2012 Tour de France: Stage 7: Tomblaine → La Planche des Belles Filles (199km)

[The Barb]

I don't see which big guys have any incentive to attack. Wiggins won't. Menchov probably won't. Evans might, but more for the stage than for time.

I think all the big guys except Wiggins have an incentive to attack, as they can't think they're going to beat him in the time trials.

The only reason Evans will attack is for time. He has to grab time on Wiggins on multiple stages, and this climb (with it's changing gradients unsuited to Wiggins) is as good as anywhere.

 

[Ferminal]

wiggo just at 41 odds
and froome at 101.
if rolland is really injured,this can be easy money

we shall see

No bonuses >>>>>>>>>>>> Breakaway.

 

[maltiv]

richie controled mende with an iron fist

there is absolutely no chance in hell somebody can attack when EBH is hammering...the only attack i fear, can come only in the last 2 km.and that will be only possible if froomy has a bad day

After losing Sivtsov, Sky might have to use EBH on the flat. Knees can't do everything himself, unfortunately.

 

[hughmoore]

No bonuses >>>>>>>>>>>> Breakaway.

Somewhat agree especially if it wont affect the Yellow.

 

[the asian]

Hesjedal, Martin Vande Velde podium. You will see.

Sorry about your disappointment.

 

[jens_attacks]

After losing Sivtsov, Sky might have to use EBH on the flat. Knees can't do everything himself, unfortunately.

that might be true so Ferminal got a point on this one

i hope astana will put some riders in the breakaway

 

[Frosty]

Somewhat agree especially if it wont affect the Yellow.

Depends how much a GC guy wants the yellow though and how sure he is that he can get it on the final climb. I think Chavanel will at least try to be in the break ala the stage on the second Saturday two years ago. The GC guys know he will lose it on the big mountains stages, so if he takes it by a few minutes its not a concern.

Maybe Sagan could give the break a go and try to get yellow? Not sure who else high up on overall at the moment would be allowed to get away, maybe Marcato?

 

[the asian]

Probably a group of 20-25 riders together at the finish with Sagan,Evans,Sanchez filling the places.No major loses here today for the favourites

No way Sagan finishes in the lead group. There won't be havoc today, but one or two favourites should crack.
And when did sagan become a favourite for GC??

 

[Panda Claws]

No way Sagan finishes in the lead group. There won't be havoc today, but one or two favourites should crack.
And when did sagan become a favourite for GC??

Sagan also said that he would be taking it easy today.

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Depends how much a GC guy wants the yellow though and how sure he is that he can get it on the final climb. I think Chavanel will at least try to be in the break ala the stage on the second Saturday two years ago. The GC guys know he will lose it on the big mountains stages, so if he takes it by a few minutes its not a concern.

Maybe Sagan could give the break a go and try to get yellow? Not sure who else high up on overall at the moment would be allowed to get away, maybe Marcato?

Personally I dont think the GC guys will give Chavanel that much room. Voeckler nearly turned into a big problem last year.

What are Chavanel's TT abilities ?

 

[the asian]

Personally I dont think the GC guys will give Chavanel that much room. Voeckler nearly turned into a big problem last year.

What are Chavanel's TT abilities ?

Chava is a very good Time Trialler.

 

[Netserk]

Personally I dont think the GC guys will give Chavanel that much room. Voeckler nearly turned into a big problem last year.

What are Chavanel's TT abilities ?

Great!

 

[Frosty]

Personally I dont think the GC guys will give Chavanel that much room. Voeckler nearly turned into a big problem last year.

What are Chavanel's TT abilities ?

Great TTer, not so good in the big mountains though. After he won the stage 2 years ago he lost 10 minutes the next day to Morzine-Avoriaz. If he was to end up a couple of minutes ahead then i dont think people would be that worried as surely he will lose more than a couple of minutes on stages like the one to Le Toussuire.

I suppose the analogy is quite a good one though as people would have laughed at the idea of Voeckler doing that well in last year's tour before it started. Its just that if a lot of people are trying to get off the front then he is not the one that Sky, BMC, Katusha have to watch out for most so he might be let go.

Finishing on a 1st cat climb should encourage some King of the Mountain contenders to get in the break - tomorrow is also a good stage.

 

[taiwan]

Bring on UK Postal - all aboard the Sky Train

I think time gaps today will be much smaller than some think.

Yay for predictable racing.

If the Paris-Nice and Dauphinee are anything to go by though, some lesser name will be able to get away.

 

[Bobby G]

Rob Ruijgh is @1.75 to finish ahead of Hubert Dupont in todays stage on Bet365. Dupont isn't starting. Not sure what Bet365s rule is on whether both riders must start the stage or not. Chucked £100 on anyway. We'll see what happens.

 

[iZnoGouD]

free money i want too!

 

[wirral]

Rob Ruijgh is @1.75 to finish ahead of Hubert Dupont in todays stage on Bet365. Dupont isn't starting. Not sure what Bet365s rule is on whether both riders must start the stage or not. Chucked £100 on anyway. We'll see what happens.

Void bet.

Some bookies let the bet stand. I think Bet Victor do or did. Once won £500 betting against a non-rider.

 

[The Barb]

Rob Ruijgh is @1.75 to finish ahead of Hubert Dupont in todays stage on Bet365. Dupont isn't starting. Not sure what Bet365s rule is on whether both riders must start the stage or not. Chucked £100 on anyway. We'll see what happens.

Pretty sure both riders must start for bets to stand.
Therefore refund all bets.

 

[Bobby G]

Void bet.

Some bookies let the bet stand. I think Bet Victor do or did. Once won £500 betting against a non-rider.

Ah well. No damage. Thought it was worth a shot.

 

[taiwan]

IDK how this is even a good stage for Chavanel. I didn't think he was any good on steep stuff.

 

[iZnoGouD]

some insight into today's stage

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjjAGNx2DTw&feature=plcp

 

[Frosty]

IDK how this is even a good stage for Chavanel. I didn't think he was any good on steep stuff.

If he is aiming to get yellow then i would have thought it is an opportunity to take it from the break as Cancellara is not going to defend? Am not saying that it is a stage he is otherwise suited to. Tomorrow is more his kind of stage but there could be someone else in the yellow jersey by that time who is keener to defend.

 

[Frosty]

They are off, Delaplace has a fractured wrist and has already been dropped. Could be a fast start as a lot of people try to get into the break. Hopefully it will go away fairly quickly so that not too many of the wounded get dropped.

 

[cineteq]

At least 9 riders not starting today...****!

The aftermath: Astarloza, Vigano, Danielson, Poels, Erviti, Gutierrez, Txurruka, Dupont, Freire, Wynants, Hesjedal & Hunter = 12 abandons

 

[Frosty]

Group of 19 ahead including 3 Astana with VINO one of them