2012 Tour de France: Stage 8: Belfort → Porrentruy (157.5km)

[Geraint Too Fast]

An obvious stage for a breakaway.

Climbs
Km 20.0 - Côte de Bondeval - 4.4 km climb to 3.9 % - Category 4
Km 32.0 - Côte du Passage de la Douleur - 3.8 km climb to 6.4 % - Category 3
Km 50.0 - Côte de Maison-Rouge - 7.9 km climb to 5 % - Category 2
Km 73.0 - Côte de Saignelégier - 7.8 km climb to 6.1 % - Category 2
Km 97.0 - Côte de Saulcy - 4.6 km climb to 8.6 % - Category 2
Km 130.5 - Côte de la Caquerelle (834 m) - 4.3 km climb to 7.6 % - Category 2
Km 141.5 - Col de la Croix (789 m) - 3.7 km climb to 9.2 % - Category 1

Plenty of mountain points available here, so expect to see riders with aspirations of wearing the polka dot jersey getting involved.

Likely protagonists - Hoogerland, Moncoutie, Chavanel, Casar, Vinokourov, Albasini, Roy, CA.Sorensen, LL.Sanchez, Voeckler... + riders from teams who's GC ambitions are over (Garmin, Vacansoleil, etc.)

Will the GC guys take the day off? Or will some teams try to put Sky/Wiggins under pressure before the TT?

 

[will10]

Hoogerland to win from the break. I expect Sky to give the jersey away, after being very selective about who they let join the group.

 

[Fetisoff]

Well, hoping for Rabo/Europcar to try and put pressure on the Sky train to soften them up a bit.

Also expecting Morkov to attack early to try and regain his Polka-dot jersey.

 

[Chap01]

This is going to be an interesting stage, who can be in the top 10? Are the favorites going to attack or they are going to wait until the mountain stages to do it?

 

[LaFleur]

I feel that we could have to wait quite a while tomorrow to see a break of the day being formed. There are alot of good riders with a loss over 3mins who could potentially go and win the tour shall they get into the yellow tomorrow after a breakaway win...

 

[Fetisoff]

This is going to be an interesting stage, who can be in the top 10? Are the favorites going to attack or they are going to wait until the mountain stages to do it?

Well depends which favourites you are talking about.

Favourites that are still in this race will not waste energy on (most likely) futile attacks on a stage like this. Some of the pre-race favourites who have lost significant time, and might have recovered enough from crashes (or did not crash, and lost time for other reasons - is. JVDB2) might actually try something.

BTW, I just don't see a Sagan/Nibbles/Evans attack on the downhill here, too far out, to important of a stage the next day

 

[Mshengu]

I see a possible GC battle here. The Col de la Croix is reasonably steep and about 4 km thats enough to put time on someone and decend like crazy on the other side. CADEL comes to mind, he has become fairly aggressive off late.

 

[Panda Claws]

I really hope VDB, Nibali and Evans will work together here to put time into Sky.

 

[jsem94]

I have Casar in the gr8 GT game, but who knows. Obvious breakaway win though.

 

[roundabout]

I see a possible GC battle here. The Col de la Croix is reasonably steep and about 4 km thats enough to put time on someone and decend like crazy on the other side. CADEL comes to mind, he has become fairly aggressive off late.

Froome will do the col de la Croix at 40 kmh.

It's a good stage for people 5 or so minutes back to try to gain back time. Hopefully it will be more interesting than Hoogerlands, Voecklers, Albasinis, Paulinhos etc in the break

 

[mwallack3]

Expect to see Chavanel, Casar, Vino, Roy, Voeckler all veying for the stage win. Daniel Martin breakaway victory on the final descent. No top GC changes.

 

[Magnus]

Also expecting Morkov to attack early to try and regain his Polka-dot jersey.

I seriously doubt this. I do however think that CAS will try to hit the break.

 

[Frosty]

Might be one where people send team-mates to the front to put the power on and see if they can put anyone in trouble on the climbs. The team-mates will have a TT the next day followed by the rest day = two effective rest days for them, so they can put a big shift in. Dont think it will make that much difference though

 

[Frosty]

Moncoutie might be one for this stage and the KoM points but maybe Taaramae's performance today might put protecting him higher up the agenda. They have di Gregorio who can climb well too but maybe Taaramae might be the priority now.

 

[Fetisoff]

Might be one where people send team-mates to the front to put the power on and see if they can put anyone in trouble on the climbs. The team-mates will have a TT the next day followed by the rest day = two effective rest days for them, so they can put a big shift in. Dont think it will make that much difference though

Well, the question is - who's got the teammates who can actually do anything.
Euskaltel's, Rabo's and Katusha's, Europcar's domestiques are all hurting.
Van Garderen? Moncoutie? Basso?

 

[roundabout]

The 7 dwarves of radioshack

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I don't expect much in terms of GC action tomorrow... with 40k ITT the next day. Maybe some guys who've lost too much time to ride for GC.

 

[Lance Armstrong]

Sagan from a breakaway.

Someone had to say that.

 

[Pentacycle]

Sagan from a breakaway.

Someone had to say that.

Greenedge won't let him do that, if he wins there's a zero chance of Goss winning the green jersey. It's like with Gilbert last year, he couldn't get into any breaks cos HTC brought him back for points jersey purposes.

For tomorrow I predict Fedrigo, Kiryienka and Hoogerland in the break, and Chavanel to attack on the last climb.

 

[Fetisoff]

Greenedge won't let him do that, if he wins there's a zero chance of Goss winning the green jersey. It's like with Gilbert last year, he couldn't get into any breaks cos HTC brought him back for points jersey purposes.

This.

If Sagan goes into the break, Greenedge is going to make Sky's life easier by doing all the chasing

 

[Fight.The.Power]

I think this could actually be a chance to put some time into sky. The sky train is a measured tactic over the last climb, turning up the pace only towards the end. Multiple attacks on the last 3 climbs could really upset their rhythm.

 

[Lance Armstrong]

This.

If Sagan goes into the break, Greenedge is going to make Sky's life easier by doing all the chasing

Not with Albasini being in the same break

Ideal chance for him. Breakaway win is obvious and stage ends in Switzerland.

 

[roundabout]

Not with Albasini being in the same break

Albasini can produce some beastly rides, but in this Tour I wouldn't be feeling that confident about his chances in a group with Sagan.

 

[will10]

I think this could actually be a chance to put some time into sky. The sky train is a measured tactic over the last climb, turning up the pace only towards the end. Multiple attacks on the last 3 climbs could really upset their rhythm.

Keep dreaming. No-one who matters on GC is gonna attack before the last climb, if then.

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Keep dreaming. No-one who matters on GC is gonna attack before the last climb, if then.

Agreed that we won't see Evans attack - but so many GC contenders have lost so much time that they have got to try something - anything ?