2013 Milan-San Remo, 17 March (298km)

[Panda Claws]

Sagan could still lose even from a small group (see 2011 where Goss was in a similair position and Gilbert almost managed to succesfully power away, but was brought back -for no reason- by Pozzato).

 

[pastronef]

bad weather and rain all day is the forecast for Sunday
even snow on the Turchino pass

see here Campo Ligure (the first feed zone)

http://www.ilmeteo.it/meteo/Campo Ligure

 

[qwerty16]

We have been quite lucky the last couple of years, with only 2 bunch sprints in the last 5 editions. Hopefully this trend will continue, this year is a pretty good chance with no sprinter really in fantastic shape.

Very much to do with the addition of Le Manie.

 

[trevim]

Although Sagan is the favourite, I'll be cheering for Hushovd (I like him and he hasn't win a monument yet) and Boonen (such a shame if he retires without this one).

 

[Jancouver]

Snow? In that case Stybar FTW

Seriously now.

1. Rambo
2. Pippo
3. Spartacus

 

[RHRH19861986]

Seriously now.

1. Rambo

Niko Eeckhout?

 

[hfer07]

Winner:

Pudium 1

Pudium 2

 

[virenque216]

http://www.ilmeteo.it/meteo/Sanremo

weather update looks still very bad north easterly strong winds and a lot of rain in san remo,
temperature extremely low with possibilities of snow early, I wonder who will race better in rain, maybe shark can do some good stuff on the descent of poggio or even cypressa who knows

http://www.ilmeteo.it/meteo/Alessandria

 

[Dazed and Confused]

http://www.ilmeteo.it/meteo/Sanremo

weather update looks still very bad north easterly strong winds and a lot of rain in san remo,
temperature extremely low with possibilities of snow early, I wonder who will race better in rain, maybe shark can do some good stuff on the descent of poggio or even cypressa who knows

http://www.ilmeteo.it/meteo/Alessandria

Good descenders are usually capable of going on wet roads as well, but the conditions will just add to the unpredictability of the winner imo. Crashes etc.

I like rainy MSRs, lets just hope the cold doesn't have too much of an impact.

 

[maltiv]

Apparently Sky are coming straight from their altitude camp on Friday. That means they'll only have 1 day in the low-land before M-SR!

That basically contradicts every study about altitude training, which suggests that you should be low for quite some time before a race...

 

[theyoungest]

Apparently Sky are coming straight from their altitude camp on Friday. That means they'll only have 1 day in the low-land before M-SR!

That basically contradicts every study about altitude training, which suggests that you should be low for quite some time before a race...

Yeah, I thought the second day after returning from altitude is usually the worst one, but I could be wrong.

 

[maltiv]

Yeah, I thought the second day after returning from altitude is usually the worst one, but I could be wrong.

What a great scientific approach - do the exact opposite of what science suggests

 

[Swabian Lass]

Interesting I wonder if that means that Sky don't have high expectations.

Sagan is the runaway favourite, but I wonder...all the teams will be working to get him back. I think that there's a high possibility that he'll try to escape on the Poggio and be brought back. It will then depend on his legs at the end and who's there with him.

I agree that OPQS will want to do something, but I really, really can't see Cav pulling it off. I'm increasingly of the opinion that 09 was a fluke when circumstances were just right for him. Don't think it will happen again. On the other hand Boonen doesn't look quite there yet. Unless he's sandbagging of course. I guess that's possible.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Interesting I wonder if that means that Sky don't have high expectations.

Sagan is the runaway favourite, but I wonder...all the teams will be working to get him back. I think that there's a high possibility that he'll try to escape on the Poggio and be brought back. It will then depend on his legs at the end and who's there with him.

I agree that OPQS will want to do something, but I really, really can't see Cav pulling it off. I'm increasingly of the opinion that 09 was a fluke when circumstances were just right for him. Don't think it will happen again. On the other hand Boonen doesn't look quite there yet. Unless he's sandbagging of course. I guess that's possible.

If Sagan attacks on the Poggio and is brought back, it means that the pace is way too high for the sprinters to get over Poggio, which in turn means that Sagan will just win the reduced bunch sprint.

 

[King Boonen]

If Sagan attacks on the Poggio and is brought back, it means that the pace is way too high for the sprinters to get over Poggio, which in turn means that Sagan will just win the reduced bunch sprint.

If there's a lot of people dragging I reckon Goss and maybe even Greipel could make it over the Poggio if an attack is brought back.

 

[Bumeington]

Apparently Sky are coming straight from their altitude camp on Friday. That means they'll only have 1 day in the low-land before M-SR!

That basically contradicts every study about altitude training, which suggests that you should be low for quite some time before a race...

Surely all these studies are based on live high, train low, which is not what sky are doing. So you could say they've ignored science twice, or you could say it's not really an altitude camp at all and go with sky's line on control over the specific training efforts they need to make

 

[Lanark]

If there's a lot of people dragging I reckon Goss and maybe even Greipel could make it over the Poggio if an attack is brought back.

Greipel is pretty useless in Milano Sanremo. I'd expect guys like Boonen or Hushovd to handle the Poggio better, or even guys like Haussler, Ciolek or Boasson Hagen.

 

[will10]

In fact, San Remo could be the 100% perfect race for Sagan. Hills in the finale, tricky descents, tricky roads on the last kms from Poggio into San Remo, that all suits him perfectly. Plus, he can manage very long distances, and will be even better in that in the next few years.

San Remo is always somehow a surprise package, everything can happen; best indication is that Boonen never won it, until now.

It is tailor-made for Sagan. But he didn't win it last year. Cancellara is spot on - it's a lottery, you have to be strong but you have to be lucky, too. Weather will play a big part in this edition also.

 

[will10]

Apparently Sky are coming straight from their altitude camp on Friday. That means they'll only have 1 day in the low-land before M-SR!

That basically contradicts every study about altitude training, which suggests that you should be low for quite some time before a race...

"every" study? are you sure? THLL, TLLH, THLH for a start.

 

[maltiv]

"every" study? are you sure? THLL, TLLH, THLH for a start.

I'm not sure, but I've never heard of a study suggesting that you should train at altitude 1 day before a competition in the low-land.

 

[King Boonen]

Greipel is pretty useless in Milano Sanremo. I'd expect guys like Boonen or Hushovd to handle the Poggio better, or even guys like Haussler, Ciolek or Boasson Hagen.

I'd include them but I was thinking of sprinters you'd back against Sagan. I think with the ones you've listed, I'd back Sagan.

I think Greipel might surprise...

 

[Pricey_sky]

Sagan will win this surely unless Cav can stay with him to the line.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I'm not sure, but I've never heard of a study suggesting that you should train at altitude 1 day before a competition in the low-land.

well, all that stuff doesn't matter anyway. Sky will be very strong. Could have two riders in the finale.

Who will set the pace for Sky at the bottom of Poggio? Stannard?

 

[PCutter]

I'm not sure, but I've never heard of a study suggesting that you should train at altitude 1 day before a competition in the low-land.

My understanding is that the latest thinking is you either come down one day before or you come down well before like they did historically and that the coming down one day before theory was adopted quite widely for the World Cup in South Africa.

 

[theyoungest]

I'm not sure, but I've never heard of a study suggesting that you should train at altitude 1 day before a competition in the low-land.

At least it didn't work for Gesink in the Tour de Suisse last year. Returned from altitude on Friday, and then the mountain stage on Sunday was a disaster.