I'm not the only one who has stated as much, I've just done it more often to counter the hyped up talk of a Sky train. Especially after the weak Dauphine.
Rogers is a decent rider. Good chrono, decent climber. But thats in week long races. Same with Porte. In GT's and they have done a few, they have been lacklustre. Seriously banking on history mysteriously not following the patterns it has, let alone in a 3 week GT where the racing is harder and recovery plays a big part in your fatigue levels day in day out, is asking for too much. History says on Froome will be there. If Richie Porte wasn't there for Alberto Contador, what makes anyone here think it will be different for Bradley Wiggins? Only fanboy non-sense does.
Think about it this way. Which teams in the past two years have had big climbers and strong domestiques in the Grand Tours? Only a few. Wiggins wasn't one of those strong climbers. Nor were his domestiques...case can be made for Froome though. Actually nobody on there team has actually measured up against the big names climbing. Sure AC and Andy Schleck aren't here, but there are some strong climbers. Even stronger domestiques.
Take Liquigas. They brought Szymd and Basso to help Nibali. RSNT has Maxime Monfort, Chris Horner, Zubeldia on top of Franck Schleck and Andreas Kloden. Rabobank has Mollema, Kruisjwik and Gesink. Movistar have Kirienka, Costa, Cobo and finally Valverde. Garmin have multiple top 10 GC finishers, the winner of the Giro and also what I think is a very in form Dan Martin. Oh and Lotto have Vanendert and van den Broecke. Evans has TJVG and a throng of guys who HAVE not put a foot wrong so far and will help him. All of them have more promise and pedigree than Sky. I also didn't mention Samu and Euskatel nor Europcar and their man Rolland. Also the Russian's at Katusha.
Take their efforts OVER 3 weeks in the past. When on form, they are clearly superior than Porte and Rogers. As I said, Froome IMO is the only guarantee. It would take a Clinic-esque turn around for that to change. No team was ever going to have a train pulling at the front day in and day out breaking everyone in the mountains. That's the hype and garbage I've been countering for weeks now here. There will be a number of fights. Big heavy days when the guys start punching, the only reason lower domestiques are in the front bunch is because they are going slower. Rogers and Porte will be dropped a lot. The Train was a myth. Come the final mountain on the hard days everyone seriously races, with the riders at the front select niche group, it will be Wiggins and/or Froome. The rest of Sky will be next to useless at that point.