2012 Road World Championships, Mens Road Race Maastricht - Valkenburg 267 km 23/09/12

[greenedge]

JTL would have won this if he was familiar with the course ( lol ). Instead he will not place as well.

Gilbert, Gerrans, Sagan, Valverde/JROD and Boonen look the most likely to win.

I would love for Moser or Inglinsky to go well too.

Most people did not see Gerrans beating Cancellara or GVA in sprints though either. Another Example the first hilltop finish in the Vuelta- Valverde beating JROD.

JROD might not be able to get so much of a gap on the cauberg but in Barcelona in the Vuelta he barely moved his bike and he was close to Gilbert. Besides he is still a favourite because there is a distinct chance he could get the gap. The race should also be quite hard if Spain want to pursue that option.

 

[Oliver]

Why do you think he won't?
It's his #1 goal for the season.

Why isn't he at the start list then?

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Gilbert & Valverde will have to be dropped, can't see him winning a sprint which includes them.

I'd say Gerrans is faster than both.

This year he has outsprinted Meersman, Cancellara, Van Avermaet and Hagen (admittedly slightly uphill). The Gerrans-Valverde battle on Old Willunga Hill this year was very close, but Valverde had a slight advantage on that finish compared to the WC one.

It's probably close in any case. Gilbert was very fast in last year's Tour, I'll give you that.

 

[JRanton]

I'd say Gerrans is faster than both.

This year he has outsprinted Meersman, Cancellara, Van Avermaet and Hagen (admittedly slightly uphill). The Gerrans-Valverde battle on Old Willunga Hill this year was very close, but Valverde had a slight advantage on that finish compared to the WC one.

There was also a flat sprint finish for crucial bonus seconds on stage 2 of the TDU into Stirling.

Result:

1. Clarke - won solo in a breakaway

2. Matthews
3. Gerrans
4. Valverde
5. EBH
6. Friere
7. Van Avermaet


Obviously it's much different to sprinting at the end of a tough 260km worlds course but it shows that Gerrans has plenty of speed, and I'd agree with you that he's just slightly faster than Valverde.

 

[CasperVg]

Gerrans for the win here. Course suits him perfectly and he's been in better shape than Gilbert all season

 

[the asian]

I'd say Gerrans is faster than both.

This year he has outsprinted Meersman, Cancellara, Van Avermaet and Hagen (admittedly slightly uphill). The Gerrans-Valverde battle on Old Willunga Hill this year was very close, but Valverde had a slight advantage on that finish compared to the WC one.

It's probably close in any case. Gilbert was very fast in last year's Tour, I'll give you that.

Fair point. Gerrans is in form no doubt about that. But IMO when Gilbert and Valverde are in good form they are better finishers than Gerrans and I do think both are in good form right now( Not at their best but in very good form)

 

[theyoungest]

There was also a flat sprint finish for crucial bonus seconds on stage 2 of the TDU into Stirling.

Result:

1. Clarke - won solo in a breakaway

2. Matthews
3. Gerrans
4. Valverde
5. EBH
6. Friere
7. Van Avermaet


Obviously it's much different to sprinting at the end of a tough 260km worlds course but it shows that Gerrans has plenty of speed, and I'd agree with you that he's just slightly faster than Valverde.

That wasn't a flat sprint. And I remember Gerrans kind of surprised Valverde.

Valverde outsprinted Gerrans on top of Willunga Hill, after all.

 

[vladimir]

I am surprised that so few are rating Kolobnev among the favourites for Sunday. He har been on the podium twice in the worlds before, showed in Montreal that his form is good, and the course should suit him. He doesn't win very often, but my clear choise for an outiside bet for a top three finish

 

[Netserk]

I am surprised that so few are rating Kolobnev among the favourites for Sunday. He har been on the podium twice in the worlds before, showed in Montreal that his form is good, and the course should suit him. He doesn't win very often, but my clear choise for an outiside bet for a top three finish

I have a little money on him finishing in the top-3

 

[theyoungest]

Michel Wuyt's said he thinks the Spaniards dug too deep in the Vuelta, he was aiming at Contador, Valverde and Rodriguez. He thought Contador's tt was horrible.

I like the fact that there is some flat after the Cauberg. It totally adds a new dimension to the race. Instead of two kinds of possible winners, there are now three: Riders who want to come back after the Cauberg en win the sprint (Boonen, Freire, Sagan), riders who want to decide the race on the final ascent (Valverde, Gilbert, Rodriguez) and riders who have to attack before that. In the Gold race sprinters wouldn't have that chance to win

Michel Wuyts' predictions are always just wishful thinking. "The Spaniards will be worse than the Belgians because... The Italians will be worse than the Belgians because..." And everyone will be worse than Boonen.

What could work in the Belgians' favour (and to the Spaniards' disadvantage) is the expected crap weather. The predictions vary, some say it will be dry, but they all predict wind.

 

[rxgqgxnyfz]

Why isn't he at the start list then?

What start list?
The official site doesn't have it.

 

[Orbit501]

Why do you think he won't?
It's his #1 goal for the season.

Because a provisional list I've seen doesn't have him on it.

The reason I ask is exactly as you say...I think he'll do very well here, if he rides.

 

[the asian]

I am surprised that so few are rating Kolobnev among the favourites for Sunday. He har been on the podium twice in the worlds before, showed in Montreal that his form is good, and the course should suit him. He doesn't win very often, but my clear choise for an outiside bet for a top three finish

He's not a favourite to win because He's a favourite to finish 2nd or 3rd

I have a little money on him finishing in the top-3

definitely worth punting.

 

[El Pistolero]

I'd say Gerrans is faster than both.

This year he has outsprinted Meersman, Cancellara, Van Avermaet and Hagen (admittedly slightly uphill). The Gerrans-Valverde battle on Old Willunga Hill this year was very close, but Valverde had a slight advantage on that finish compared to the WC one.

It's probably close in any case. Gilbert was very fast in last year's Tour, I'll give you that.

After wheelsucking him the entire time.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

After wheelsucking him the entire time.

Uh, well of course. What's the point?

Valverde and Gerrans are pretty similar in this aspect.

 

[El Pistolero]

Uh, well of course. What's the point?

Valverde and Gerrans are pretty similar in this aspect.

And Gerrans is not someone who wins a lot now does he?

Anyway, I don't believe for once Gerrans can hold the wheel of Gilbert, Rodriguez or Valverde if they're in top shape. The Cauberg is not the Poggio.

 

[BillytheKid]

There was also a flat sprint finish for crucial bonus seconds on stage 2 of the TDU into Stirling.

Result:

1. Clarke - won solo in a breakaway

2. Matthews
3. Gerrans
4. Valverde
5. EBH
6. Friere
7. Van Avermaet


Obviously it's much different to sprinting at the end of a tough 260km worlds course but it shows that Gerrans has plenty of speed, and I'd agree with you that he's just slightly faster than Valverde.

I think a small break will be likely on the second to the last time up the Cauberg or possibly sooner. The chasing favorites will have trouble working together.

At least that's may hope. I think (being completely partial), the US has a very strong team, especially now that Talansky has been added in place of Farrar. Talnsky and Van Garderen could attack alternately and from 16 k out. This could be true of a at least a dozen others. Even a solo effort stands a good chance on this course. Late attacks to rule the day?

The sprinters go up in smoke.

 

[cineteq]

At least that's may hope. I think (being completely partial), the US has a very strong team, especially now that Talansky has been added in place of Farrar. Talnsky and Van Garderen could attack alternately and from 16 k out. This could be true of a at least a dozen others. Even a solo effort stands a good chance on this course. Late attacks to rule the day?

Keep dreaming dude.

What start list?
The official site doesn't have it.

Official
http://www.uci.ch/includes/asp/getTarget.asp?type=FILE&id=ODA2Nzg
Good one
http://biciciclismo.com/cas/site/noticias-ficha.asp?id=55462

 

[The Barb]

Valverde outsprinted Gerrans on top of Willunga Hill, after all.

Gerrans plainly went too early in that stage and got beaten by inches.

I'd say there's virtually nothing between them in a sprint but maybe a slight edge to Gerrans.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Gerrans plainly went too early in that stage and got beaten by inches.

I'd say there's virtually nothing between them in a sprint but maybe a slight edge to Gerrans.

I would agree. Gerrans has become very quick in those types of sprints. Very fast turn of speed and I wouldn't want to be with him at the finish at all.

In saying that, I think Belgium, Italy and Spain will make the race very hard and therefore I don't see Gerrans featuring if those teams actually make it hard.

 

[The Hitch]

What could work in the Belgians' favour (and to the Spaniards' disadvantage) is the expected crap weather. The predictions vary, some say it will be dry, but they all predict wind.

Looks pretty damn cold to me.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Looks pretty damn cold to me.

Oh God. Why do the Spanish team have to wear those awful looking jerseys? Hideous.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Looks pretty damn cold to me.

It is pretty damn cold here. I'm freezing.

 

[auscyclefan94]

It is pretty damn cold here. I'm freezing.

Are you going to the Worlds to watch Alberto on Sunday? I am surprised that you have not been stalking him already.

 

[noddy69]

Got to agree with most, I think Gilbert, gerrans and sagan could play out the finish, Wegmann could be a useful outsider as another who hasnt had a mention at all, Dan Martin who I believe is suited to the course after a good showing in LBL earlier in the year.