2012 Road World Championships, Mens Road Race Maastricht - Valkenburg 267 km 23/09/12

[Falken]

I say a much as a 50% chance of a smaller group, 3 or 4, will emerge. It comes down to the the most effective team on the 10 circuits and a team without an effective power/sprinter will not want to drag them to the line or even the base of the last time up the Cauberg. This course does not favour a Boonen. I say ten times up it will be very selective and not to Tom's liking.

Not a perfect course for Boonen, but not a bad one either. Climbs aren't superhard and pretty short. We know that the lenght isn't a problem for Boonen. Btw, Boonen himself seems quiet confident that he can be handle the course.

After seeing the U23 race today I have changed my mind a bit. Before I was less sure that riders like Boonen, Sagan, Freire, EBH and Degenkolb would be there in the end, now I'm more positive that this could be the case. I also have a harder time seeing riders like Purito, Contador, Voeckler, Nibali, Nordhaug winning on this course.

 

[DominicDecoco]

Womens race gave hope that the action might start with 3-4 laps to go.

 

[auscyclefan94]

After looking at the race route, I think Gerrans' chance of victory has increased. Cauberg will be too hard for Friere but the overall route is perfect for Gerrans.

 

[Panda Claws]

After looking at the race route, I think Gerrans' chance of victory has increased. Cauberg will be too hard for Friere but the overall route is perfect for Gerrans.

****in Gerrans can't win again

 

[Miburo]

After looking at the race route, I think Gerrans' chance of victory has increased. Cauberg will be too hard for Friere but the overall route is perfect for Gerrans.

There's only 1 canc so he won't win.

 

[DominicDecoco]

Everytime I mention Matti before a race as a favorite or outsider he ends up doing f*** all.

This time I won't menti....

Damn it!

 

[theyoungest]

Everytime I mention Matti before a race as a favorite or outsider he ends up doing f*** all.

This time I won't menti....

Damn it!

In the Worlds he often turns up (one of the few races in the year where he does so)

Vosje's win must have given Gilbert some hope.

 

[Andy99]

****in Gerrans can't win again

Agreed. That would not be a good result.

Would love to see Oscar take it.

 

[Richeypen]

After looking at the race route, I think Gerrans' chance of victory has increased. Cauberg will be too hard for Friere but the overall route is perfect for Gerrans.

Wouldn't be surprised if he took it at all. He looked very strong in Canada.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

The route isn't as hard as I thought. That is probably just better for my prediction that Gerrans is one of the top contenders.

I wouldn't be surprised if Boonen or Freire won. I think Sagan and Gilbert are pretty even favorites after watching the U23 and womens race.

 

[Netserk]

My heart wants either Boonen or Freire to win
Boonen: My fav rider
Freire: So we have him one more year

 

[Falken]

I'm leaning towards Sagan actually, given that he has regained some of his earlier form. Sure his team isn't that strong, but Sagan is used to getting little support. He should stay close to Boonen and Gilbert and let the belgians cover any dangerous attacks. And I firmly believe that Sagan can follow an attack by Gilbert on Cauberg quiet well.

 

[Dedelou]

Even though I am tempted to draw some conclusions based on the under 23 finish, I still hope that the difference in length and the difference in the team's composition will provide us with a totally different range of tactics leading to an exciting and unpredicted outcome.

 

[kanari]

The favourites the way I see it:

***** Gilbert
**** Gerrans, Valverde
*** Sagan, Rodriguez, Boonen
** Nibali, Freire, Terpstra, Kolobnev
* Voeckler, Degenkolb, Uran, Breschel, Costa

Having seen the two races today I've done some revisions to my favourites list:

***** Gilbert
**** Sagan, Gerrans
*** Valverde, Freire, Boonen
** Kolobnev, Degenkolb, Terpstra, Breschel
* Voeckler, Rodriguez, Uran, Moser, Costa

Upgraded: Sagan, Freire, Degenkolb, Breschel
Downgraded: Valverde, Rodriguez

Nibali is out and Moser is in with a star. So Nibali will probably end up winning now

 

[Descender]

After looking at the race route, I think Gerrans' chance of victory has increased. Cauberg will be too hard for Friere but the overall route is perfect for Gerrans.

The Cauberg too hard for Freire but not too hard for Gerrans?

 

[Miburo]

The Cauberg too hard for Freire but not too hard for Gerrans?

I agree, Gerrans won't be able to follow the likes of Gilbert and Valverde.

Hence I still think Contador will be good aswell, some people call him the great one for a reason you know and after wednesday he wants to set some things right i'm assuming.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I agree, Gerrans won't be able to follow the likes of Gilbert and Valverde.

Hence I still think Contador will be good aswell, some people call him the great one for a reason you know and after wednesday he wants to set some things right i'm assuming.

Yeah he might be good but I don't think he can win, I think a small group will sprint for the win.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Maybe Contador can pull a Fuente De?
Well at least if he goes crazy the Spanish team won't have to do any work.

Naw, I just hope Boonen, Freire or a Dutch rider will win this.

If Nibali tries one of those crazy solo's again, I'll be cheering for him too, though I don't think it will work.

I know he doesn't have a very big chance, but it would be so awesome if Freire takes another WC.

 

[Gloin22]

Chris Froome, who finished second at the Tour de France and third in the Olympic time trial, again behind Wiggins, intends to do all his work in the first 200km of the race

Froome will work exclusively in first 200km for JTL and pull out basically.

Froome will also ride Piemonte and Lombardia this month, if's anyone is wondering.

 

[Falken]

Yeah he might be good but I don't think he can win, I think a small group will sprint for the win.

Feltet.dk has an interview with Contador. He doesn't think the course is especially hard. He will wait to see how the race developes before he decides if he will try to attack. He realizes that Cauberg doesn't suit him that well, he would have like the final climb to be harder, about 1.5-2k. If he doesn't see a good chance for a successful attack he is prepared to act domestique.

http://www.feltet.dk/nyheder/contador_agerer_hjaelperytter_hvis_det_kraeves/

 

[Falken]

Froome will work exclusively in first 200km for JTL and pull out basically.

Froome will also ride Piemonte and Lombardia this month, if's anyone is wondering.

Froome must feel some real fatigue after a hard couple of months. Just wonder how he will get in shape for Piemonte and Lombardia, or will he just act as domestique in these races?

Don't expect much form GB tomorrw, can't imagine JTL will have anything to do with this.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Maybe Contador can pull a Fuente De?
Well at least if he goes crazy the Spanish team won't have to do any work.

Naw, I just hope Boonen, Freire or a Dutch rider will win this.

If Nibali tries one of those crazy solo's again, I'll be cheering for him too, though I don't think it will work.

I know he doesn't have a very big chance, but it would be so awesome if Freire takes another WC.

In my opinion Alberto should go in a break with one or two other Spaniards , force the other teams to do the work. And they can say we don't have to work cos we have some favorites in the peloton and in the peloton they can say we have two/three team mates in the break so we won't work. Perfect

 

[Duartista]

Froome will work exclusively in first 200km for JTL and pull out basically.

Froome will also ride Piemonte and Lombardia this month, if's anyone is wondering.

Where is that from? I just read on biciciclismo, quoting Ellingworth, that Cummings will be told to stick with JTL and they'll see how Froome is going after 150 km before deciding what his role will be.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I've noticed before that Gesink is the only Dutch rider he rates at all. Interesting.

Obviously, after Quebec last year.

 

[Gloin22]

Where is that from? I just read on biciciclismo, quoting Ellingworth, that Cummings will be told to stick with JTL and they'll see how Froome is going after 150 km before deciding what his role will be.

BBC They might be wrong, but I am kinda sure Froome will pull out of the race at some point.