2012 Tour de France: Stage 13: Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux → Le Cap d'Agde (217 km)

[Geraint Too Fast]

First this will happen

then quite a lot of this

then some of this

and finally this

 

[auscyclefan94]

[SNIP]

**** it, I am not watching now!

 

[maxmartin]

Cavendish, Greipel, Goss has no chance to make it
Sagan maybe
Sky might do another huge damage on this little climb

 

[maxmartin]

Hummm!. I don't imagine he will win, but he will race with anger. This one is for Cav to even the count 3 for 3

cav can be easily dropped 1-2 mins on the final climb, it is not going to be a pure sprinter day

 

[maxmartin]

Just listened to the weather on CNN and they were doing it for the up coming stage as well and it said there could be gusts of up to 40kmph.

yep this stage might have the potential to be a very dramatic day

 

[movingtarget]

Just listened to the weather on CNN and they said there could be gusts of up to 40kmph for the up coming stage.

Great news. Which GC riders will get caught in the wrong echelon ? Probably Menchov for one. As if he needs another bad result.

 

[maxmartin]

Great news. Which GC riders will get caught in the wrong echelon ? Probably Menchov for one. As if he needs another bad result.

at this point I would not count Menchov as a GC rider in this tour any more
I am more worried about Nibali, if Sagan Oss take off for stage win, Sky can potentially distant Nibali. Hopefully Sagan can ride for Nibali while keeping the chance of stage win.

 

[Warhawk]

I think this is a Cav stage.

And the climb toward the end I think is much more likely to be a springboard to launch a breakaway (like Gilbert, for instance) than to actually eliminate a sprinter. It's too short to cause too much breakup, even if it is steep, and the sprinters will basically have all day to get ready for it.

The wind, of course, may make things more interesting though.

 

[Warhawk]

Great news. Which GC riders will get caught in the wrong echelon ? Probably Menchov for one. As if he needs another bad result.

Usually a good bet.

Cadel and Tejay will be up front as they've been every time on these stages. You can set your watch by it.

 

[maxmartin]

I think this is a Cav stage.

And the climb toward the end I think is much more likely to be a springboard to launch a breakaway (like Gilbert, for instance) than to actually eliminate a sprinter. It's too short to cause too much breakup, even if it is steep, and the sprinters will basically have all day to get ready for it.

The wind, of course, may make things more interesting though.

no way
cav goss, greiple can be easily dropped 1-2 mins on the final climb, it is not going to be a pure sprinter day. not happening

 

[Warhawk]

no way
cav goss, greiple can be easily dropped 1-2 mins on the final climb, it is not going to be a pure sprinter day. not happening

Who are you trying to convince?

But seriously, if it's not a sprinter stage I think it'll be because of the wind, not because of the climb. With over 20k to go after they get over it, I just don't think it'll be much of a factor by itself.

 

[maxmartin]

Who are you trying to convince?

you have to know Nobody is working for Cav, they are only working for F and W, so there is no way for him to catch up again especially with the wind. Except Greenedge may start chasing, but i don't think greenedge is strong enough or Goss is dropped so far they might just as well give up. If Cav is in old HTC, he might still have a shot.

 

[MizzouJack]

Usually a good bet.

Cadel and Tejay will be up front as they've been every time on these stages. You can set your watch by it.

Any team that has big George on it will never be caught out in echelons, every time I have ever seen the field split up the wind during the tour their are 2 riders involved in everyone were George and Fabian

 

[Pricey_sky]

cav can be easily dropped 1-2 mins on the final climb, it is not going to be a pure sprinter day

The final climb is only 1.6km long so doubt he will lose 2 mins unless he gets off his bike and walks up it

One or two sprinters may get detached at the back though and struggle to get back but i doubt any sprinter in decent shape will lose alot of time there.

 

[Warhawk]

The final climb is only 1.6km long so doubt he will lose 2 mins unless he gets off his bike and walks up it

One or two sprinters may get detached at the back though and struggle to get back but i doubt any sprinter in decent shape will lose alot of time there.

You could have just said "Tyler Farrar" y'know.

 

[Pricey_sky]

You could have just said "Tyler Farrar" y'know.

Indeed, what has happened to him over the last 2 weeks? I put him in my tour dream team for the first weeks sprint stages and he wasn't involved at all

 

[Random Direction]

Hey, he's actually got a chance to lose the lanterne rouge in this stage.

In other words Feillu is up to 135th after being eons down as the latnerne rouge from his early sickness (how in heaven's name did he manage to keep riding anyways?)

 

[Warhawk]

Indeed, what has happened to him over the last 2 weeks? I put him in my tour dream team for the first weeks sprint stages and he wasn't involved at all

The tarmac happened to him, mostly.

 

[jacko_69]

This stage is going to b a nervous one if the wind gets up as forecast (20km/h WNW). Lots of teams scrambling to b at the front.
An ill-timed mechanical or poor positioning could see a GC contender lose loads of time, if it was Wiggins, that would b high drama, would the bunch wait? Would Froome go back to help, or b seen on the front taking turns like Armstrong in 2009.

All highly unlikely, here's hoping the wind gets up!

 

[diorgen]

Why would they have such a flat boring stage on a saturday? And Bastille day no less. This is gonna be a snoozer for sure. Prudhomme should be fired.

 

[Random Direction]

Why would they have such a flat boring stage on a saturday? And Bastille day no less. This is gonna be a snoozer for sure. Prudhomme should be fired.

Le Cap d'Agde is a major resort town. Great marketing stage for a big holiday. Also has a 40,000 person naturist village ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cap_d'Agde) .

 

[auscyclefan94]

GreenEdge (the horse) has taken a fall this afternoon at the races which is not a good Omen for the GreenEdge riders!

 

[Random Direction]

This stage is going to b a nervous one if the wind gets up as forecast (20km/h WNW). Lots of teams scrambling to b at the front.
An ill-timed mechanical or poor positioning could see a GC contender lose loads of time, if it was Wiggins, that would b high drama, would the bunch wait? Would Froome go back to help, or b seen on the front taking turns like Armstrong in 2009.

All highly unlikely, here's hoping the wind gets up!

This could turn interesting. Wind is currently forecast WNW 25 k/hr in Agde, meaning that from immediately after the big hill near Sete to the finish there will be a pancake flat 20 km run in with a crosswind (slightly to the head) travelling 5km across an exposed bay.

o.k., so what could this mean to the race? Echelons, sprinters caught behind not being able to catch up, Sagan wins?

 

[auscyclefan94]

There will be crashes in the final 20km...no doubt about it.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Mayo, Moreau and Vino. 2001 Midi Libre.
Mont St Clair at around 13 minutes.
http://zomobo.net/play.php?id=YuHaT1bOF4s