2013 Milan-San Remo, 17 March (298km)

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Old School

Old School

Mar 12, 2010
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OK, I see all the discussion...but who are the serious dark horses? Like last year, Canc was supposedly unbeatable right? Sagan is a beast, but, he can be beaten like anyone else.

You never know....

Haussler?

I'm sure the list of "You never knows" can surprise.:D
 
taiwan

taiwan

Aug 18, 2009
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Old School said:
OK, I see all the discussion...but who are the serious dark horses? Like last year, Canc was supposedly unbeatable right? Sagan is a beast, but, he can be beaten like anyone else.

You never know....

Haussler?

I'm sure the list of "You never knows" can surprise.:D
Click to expand...

Ponzi seems good at the moment.

Petacchi has not been mentioned. Don't think anyone called Freire 2 years ago.

Movistar have 3 guys you could see winning form the right selection - Rojas, Ventoso, Visconti.

I'm not all that up on people's health/form atm though.
 
Cancellator

Cancellator

Mar 4, 2012
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Old School said:
OK, I see all the discussion...but who are the serious dark horses? Like last year, Canc was supposedly unbeatable right? Sagan is a beast, but, he can be beaten like anyone else.

You never know....

Haussler?

I'm sure the list of "You never knows" can surprise.:D
Click to expand...

I doubt anyone considered Cancellara unbeatable in last year's MSR... Especially taking into account what had happened in 2011.

I think he won't do a repeat of the last two editions, he won't drag anyone to the finish. But it's also unlikely that he'll win though. Same useless team as well...

Everyone will be marking Sagan, but I guess that doesn't really bother him since he can outsprint pretty much anyone that can make it over the Poggio. He can still lose though, maybe by missing out on a winning break at the end, and of course we have mechanicals, crashes etc.

It will be a good race, the outcome is in doubt even if it's a bunch sprint (I hope it won't get to that, though).
 
Old School

Old School

Mar 12, 2010
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Cancellator said:
I doubt anyone considered Cancellara unbeatable in last year's MSR... Especially taking into account what had happened in 2011.

I think he won't do a repeat of the last two editions, he won't drag anyone to the finish. But it's also unlikely that he'll win though. Same useless team as well...

Everyone will be marking Sagan, but I guess that doesn't really bother him since he can outsprint pretty much anyone that can make it over the Poggio. He can still lose though, maybe by missing out on a winning break at the end, and of course we have mechanicals, crashes etc.

It will be a good race, the outcome is in doubt even if it's a bunch sprint (I hope it won't get to that, though).
Click to expand...

Having just reviewed the tape of Stage 3 of the T/A...horrible weather...Sagan coming off of Greipel's wheel...staying ahead of Cav, Sagan does look seriously beastly....I just can't get brain to say, "He's got this in the bag."....

I dunno...I just want to see the unexpected...though I really enjoy seeing this young Giant keep doing what he's doing....Sagan. I'm a fan no doubt.
 
S

Swede1

Jun 7, 2011
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Panda Claws said:
*****
Peter Sagan

****

***
Cavendish, Goss

**
Cancellara, Greipel, Gilbert, Pozzato, Moser, Hushovd

*
Bennati, Roelandts, Boeckmans, Santambrogio, Nibali, Boasson Hagen (?), Van Avermaet, ...
Click to expand...

I think I would move Nibbles up to at least 3 star along with Canc. And maybe move cavendish down a bit I doubt the speed is going to be very much lower than last year on the climbs. Liqui, Astana, and Radioshack should all be pushing the speed on the climbs to try to drop the pure sprinters.
 
G

gruppeto993

Jan 24, 2013
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Cancellara just said in a CN interview that he is not pulling anyone specially sagan to the finish. Im guessing that he s going to attack on the flat then.
 
Panda Claws

Panda Claws

Aug 29, 2011
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Swede1 said:
I think I would move Nibbles up to at least 3 star along with Canc. And maybe move cavendish down a bit I doubt the speed is going to be very much lower than last year on the climbs. Liqui, Astana, and Radioshack should all be pushing the speed on the climbs to try to drop the pure sprinters.
Click to expand...

I'd give Nibali a greater chance than Cavendish on podiuming, but I can't see the Italian actually win it.
 
will10

will10

Dec 27, 2010
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Dazed and Confused said:
agree, and they are starting to understand this. Not just for this edition but in general. Nibali is not a placement rider, winning is the only deal. Same with Voeckler etc. The idea of a climber going on Poggio is pointless.
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Riders attack on the Cipressa every year. It doesn't come off. In 2008 the Bettini group of 5 were working well together, and had 33(!) seconds at the top of the Cipressa. They were caught before the Poggio even started.
 
HiCadence

HiCadence

BANNED
Jul 23, 2011
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gruppeto993 said:
Cancellara just said in a CN interview that he is not pulling anyone specially sagan to the finish. Im guessing that he s going to attack on the flat then.
Click to expand...

Would like to see this guy win it.
 
tomorrow

tomorrow

Mar 17, 2012
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it definately sagan's race to loose, but in sports like cycling it's always very difficult to win something if you're such big favourite as he is. Even more in on day races. I think Moser attacking on cipresa or on poggio very soon would be good defensive strategy for cannondale. I can't wait for the race to begin.
 
Cancellator

Cancellator

Mar 4, 2012
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gruppeto993 said:
Cancellara just said in a CN interview that he is not pulling anyone specially sagan to the finish. Im guessing that he s going to attack on the flat then.
Click to expand...

But wouldn't it be even easier for everyone to sit on his wheel if he does that?

Don't get me wrong, I would love it if he won, but I just can't see a valid tactic for him, especially since it's very likely he'll have no help in the final kms.
 
spalco

spalco

Feb 1, 2011
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^^
Cancellara isn't a horrible sprinter. If he's in the right escape group, waiting longer to attack might give him a chance.

It's just, that right now it's very difficult to imagine a breakaway that includes Cancellara but not Sagan. Despite his difficulties the last two years, nobody's going to ignore him.
 
il_fiammingo

il_fiammingo

Mar 19, 2009
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Looking past the usual suspects, Ponzi is my pick.
Consistent over the last weeks, easily survives a hill and fast at the finish. Sounds like a great backup if plan "Nibali" fails.
 
G

gruppeto993

Jan 24, 2013
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spalco said:
^^
Cancellara isn't a horrible sprinter. If he's in the right escape group, waiting longer to attack might give him a chance.

It's just, that right now it's very difficult to imagine a breakaway that includes Cancellara but not Sagan. Despite his difficulties the last two years, nobody's going to ignore him.
Click to expand...

What if cancellara decides to attack on the flat before the poggio?? he needs a team mate in an early breakaway to help him out a little on the poggio. I doubt the likes of sagan will follow him in an early attack because the other teams will try and bring him back. Do you think he can make it with this kind of attack? Everyone will try and bring him back but we know that he can stay away with a peleton chasing behind him.
 
HiCadence

HiCadence

BANNED
Jul 23, 2011
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gruppeto993 said:
What if cancellara decides to attack on the flat before the poggio?? he needs a team mate in an early breakaway to help him out a little on the poggio. I doubt the likes of sagan will follow him in an early attack because the other teams will try and bring him back. Do you think he can make it with this kind of attack? Everyone will try and bring him back but we know that he can stay away with a peleton chasing behind him.
Click to expand...

I was thinking the exact same thing since he has nothing to lose as people like Sagan will wheelsuck to the line if he tries a late attack like last year.
 
1

18-Valve. (pithy)

May 4, 2011
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spalco said:
^^
Cancellara isn't a horrible sprinter. If he's in the right escape group, waiting longer to attack might give him a chance.
Click to expand...

They'd just sit on his wheel, especially if he's faster than them. If he wins it will be solo, but for that to happen he'll need an insane amount of luck. I can't see it happening with teams like OPQS and Cannondale. Luigi's form isn't spectacular, either.
 
spalco

spalco

Feb 1, 2011
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18-Valve. (pithy) said:
They'd just sit on his wheel, especially if he's faster than them. If he wins it will be solo, but for that to happen he'll need an insane amount of luck. I can't see it happening with teams like OPQS and Cannondale. Luigi's form isn't spectacular, either.
Click to expand...

I meant that in this scenario he doesn't provide a wheel to suck for anyone, but sits back and then makes one big power attack in the last k or maybe last 500m even. Of course that wouldn't work with Sagan though.
 
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