2012 Tour de France: Stage 7: Tomblaine → La Planche des Belles Filles (199km)

[movingtarget]

Have you looked at the finish? It is pretty steep and explosive. Even if the big favourites mark each other, due to the >20% gradients in the final km, a time gap will open either way.

Even though he has said he is feeling fresher and better than last year? People seem to give the Dauphine too much creedance.

You might be right. Evans definitely likes these finishes. I don't judge Wiggins just on the Dauphine but from his climbing in general. He has been working on his climbing and I think it shows. I think Cadel's strength will show more in the third week if he has timed it right like last year.

 

[Simply The Best]

Have you looked at the finish? It is pretty steep and explosive. Even if the big favourites mark each other, due to the >20% gradients in the final km, a time gap will open either way.

Even though he has said he is feeling fresher and better than last year? People seem to give the Dauphine too much creedance.

I didn't think Evans did to bad at the dauphine only the ITT that he lost time to wiggins..... I think? Plus the Mountain stages weren't really selective enough to break Wiggans on any big climbs. Plus for the people that think there won't be any time gaps today this isn't the Dauphine so Sanchez, Nibali, Menchov ect aren't just going to let Sky control the climbs that easily, especially on one of only 3 mountains top finishes. Plus if Valverde magically finds some climbing that would definetely spice things up.

 

[movingtarget]

Actually cadel was better in the dauphine this year than he was last year.
Maybe people say he looks weaker this year because cadel was so freaking impressive in the first week last year. However this year the stages have not suited him as much as they did last year. Like the up hill finishes this year were more like sprints and they were not long enough for cadel to fully show his strength. That's why today will be very interesting to see how cadel's form is currently.

Not sure about that. His TT in the Dauphine was better last year.

 

[The Barb]

He (Evans) does look somewhat weaker than last year.

I think he looks every bit as good as last year. Building nicely and always near the front of the peloton.

 

[dlwssonic]

Not sure about that. His TT in the Dauphine was better last year.

Nope I think it was around the same. The TT course in the dauphine last year suited evans quite a lot and he didn't do great there too.

 

[movingtarget]

I didn't think Evans did to bad at the dauphine only the ITT that he lost time to wiggins..... I think? Plus the Mountain stages weren't really selective enough to break Wiggans on any big climbs. Plus for the people that think there won't be any time gaps today this isn't the Dauphine so Sanchez, Nibali, Menchov ect aren't just going to let Sky control the climbs that easily, especially on one of only 3 mountains top finishes. Plus if Valverde magically finds some climbing that would definetely spice things up.

Can't see Sky controlling the final climb today. Rogers and Porte will probably get dropped so that leaves Wiggins with possibly only Froome for the finish.

 

[dlwssonic]

Yup porte is banged up and I don't think rogers can do much on this climb too.
One of their best climbers siutsou has abandoned too.
Froome will be very important for wiggins today.

 

[boomcie]

Even though he has said he is feeling fresher and better than last year? People seem to give the Dauphine too much creedance.

Even though yes. I'm not just talking about the Dauphiné, he simply looks less imposing than last year.

 

[cesko_jr]

Movistar Team down to only six riders

Erviti and Gutiérrez won't take the start today at Tour de France's stage six after injuries sustained at yesterday's terrible crash, who consequences are hoped to be overcome by the other Blue riders affected

 

[Mellow Velo]

Actually cadel was better in the dauphine this year than he was last year.
Maybe people say he looks weaker this year because cadel was so freaking impressive in the first week last year. However this year the stages have not suited him as much as they did last year. Like the up hill finishes this year were more like sprints and they were not long enough for cadel to fully show his strength. That's why today will be very interesting to see how cadel's form is currently.

I agree with this. He's ridden a flawless first week, but appears to me to be a couple of % down on last year, from the evidence of the stage finishes.
May well be as much to do with the parcour as anything.

Yup porte is banged up and I don't think rogers can do much on this climb too.
One of their best climbers siutsou has abandoned too.
Froome will be very important for wiggins today.

I don't agree with this.
The climb is just too short, imo.
In any case, it's one that should suit Froome.

Not sure who, besides Cadel, would be suited for BMC.


I think Evans might as well go hard for yellow, as to play the TDF, watch and wait game. The theory of not wanting the jersey too early doesn't wash.
One stage and then it's the first ITT. Can't soft pedal that.

 

[karlboss]

There are several really steep pitches so gaps will open up, I'd guess from first GC favourite to last about a minute, anyone outside of that can start hoping for a miracle.
I'd like liquigas to go for it, but while they may be able to drop many of the others i don't think they have anyone who could win this. I like Sanchez for the win.

 

[LaFleur]

Vaughters on twitter:

Jonathan Vaughters ‏@Vaughters
Hesjedal is not going to start. Sad, but he'll be back

 

[Kwibus]

This is a climb where some riders could put some time into Wiggins, but nothing will happen.

 

[Bye Bye Bicycle]

Johannes Fröhlinger (Argos) will start today, despite a broken hand.

 

[Sylvester]

Any news on Verdugo?

 

[blaxland]

Probably a group of 20-25 riders together at the finish with Sagan,Evans,Sanchez filling the places.No major loses here today for the favourites

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Probably a group of 20-25 riders together at the finish with Sagan,Evans,Sanchez filling the places.No major loses here today for the favourites

lol did you see the profile of the final climb?

 

[The Barb]

I can't believe how many people think Sagan will make it to finish with the leaders. There's just no way in the world.

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Bring on UK Postal - all aboard the Sky Train

I think time gaps today will be much smaller than some think.

 

[Lance Armstrong]

I can't believe how many people think Sagan will make it to finish with the leaders. There's just no way in the world.

He is capable of top 50, but he won't even try. He will save energy for tomorrow.

 

[jens_attacks]

wiggo just at 41 odds
and froome at 101.
if rolland is really injured,this can be easy money

we shall see

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Bring on UK Postal - all aboard the Sky Train

I'm sorry, did you see the profile of the final climb?

If the big guys have any incentive to race on a climb like this, no way any team can pull off controlling it. Just too steep. You don't control an 8,5% climb, that is very irregular in gradient. It's the worst type of climb to control for trains with TTing climbers.

Of course the riders have to make the race. With guys like Schleck and Gesink crashing yesterday, maybe there will be less riders wanting to attack though. But seriously, if the big guys attack, no way Sky will conrol it on a climb like this. Nor any other team.

 

[taiwan]

Vaughters on twitter:

Jonathan Vaughters ‏@Vaughters
Hesjedal is not going to start. Sad, but he'll be back

What a terrible Tour for Garmin Sharp.

 

[jens_attacks]

I'm sorry, did you see the profile of the final climb?

If the big guys have any incentive to race on a climb like this, no way any team can pull off controlling it. Just too steep. You don't control an 8,5% climb, that is very irregular in gradient. It's the worst type of climb to control for trains with TTing climbers.

Of course the riders have to make the race. With guys like Schleck and Gesink crashing yesterday, maybe there will be less riders wanting to attack though. But seriously, if the big guys attack, no way Sky will conrol it on a climb like this. Nor any other team.

richie controled mende with an iron fist

there is absolutely no chance in hell somebody can attack when EBH is hammering...the only attack i fear, can come only in the last 2 km.and that will be only possible if froomy has a bad day

 

[Dutchsmurf]

If the big guys have any incentive to race on a climb like this, no way any team can pull off controlling it.

I don't see which big guys have any incentive to attack. Wiggins won't. Menchov probably won't. Evans might, but more for the stage than for time. Nibali and Sanchez will be more going for the stage than anything else. It will be an TTT up the hill until the last kilometer with attacks for the stage. Top 10 to finish within 30 seconds.

Any attacks made by people like Schleck and Gesink don't matter for the Sky train. Those guys are far back and are going to lose even more time Monday. If you think ahead a little, Schleck is effectively 5+ minutes behind already. Gesink is effectively at 5+ minutes too. Everyone that lost time yesterday is instantly irrelevant for Sky.

So who are we actually expecting to attack? I'm going for Taaramae, but I doubt he counts as big guy.