2012 Giro d'Italia, May 9th, stage 4: Verona → Verona, 33.2 Kms TTT

[Martina]

BMC, for the bravery if Phinney will grit his teeth and let the pink dress make it's wonders as allowed boost

 

[patterson_hood]

One question Sky have is whether they will be hampered by their 2 colombian climbers Henao and Uran, who struggle in longer TT, will they wait for them or go for getting Cav in the Maglia Rosa.

Surely you mean Thomas?

 

[PedalCastro]

Garmin nailed on for this.

Liquigas, Sky and GE top 5.

Usual teams to struggle

 

[dlwssonic]

I hope phinney can recover well, so he can help his team do a good TTT performance for pinotti GC chances.
their TTT performance will all depend on how he is feeling, but he said he is feeling ok.

 

[dlwssonic]

I think BMC will win. I am surprised people have not picked them a bit more.

Phinney has said he is OK and the rest day has come at the right time for him to recover. Pinotti will do well and Hushovd and Ballan should contribute to a very good performance as well.

nooo BMC won't....
Its garmin, BMC might top 5, with a slightly injured phinney.

 

[will10]

dlwssonic in "BMC won't win" shocker!

 

[Caruut]

Great post on the TTT over on the stage 3 thread;

(posting this before stage 3 which likely bore me)

(warning - technical analysis)

The prologue gives us a good proxy on which to base TTT results for stage four. Taking the total time for the top 6 finishers from each team from the prologue, we can judge the relative (excluding team dynamics) strength of each Giro team in time trials. Using the % difference from the top team, and a 52 km / hour proxy for the top team in the 33.2 km TTT we can then guess the times for each team in the TTT. From this, we can then guess the relative time of each GC contender after the TTT. It will, of course, be wrong, however if betting were allowed where I am, I'd wager a few dollars.

There could be some big time gaps and some contenders quite far back after only four stages. This might lead to some good mountain fireworks as people try to isolate riders and put in some fireworks.

Prologue Place.Team:Time: % behind top: TTT time: TTT Behind: GC Behind (GC Name)

1. GRM: 3912s: 1.000%: 38:18: 0s: +0s (Hesjedal)
2. RNT: 3974s: 1.016%: 38: 55: +36: +66s (Schleck)
3. OGE: 3983s: 1.018%: 39:00: +42s
4. SKY: 3984s: 1.018%: 39:01: +42: +59s (Uran) + 76s (Henao)
5. BMC: 3991s: 1.020%: 39:05: +46s: +41s (Pinotti)
6. OPQ: 3998s: 1.022%: 39:09: +51s
7. LIQ: 4002s: 1.023%: 39:11: +53s: +92s (Basso) + 112 (Szmyd)
8. VCD: 4022s: 1.028%: 39:23: +65s +68s (De Gendt)
9. MOV: 4031s: 1.030%: 39:28: +70s
10. SAX: 4033s: 1.031%: 39:30: +71s
11. RAB: 4036s: 1.032%: 39:31: +73s
12. APP: 4043s: 1.033%: 39:35: +77s
13. AST: 4044s: 1.034%: 39:36: +78s: +85s (Kreuziger)
14. KAT: 4062s: 1.038% 39:47: +88s: +102s (Rodriguez)
15. LTB: 4065s: 1.039%: 39:48: +90s
16. COG: 4082s: 1.043%: 39:58: +102s
17. FDJ: 4090s: 1.046%: 40:03: +107s
18. FAR: 4106s: 1.050%: 40:12: +114s
19. LAM: 4116s: 1.052%: 40:18: +120s: +154s (Cunego) +156s (Scarponi)
20. AND: 4125s: 1.054%: 40:24: +125s: +159s (Serpa) +163s (Rujano)
21. ALM: 4184s: 1.070%: 40:58: +160s: +183s (Gadret)
22. EUS: 4199s: 1.073s%: 41:07: +169s: +195s (Nieve)

(projection will change if riders crash and withdraw - Kristoff and Serpa haven't been removed from calculations yet)

 

[dlwssonic]

dlwssonic in "BMC won't win" shocker!

Im being realistic. I only say a BMC rider can win when I actually think so like in the giro prologue.

 

[Ruudz0r]

Great post on the TTT over on the stage 3 thread;

Post needs Pozzovivo!

 

[Bavarianrider]

Great post on the TTT over on the stage 3 thread;

I doubt gaps will be that big. Although i would like it of course.
If this was 10km longer this would be intersesting, but 32km is still really short for a TTT.

 

[Pippo_San]

That all depends on what you consider a BIG gap. The Scarponi and Cunego duo will have for sure a quite big gap on other overall contenders (e.g. Basso & Kreuziger)...

Voted Greenedge. They look rock solid to me. On the contrary I have the feeling this will be a "annus horribilis" for Garmin...

 

[theyoungest]

Great post on the TTT over on the stage 3 thread;

It's not as simple as that, just take Liquigas as an example. No great time trialists individually, but always good in the TTT.

 

[More Strides than Rides]

I think BMC will win. I am surprised people have not picked them a bit more.

Phinney has said he is OK and the rest day has come at the right time for him to recover. Pinotti will do well and Hushovd and Ballan should contribute to a very good performance as well.

I think its between BMC and Garmin for the win. Other teams will be status quo in the first tier: sky, Liquigas, RNT, whatever.

BMC have a notable 4: TTT is Husovd's game, and he's going well enough against real sprinters, at least to indicate more form than a month ago. Ballan looked up to par, and, well, Pinotti is Pinotti and Phinney will hopefully be all of Phinney by tomorrow. Physically, Garmin has the advantage

The intangibles are going to be the Pink Jersey jet fuel vs the assumed Garmin drilling and focus on the TTT, minus the pressure of being the favorite.

I'm going to say Garmin actually now that I've thought out loud

 

[djconnel]

Hopefully Garmin.

Garmin and BMC tied for team classification on stage 1. BMC loses some fraction of Phinney's contribution, and Garmin's results were deeper, so Garmin gets the edge with this simple analysis.

 

[djconnel]

Great post on the TTT over on the stage 3 thread;

Very nice! However, the 5th or 6th ranked rider in a team in the prologue might not be riding it 100%, especially on a technical prologue like we had where risk aversion may be a substantial element. Still, Garmin comes out looking very good here.

 

[FujiAnton]

That technical analysis was very good if the TTT was each one by himself, but in TTT one of the most important part is the tactical part, time of the turns for each rider, order of the riders, what riders would push hard as they can and then drop, which are the five/six rides who will arrive, all this things are out of predictions, and it's why there are many "suprises" in this type of effort.

For me BMC has the best 5 combination, and Garmin has the most homogeneous squad. It will be between these two teams i presume.

 

[karlboss]

Voted Greenedge, I think the morale from stage 3 will wake bobridge up who'll drag the team through and make up for his prologue.

 

[Sophistic]

Garmin is gonna rip this, hardcore, like p flick b

 

[WKA311]

Yeah Garmin will smoke this one with Greenedge, BMC and Sky fighting for second.

Looking forward to see what NetApp can do after their surprisingly good Settimana TTT.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Lol Garmin wins the poll by a landslide.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Great post on the TTT over on the stage 3 thread;

Yes somehow I like this technical analysis. But history has shown that this kind of conclusion is worthless, not only because it depends on form for each rider the given day (2 ITTs on following days will have dissimilar results), but especially because a factor of 9 riders to work together as one - the worktogetherness-factor.

As I see the route, it has a passage for about 12k between the split times, which is quite technical. My prediction is that you could see quite different standings comparing 1st and 2nd split time.

Besides from good TT-athletes, it all comes down to team cooperation. The question is: Which team has the best preparation for this event?

I really love this disciplin.

So working from home office tomorrow

 

[sucotash]

Yeah Garmin will smoke this one with Greenedge, BMC and Sky fighting for second.

Looking forward to see what NetApp can do after their surprisingly good Settimana TTT.

You can not compare Settimana TTT to Giro. The competition here is three classes higher. In Trentino( better teams and lineups than in Coppi and Bartali) Netapp was average. Judging by that I think they will be below average tomorrow.

I know that Liquigas was training the TTT in Verona before the Giro, Szmyd had it on his blog... any news on other teams ??

Also about Liquigas it is worth mentioning that in Trentino they started without their best TT guy - Bodnar. Liquigas should be good tomorrow, but I doubt that they will compete for the win. Even though Basso should gain some time on some other GC contenders.

 

[WKA311]

You can not compare Settimana TTT to Giro. The competition here is three classes higher. In Trentino( better teams and lineups than in Coppi and Bartali) Netapp was average. Judging by that I think they will be below average tomorrow.

wasn't comparing it, just saying that they surprised me there and that they can actually do stronger than many except
I'm realistic and know that they have no chance of a top 10 or maybe even 15.

 

[dlwssonic]

Frank schleck will gain quite a lot of time on his another contenders, hope he can reach some good form nearing the important mountain stages.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Frank schleck will gain quite a lot of time on his another contenders, hope he can reach some good form nearing the important mountain stages.

whatever you expect usually the opposite happens so i expect frank schleck to lose time and even more in the mountains