2013 Paris Nice

[jaylew]

Neither of them is a natural climber, but Porte is built like one. Van Garderen is more like an (improved) Luis Leon.

Did you switch those? Seems the opposite to me. Porte is stockier and TJ tall and skinny.

 

[Kokoso]

Is it possible that leaders whose main goal is TdF are here in worse shape than likes of Quintana and otherd, who probably do not have GT ambitions this year?

 

[Pentacycle]

Did you switch those? Seems the opposite to me. Porte is stockier and TJ tall and skinny.

Look at their weights: Porte is 63 kgs and TJVG weighs 72, which is quite a lot for a climber.

 

[jaylew]

For me it's TJVG, Quintana, Talansky, Westra, Gesink, Porte, Costa in the top tier

Menchov, Monfort, Fuglsang, Roche, Peraud, Spilak, Scarponi, Coppel, De Gendt in the 2nd

No faith in Basso

 

[trevim]

Nah, Luis Leon Sanchez is a true winner. Van Garderen hasn't shown that yet.

 

[jaylew]

Look at their weights: Porte is 63 kgs and TJVG weighs 72, which is quite a lot for a climber.

I usually see TJ listed at 67-69kgs and he's much taller than Porte. 1.85 to 1.72 (6'1" to 5'8" - makes more sense to me like this)

 

[Pentacycle]

I usually see TJ listed at 67-69kgs and he's much taller than Porte. 1.85 to 1.72 (6'1" to 5'8" - makes more sense to me like this)

TJ's weight seems to have changed then, according to his team he's 69, although I've seem him being listed as 72 on other web pages. In that case they're somewhat similarly built. But results-wise I'd rate Porte higher, the way he won on Malhao last year was pretty impressive. I haven't seen TJ climb like that yet, he's always looking very uncomfortable when climbing, and he rarely attacks.

 

[theyoungest]

That's why I compare him to LLS, their climbing styles are similar. Always seated, no real acceleration. TT power translated to a climb. Porte is different.

 

[Ferminal]

How many times did Porte drop him last year... Malhao (probably Wiggins ), Mende?, Joux Plane, PdBF.

 

[Pentacycle]

How many times did Porte drop him last year... Malhao (probably Wiggins ), Mende?, Joux Plane, PdBF.

For me it's hard to imagine TJ riding the same way as Porte did in the Tour last year. Such an impressive domestique work requires more climbing talent than anything we've seen from the American.

 

[Sasquatch]

You can't look past Howard, Matthews or Viviani for this prologue. Maybe Kittel as an outsider.

Last time there was a time trial under 3km that I can remember was Tour of Romandie 2 years ago. Castroviejo won ahead of Phinney and Howard.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

This really should be a walk in the park for Gesink.

I wouldn't be calling it a walk in the park for him if Contador and Froome were riding.

Gesink is obviously in shape and hasn't had an injury for a while, so as long as he gets spared of bad luck during the race he should finish on the podium. This is a big goal for him during this part of the season. Anything but a podium would be a big disappointment.

I see what you did there.

Seriously, though, Gesink will probably lose out to guys with better uphill TT abilities. A podium can't be ruled out due to echelons, other riders crashing and whatnot, but it's by no means the most likely outcome.

 

[Pentacycle]

I see what you did there.

Seriously, though, Gesink will probably lose out to guys with better uphill TT abilities. A podium can't be ruled out due to echelons, other riders crashing and whatnot, but it's by no means the most likely outcome.

No way Gesink will be spared of bad luck. How many times have people said he'd run out of bad luck? And still he crashes time after time, just when he really shouldn't, it's a curse that won't let him go...

De Gendt or Monfort have a good shot and they're among the top favourites. They're both good in echelons, and I can't remember them crashing anywhere during their career. Their respective ITT's are very good, they're possible top 10 finishers in the prologue as well. Gesink will probably already lose a lot there.

 

[Ruudz0r]

No way Gesink will be spared of bad luck. How many times have people said he'd run out of bad luck? And still he crashes time after time, just when he really shouldn't, it's a curse that won't let him go...

De Gendt or Monfort have a good shot and they're among the top favourites. They're both good in echelons, and I can't remember them crashing anywhere during their career. Their respective ITT's are very good, they're possible top 10 finishers in the prologue as well. Gesink will probably already lose a lot there.

What makes you think De Gendt is a good echolon rider? Just because he is from Belgium? I think he is a pretty bad echolon rider, he hates riding in the peleton and sits in the back a lot.

 

[Pentacycle]

What makes you think De Gendt is a good echolon rider? Just because he is from Belgium? I think he is a pretty bad echolon rider, he hates riding in the peleton and sits in the back a lot.

Just as some other forum member is calling this a walk in the park for Gesink, I can call De Gendt a good echelon rider. I know he doesn't go well in the front of the peloton, but I don't trust Gesink there either.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Also Gesink is not bad at riding echelons. And he doesn't crash a lot in 1-week stage races.

I just fear the uphill ITT for him, if it's still as bad as last year

 

[Miburo]

Also Gesink is not bad at riding echelons. And he doesn't crash a lot in 1-week stage races.

I just fear the uphill ITT for him, if it's still as bad as last year

That's a real relief

How is with his downhill btw. Paris-nice '08 he really sucked at it.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

That's a real relief

How is with his downhill btw. Paris-nice '08 he really sucked at it.

If it's anything like last year it's good. He keeps returning in the downhill after getting dropped uphill now

 

[staubsauger]

Rob Gesink just seems to be more and more the Dutch Levi Leipheimer.

Although Levi was better in time trailing and in 2008 at the Vuelta he suddenly even was able to attack.

But that's why Gesink always is getting just 3-5th anywhere.

On paper this Parijs - Nice should be a great chance for him to teach his citizens wrong. He did outperform much overrated Van Garderen last year at Mount Baldy in any way. But there are always moment where Gesink is able to lose it.

To me - if he's on form - De Gendt is much more a favorite. He should do well on Col de Eze as well as in he other stages. But he's also not very explosive at all.

Fuglsang should be able to own this on paper. He's a good time trailer. And he's also kind of explosive. He was an upcoming hilly classics rider 3 years ago and he was up there at the Tour de Suisse in 2011. Based on that he should be able to outperform all other guys without any problem on this course. The thing is. We don't have any indicator that Fuglsang is able to reach this level next week. Maybe his pre-interview wasn't serious and he's just overmodest. But it's also possible that his form isn't any good and he will be 7th or so in the end.

You should always have Voeckler in mind in a constellation like this. Because otherwise he will jump away in a moment where the other aren' concentrated and mock his contenders by winning this bike race. Maybe he's just a one trick pony. But hell he's a very good one.

Quintana no I don't see him winning here. It's too early in the season and the course isn't really made for a pure climber.

Westra in last years form actually could win this. But I have my doubts that he will be able to perform that well in a big race again anytime in his career.

Van Garderen could strike this if he's just riding decent and consistent on this parcours. If there's nobody to stand out either in the hills nor in the mtg that could be enough to write P-N on his name.

I also mention Big Phil here, because I still don't know what are his plans and why he's attempting here. It's not much likely but this race could be an indicator whether he's trying to do a Di Luca this year. So I'm just mentioning him here, because if the unlikely case will become reality I could say "Well, I told ya"

 

[manafana]

looking forward to this due to the lack of the big names means we should see a much more open race.

 

[jaylew]

Nah, Luis Leon Sanchez is a true winner. Van Garderen hasn't shown that yet.

Totally agree. If there's one thing you can say about LuLu, it's that - he knows how to win races despite not really having an "ace in the hole"

looking forward to this due to the lack of the big names means we should see a much more open race.

Yeah, despite the parcours not being quite as nice as TA, I'm almost looking forward to this one more because there are so many contenders.

 

[movingtarget]

Totally agree. If there's one thing you can say about LuLu, it's that - he knows how to win races despite not really having an "ace in the hole"



Yeah, despite the parcours not being quite as nice as TA, I'm almost looking forward to this one more because there are so many contenders.

I thought his well timed attacks were his "ace in the hole."

 

[movingtarget]

Rob Gesink just seems to be more and more the Dutch Levi Leipheimer.

Although Levi was better in time trailing and in 2008 at the Vuelta he suddenly even was able to attack.

But that's why Gesink always is getting just 3-5th anywhere.

On paper this Parijs - Nice should be a great chance for him to teach his citizens wrong. He did outperform much overrated Van Garderen last year at Mount Baldy in any way. But there are always moment where Gesink is able to lose it.

To me - if he's on form - De Gendt is much more a favorite. He should do well on Col de Eze as well as in he other stages. But he's also not very explosive at all.

Fuglsang should be able to own this on paper. He's a good time trailer. And he's also kind of explosive. He was an upcoming hilly classics rider 3 years ago and he was up there at the Tour de Suisse in 2011. Based on that he should be able to outperform all other guys without any problem on this course. The thing is. We don't have any indicator that Fuglsang is able to reach this level next week. Maybe his pre-interview wasn't serious and he's just overmodest. But it's also possible that his form isn't any good and he will be 7th or so in the end.

You should always have Voeckler in mind in a constellation like this. Because otherwise he will jump away in a moment where the other aren' concentrated and mock his contenders by winning this bike race. Maybe he's just a one trick pony. But hell he's a very good one.

Quintana no I don't see him winning here. It's too early in the season and the course isn't really made for a pure climber.

Westra in last years form actually could win this. But I have my doubts that he will be able to perform that well in a big race again anytime in his career.

Van Garderen could strike this if he's just riding decent and consistent on this parcours. If there's nobody to stand out either in the hills nor in the mtg that could be enough to write P-N on his name.

I also mention Big Phil here, because I still don't know what are his plans and why he's attempting here. It's not much likely but this race could be an indicator whether he's trying to do a Di Luca this year. So I'm just mentioning him here, because if the unlikely case will become reality I could say "Well, I told ya"

The real problem with Gesink is that he is normally riding wounded due to falls or injuries. His TT riding has improved a lot. His ride in the 2012 Vuelta was a solid one but to do anything this year against the the top three or four riders he has to continue improving and get through a race without major incidents. I'm not sure whether it is his bike handling, poor positioning or just lack of concentration. The bad luck theory seems to be wearing a bit thin. I hope he does well this year and can turn things around. There should be some huge podium battles this year with many riders vying for third place on the podium or even better if the favourites have problems.