2012 Road World Championships, Mens Road Race Maastricht - Valkenburg 267 km 23/09/12

[Ryo Hazuki]

No, second AGR. He finished almost 7 minutes back on his first try.

my bad. I didn't know

 

[Old School]

Sagan in pre-Tour form got beaten by Gasparotto.

And dropped quite horribly on the Oude Kwaremont when Pippo attacked. Sadly he can't be here, but he would definitely have been a favorite alongside Ballan.

Not even if he hitches a ride on the Spanish Armada that may be chasing down an attack? I agree, all things have to fall perfectly for him to win, he's outnumbered and probably really tired.

 

[El Pistolero]

Not even if he hitches a ride on the Spanish Armada that may be chasing down an attack? I agree, all things have to fall perfectly for him to win, he's outnumbered and probably really tired.

Of course he can win, but unbeatable?

 

[The Hitch]

mmm hutchinson says that whoever wins probably is not going to post the fastest timechecks at first and will excell on the 2nd half.

Didnt the norwegian who won juniors win like that?

 

[Falken]

I like what I'm hearing from Bettini. From article on the front page:

“No, you won’t see the team playing catenaccio – we’re not interested in shutting down the race like in the past. We have to break the race open,” Bettini told Gazzetta dello Sport. “We don’t have a Gilbert or a Valverde, the kind of athlete who you can bring to the foot of the Cauberg and give him the responsibility of getting a result with reasonable certainty that he will deliver.”

/.../

“If you wait, you risk having regrets,” he said. “It’s better to be at the front instead of following. The team is young but it knows how to race. I’ll tell everyone: ‘Have a go.’”

Vincenzo Nibali’s strong showing on the Cauberg in Sunday’s team time trial offered some timely encouragement to the Italian squad. Bettini had seemed unconvinced by the Sicilian’s potential to lead the team in Valkenburg earlier in the season, but Nibali’s consistency in the classics impressed the national coach.

“He’s not just a rider for the grand tours anymore, he showed that at Milan-San Remo and Liège-Bastogne-Liège, where he took risks to try and win,” Bettini said. “The harder the race is, the better it is for him.

“These Worlds could be really very open. I really believe in the team I’ve put together. There’s nothing to lose and nothing to fear.”

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/gallery-italian-worlds-team-trains-in-valkenburg

Winning? Probably not, but I expect Nibali to be up there. He seems to be in great shape.

 

[the asian]

I like what I'm hearing from Bettini. From article on the front page:



http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/gallery-italian-worlds-team-trains-in-valkenburg

Winning? Probably not, but I expect Nibali to be up there. He seems to be in great shape.

Definitely. He'll attack to force a selection and try to drop the fast finishers.
He has done so consistently in the past few classics and the 2010 WC.

He won't win the race though.

 

[Merckx]

I wouldn't put it past Gerrans to hitch a ride on some late attack and cruise in for the "dubya" (similarly to Milan-San Remo). His form seems to be good following the Canadian races.

 

[rainman]

Spain to work together strongly in wake of Victor Cabedo tragedy.
Contador to rediscover form and pull out victory.
Gilbert, Sagan to podium.
A great attacking race in prospect.

 

[diorgen]

I wouldn't put it past Gerrans to hitch a ride on some late attack and cruise in for the "dubya" (similarly to Milan-San Remo). His form seems to be good following the Canadian races.

Good shout, I am thinking the same

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Good shout, I am thinking the same

I think Gerrans is being really underrated by many. He's shown several times that he's got a nose for being in the right break at the right time, he can handle the distance and he's likely the fastest of Valverde, Gilbert and him.

 

[jrolaf]

It looks like we're in for a brilliant race on sunday, where only the strongest will survive.

The Italians have got to make this a selective race, and Bettini has admitted this. Spain requires some of the same tactic, although they have Freire up their sleeve. This is a "medium" parcourse, not easy, but not the toughest in history. You need to force a selection on a course like this. We saw what happened in the Olympics, although that was an easier course, I think that race may be an inspiration to those who wants to make it as tough as possible.

So who will survive this onslaught of speed and lactate?

Gilbert - likely, he's been looking good since the Olympics

Sagan - doubtful, seems like he's lost some form, but if he makes the
selection he'll be lethal.

Valverde/Contador/Purito - all contenders if the race is hard enough, but Spain often mess up their tactics - and how hard was the Vuelta? I know that the world champion "always" rides the vuelta, but there's a difference between taking part and going for the GC...

Freire - Chances are we won't see him at all - until the last lap....

Boonen - Has the advantage of Gilbert. Boonen just needs to follow the competitors - but how is his sprint compared to Sagan/Freire?

Nibali - Has the legs to stay with the best, but can he break away from the likes of Phil on the Cauberg?

Boasson: Good form - but rarely lasts for 260kms, Nordhaug could well be the man for Norway in the finish...

Gerrans: He's a sly one, but if the pace is blistering from the start I think he will suffer - uncertain of his form.

Kolobnev/Breschel/Evans - Cannot be ruled out, copes with the distance better than most...

So who'll win it?

It's really "wide" open, and a difficult bet. Best value for money is probably Boonen and Freire at 22/1 and Kolobnev at 66/1, if you fancy a big payout go for Oliver Zaugg at 500/1 - he is an autumn rider, which he showed at Lombardia last year - he also had a good showing at the olympics until Spartacus crashed out (He's sorely missed)

Well I'm off to Valkenburg...so long suckers

 

[tomorrow]

well, sagan's form is definately mystery. However, he's been surviving the parkours in Canada really well. Certainly, it was not form from TdF, however it was still quite good. His results in Canada has mainly been affected by the fact, that nobody wanted to work on catching the escapes in final km when sagan was there. It's obvious why's that. In Quebec, Sagan went to make the gap himself and nearly made it. In Montreal, liquigas made good tactics and nearly got the win with Moser. Sagan just wasn't motivated for sprint for the fourth place. So his form might not be that bad as it looks from the result list of these two races.
Also, it is not that true that sagan will be alone in WC race. There are 6 Slovak riders, 3 of whom will not probably finish, however they will certainly help in the first half, which will rest Velits brothers to the finish. They will be there for Sagan till the start of the last Cauberg ascent. This could be more than enough for Sagan. In addition, provided that Peter Velits has good day(he has some now and then, although it's not very often), liquigass tactisc from Montreal could be option For him and Sagan.

We'll see on Sunday, I can't wait to see the race.

 

[Pippo_San]

Definitely. He'll attack to force a selection and try to drop the fast finishers.
He has done so consistently in the past few classics and the 2010 WC.

He won't win the race though.

His best chance was called Ballan, unfortunately he couldn't call him.
His only other chance is Moser for a podium spot, or pray that Gatto survives the Cauberg.
I just can't see Nibali getting to the finish line alone.

 

[kanari]

The favourites the way I see it:

***** Gilbert
**** Gerrans, Valverde
*** Sagan, Rodriguez, Boonen
** Nibali, Freire, Terpstra, Kolobnev
* Voeckler, Degenkolb, Uran, Breschel, Costa

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I think we're in for a real treat.

The parcours are great, very balanced. We could both see tough sprinters like Freire, Boonen and Sagan win, or we could see break away/solo riders like Nibali, Kolobnev or Voeckler win, or we could see puncheurs like Gilbert, Rodriguez or Valverde win which leaves it a very open race. As it should be.

I think the route - and the fact that the favorites are fast men like Gilbert, Valverde and Sagan - will invite some very aggressive riding from various different sides: Nibali, Voeckler, Nordhaug, Rui Costa, Kolobnev and the Colombians - not to mention the numerous opportunistic riders who will fancy their chances.

I think it will be a very aggressive, fast and hard race.

 

[the asian]

His best chance was called Ballan, unfortunately he couldn't call him.
His only other chance is Moser for a podium spot, or pray that Gatto survives the Cauberg.
I just can't see Nibali getting to the finish line alone.

Pozzato and Gaspa would also have had good chances but the Italians have an honorable stance that is praiseworthy and therefore excluded three potential winners.

Don't think Gatto can survive the Cauberg, and IMO Nibali has a better chance of winning if the race was harder rather than Gatto's if it wasn't too selective,
so it will be in Italy's interest to make the race harder.

Agree with you on Moser, he does have a outside shot at a podium.

 

[the asian]

I think we're in for a real treat.

The parcours are great, very balanced. We could both see tough sprinters like Freire, Boonen and Sagan win, or we could see break away/solo riders like Nibali, Kolobnev or Voeckler win, or we could see puncheurs like Gilbert, Rodriguez or Valverde win which leaves it a very open race. As it should be.

I think the route - and the fact that the favorites are fast men like Gilbert, Valverde and Sagan - will invite some very aggressive riding from various different sides: Nibali, Voeckler, Nordhaug, Rui Costa, Kolobnev and the Colombians - not to mention the numerous opportunistic riders who will fancy their chances.

I think it will be a very aggressive, fast and hard race.

Agree, It's interesting that we have so many potential winners and so many scenarios.

Also agree with you that It will be a hard race.
No race radios as well, isn't it?

 

[Falken]

The favourites the way I see it:

***** Gilbert
**** Gerrans, Valverde
*** Sagan, Rodriguez, Boonen
** Nibali, Freire, Terpstra, Kolobnev
* Voeckler, Degenkolb, Uran, Breschel, Costa

Not even one * love for any of Contador, EBH, Nordhaug, Moser and GVA? Bit harsh.

 

[Falken]

Agree, It's interesting that we have so many potential winners and so many scenarios.

Also agree with you that It will be a hard race.
No race radios as well, isn't it?

Nice to see that the first 100k before the circuit is not pancake flat but a bit hilly with several 4-5% climbs. And almost 270k. It sure will be a hard day.

 

[maltiv]

Not even one * love for any of Contador, EBH, Nordhaug, Moser and GVA? Bit harsh.

To include Breschel, who has showed nothing at all lately, and none of the in-form guys above is a bit weird indeed.

EBH is probably in his best shape ever. I've never seen him so confident about his own chances and his own form. The only problem is the distance...Since he has never gotten a good result in a 260 km race I certainly wouldn't put my money on him.

He also tends to get stomach issues when he rides for the Norwegian team, which might be due to the chef. Hopefully Sky has provided him with their chef instead. They have at least lent Norway a Sky bus...who knows, perhaps they'll lend us a couple of domestiques as well

 

[kanari]

Not even one * love for any of Contador, EBH, Nordhaug, Moser and GVA? Bit harsh.

Contador will be probably be a helper and the ITT showed that he isn’t in his best form.

EBH never lasts 250+ km. Will probably abandon with stomach problems at some point. Hope I am wrong, but I doubt it very much.

Nordhaug could deserve a star but I just can’t see him winning this, especially because I don’t see EBH up there in the end and that excludes a Montreal type scenario.

Moser is just too young and unexperienced IMO. Will probably make an impression but is not going to win. No worries though he’ll get a couple of rainbow jerseys throughout his career.

GVA won’t have a leadership role with Gilbert and Boonen there. I can’t really see a scenario where he wins.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

To include Breschel, who has showed nothing at all lately, and none of the in-form guys above is a bit weird indeed.

EBH is probably in his best shape ever. I've never seen him so confident about his own chances and his own form. The only problem is the distance...Since he has never gotten a good result in a 260 km race I certainly wouldn't put my money on him.

He also tends to get stomach issues when he rides for the Norwegian team, which might be due to the chef. Hopefully Sky has provided him with their chef instead. They have at least lent Norway a Sky bus...who knows, perhaps they'll lend us a couple of domestiques as well

Well he had stomach problems in Québec as well. Perhaps Skys chef isn't much better

 

[maltiv]

Well he had stomach problems in Québec as well. Perhaps Skys chef isn't much better

True, but that could've been due to the plane food. At least he tends to have that problem a lot more often with the national team than with Sky.

 

[kanari]

Not even one * love for any of Contador, EBH, Nordhaug, Moser and GVA? Bit harsh.

To include Breschel, who has showed nothing at all lately, and none of the in-form guys above is a bit weird indeed.

Breschel is a bit of a WCRR specialist and the parcours this year should suit him pretty well. If he comes to the finish with a very reduced bunch he can have the speed to win. At least if there’s no Sagan or Degenkolb.

 

[theyoungest]

To include Breschel, who has showed nothing at all lately, and none of the in-form guys above is a bit weird indeed.

EBH is probably in his best shape ever. I've never seen him so confident about his own chances and his own form. The only problem is the distance...Since he has never gotten a good result in a 260 km race I certainly wouldn't put my money on him.

He also tends to get stomach issues when he rides for the Norwegian team, which might be due to the chef. Hopefully Sky has provided him with their chef instead. They have at least lent Norway a Sky bus...who knows, perhaps they'll lend us a couple of domestiques as well

Breschel is a Worlds specialist. EBH is a specialist in a lot of things, but 260+ k races isn't one of them.