2012 Tour de France: Stage 16: Pau → Bagnères-de-Luchon, 197 km

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Tigerion

Tigerion

Jul 21, 2011
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Climbing said:
Basso? Szmyd? That would be some kind of a miracle. Liquigas is just Nibali-Sagan and lots of shadows. The point of bringing riders from Giro to the Tour it's a mistery to me, unless they did that un purpose considering Nibali is leaving (but I don't think so).
Probably only an alliance VdB Evans Nibali could work, but would they risk everything? :(
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All they need to do is set a high enough pace on the first climb to drop the flat landers. If they let EBH control the first climb I will be a sad panda. Maybe it is the alliance with Basso, Hincapie and Roelandts sacrificing themselves early.

I agree that they need that alliance, but if they want to have a chance of it working then need to start working sky over with the teams before they attack.
 
Bernie's eyesore

Bernie's eyesore

Sep 14, 2011
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Surely if Basso and Szmyd set the pace up the early climbs it will just allow Rogers and Porte to sit back so that they can be there later for Wiggins.
 
auscyclefan94

auscyclefan94

Jun 16, 2009
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Bernie's eyesore said:
Surely if Basso and Szmyd set the pace up the early climbs it will just allow Rogers and Porte to sit back so that they can be there later for Wiggins.
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If basso and szmyd are riding well enough, they may either drop porte or rogers, or the effect that rogers and porte have will be nullified. If Sky simply have control of the front of the peloton all day, then Sky can just dictate the pace to everyone like they have done so before. Teams need to stop being afraid of taking it up to Team Sky.

Anyway, John Wilcockson wrote a good op-ed today.

http://www.pelotonmagazine.com/Le-Tour/content/24/1698/The-Tour-is-Not-Over-Till-It-is-Over
 
W

Waterloo Sunrise

Sep 9, 2009
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Sky like a consistent high pace.

Basso and Szmyd at their best are all about a consistent high pace.

Seems a bit straw clutchy to me.
 
auscyclefan94

auscyclefan94

Jun 16, 2009
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Waterloo Sunrise said:
Sky like a consistent high pace.

Basso and Szmyd at their best are all about a consistent high pace.

Seems a bit straw clutchy to me.
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A consistent pace yes, but nobody likes a high pace on a climb unless you are the best climber in the world because it hurts one's legs. Many of the stages this year have been raced rather slowly and that is partially why riders like Knees, EBH and Porte have done so well on the climbs.
 
M

Mellow Velo

Mar 11, 2009
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auscyclefan94 said:
A consistent pace yes, but nobody likes a high pace on a climb unless you are the best climber in the world because it hurts one's legs. Many of the stages this year have been raced rather slowly and that is partially why riders like Knees, EBH and Porte have done so well on the climbs.
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Indeed.
Imo, speeds had to come down for clinic related things to change.
Therefore it's less surprising to see these guys on the front, than
if speeds were higher.

Marginal gains can be overcome by marginal increases in tempo.
I'm just not sure that Basso and Szmyd are up to the task.
Maybe they have been saving it up for the Pyrenees, but I suspect not.

I'm still convinced that some will fall foul of the weather conditions.
4 big climbs in 90F will not be to everyone's taste.
Ullrich would have been licking his lips!
 
auscyclefan94

auscyclefan94

Jun 16, 2009
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Mellow Velo said:
Indeed.
Imo, speeds had to come down for clinic related things to change.
Therefore it's less surprising to see these guys on the front, than
if speeds were higher.

Marginal gains can be overcome by marginal increases in tempo.
I'm just not sure that Basso and Szmyd are up to the task.
Maybe they have been saving it up for the Pyrenees, but I suspect not.

I'm still convinced that some will fall foul of the weather conditions.
4 big climbs in 90F will not be to everyone's taste.
Ullrich would have been licking his lips!
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Is it going to be 90F (32oC) :eek:! That's going to be very hot for the riders. I do agree with you that it seems Basso and Szmyd do not have the form to do some damage for Nibali but let's hope they can for the next two stages at least.
 
F

Fergoose

Aug 19, 2011
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The saving grace could be that Nibali will need time on Evans if he wants to cement his podium. However, to do that he'll probably leave an attack until the final climb. If he attacks from further out he is more likely to jeopardise his podium than consolidate it. A TdF podium would be a big deal for Nibali.

VdB is the one who would have to strike from further out if he has ambitions, but I think it's unlikely he'll gamble from that far out. He strikes me as a very conservative rider.

Is this new Evans mad enough to have a go on the Tourmalet? His attacks have been so unpredictable it is possible, but I think not.

Sky don't need to react to anyone who isn't one of the three named above and can just serenely pace themselves up the climbs. So sadly, I can't see anyone making an effort to dislodge the likes of Porte & Rogers before the final climb so time gaps will likely be minimal. If we see the likes of EBH or Cavendish being allowed to pace the peloton up the Tourmalet, I think a little bit of me will die inside. A shame as I think if it is hot Wiggins will be vulnerable over multiple climbs.
 
gregrowlerson

gregrowlerson

Aug 6, 2010
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Looking forward to these next two stages. Hoping for Kloden to move into the top ten after tonight. Even if there are not attacks on the first two climbs, they should still hurt the legs a little for significant action on the final climb and descent.

Overall I haven't minded the race too much, but stage 14 was ridiculous to have Cav leading the group on the second category 1 climb of the day. Shouldn't be anything of the sort happen in the next two days.
 
auscyclefan94

auscyclefan94

Jun 16, 2009
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Fergoose said:
The saving grace could be that Nibali will need time on Evans if he wants to cement his podium. However, to do that he'll probably leave an attack until the final climb. If he attacks from further out he is more likely to jeopardise his podium than consolidate it. A TdF podium would be a big deal for Nibali.

VdB is the one who would have to strike from further out if he has ambitions, but I think it's unlikely he'll gamble from that far out. He strikes me as a very conservative rider.

Is this new Evans mad enough to have a go on the Tourmalet? His attacks have been so unpredictable it is possible, but I think not.
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Evans wont attack on the Tourmalet but potentially on the Aspin and definitely on the Peyresoude (if he has the legs).
 
Lexman

Lexman

Jul 2, 2011
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will10 said:
Quick prediction:

stage16.jpg
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LOL and the spint to be won by Wiggins like in Romandie?
 
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