[Von Mises]

or he is literally borrowing Taaramäe's old shorts for the same reason.

Exactly He wrote that Moncoutie borrows his shorts because these will suit with KOM shirt.

 

[Tuarts]

Puritio or Brown to win the next 2 stages, they look itching to do it and I think Purito is far enough down in GC that providing he tries his winning move close to the finish he should win it and get some time back.

Very interesting to see just who is the strongest climber these next two days!

 

[maxmartin]

totally agree. this is a smart strategy, sky have to come up with sort of way to make nibali do some work

PS huge nibali fan here

I think Wiggins has to forget about everyone else and just stick to Nibali. If someone else breaks, leave it to Liquigas to close it down (assuming they are all together at the foot of the last climb, which is not certain). I think Wiggins will keep ahead of Nibali overall here (and therefore probably keep red), although Froome didn’t look so good today.

As today showed, if anyone up to Rodriguez attacks then the big guns will respond. I can’t see them all calling a truce. Mollema/Rabobank are just too aggressive and both Rodriguez & Van den Broeck must be approaching last chance saloon and have to try to attack here. I can’t see them making up 2 and 3 minutes respectively over the entire field on just one climb. Plus todays stage was aggressive despite offering less opportunity to gain time than tomorrows stage.

Stagewin
I’ve pinned my hopes on Van den Broeck for the overall and he is still making positive noises, even after the time trial, but my confidence is wavering that he’ll achieve better than top 5 overall. He’s yet to launch a full bloodied attack though. Rabobank are looking the pick of the leader’s teams at the moment and seem able to help Mollema respond to any attack. So I pick him.

Prediction Score: 1 out of 13

 

[The Hitch]

ACF - remember that Bola del Mundo only averages just over 6% - as long as the ramps are long enough to allow attacks to stick rather than be inevitably wound back within a few seconds, it's enough for a good race to develop.

But Bola has a final 3 km all over 11% and on rough surfaces, which is where the action took place last year.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

But Bola has a final 3 km all over 11% and on rough surfaces, which is where the action took place last year.

Very true - but similarly the average gradient is deflated by earlier flattish periods. Same with Farrapona and Anglirú, which feature final stretches far harder than their comfortable early gradients. The last 6km of Farrapona are easily enough to open up gaps with attacks, especially with San Lorenzo in the legs. But the relatively benign early stages mean we may have to wait a while for the fireworks.

 

[icefire]

After what we saw today attacks tomorrow are most likely to come from the brown bears living in the area than the GC riders. It's all set for Sunday and for the bonus seconds in the intermediate sprints.

 

[Winterfold]

totally agree. this is a smart strategy, sky have to come up with sort of way to make nibali do some work

PS huge nibali fan here

Yep he is picking Sky off second by second with minimal risks ie not attacking on 20%+ gradients like you would think you should race if you just read the threads on here

Bummer as a Brit that he will beat Wiggo without making a real big attack and while letting Wiggo/Sky do lots of work but thats what relative fails in TTT and ITT do to the chances of climbing rouleurs

 

[sel1700]

What about a wiggins counter attack?He could surprise me again!

 

[Angliru]

Nibali will keep sneaking seconds in the intermediate sprints and he won't need to attack in the mountains

I haven't watched the last stage yet but I've read the report. Did Wiggins of any of Sky put up any type of resistance to deter Nibali from taking the bonus seconds? I'll find out tonight when I watch the stage but there was nothing in the report mentioning the Wiggins/Sky reaction.

Like you said Nibali has been slowly nipping away at Wiggins' narrow lead. Maybe Wiggins/Sky is smug in his/their belief that he will be the stronger rider come this weekend's climbs. The time margins from 1-10 are closer than any grand tour at this point that I can remember. Unfortunately for me my 2 hopefuls at the beginning of the Vuelta aren't among that 10.