2013 Paris Nice

[Libertine Seguros]

The question is: Is Rui Costa better climber than Quintana? I dont remember Rui Costa climbing at Contador or Purito level. Nairo did it in the past Vuelta. In Lagos de Covadonga he was up there instead of attacked twice in the foot of the climb and worked hard for Valverde. In Cuitu Negru he did it again. Even dropping Valverde in the final kilometres of the ascent. Then he crashed and couldnt stay with the favourites in the Bola del Mundo day. But in the stages i have mentioned he had the legs of Contador, Purito or Valverde which is awesome with only 22 years. If this is not enough the 2013 Quintana should be better than the guy of the past season. That's progression. I cant understand why some people put the portuguese guy above Nairo. There is a flat ITT in the route and i havent seen it yet? In which terrain will Rui Costa take time to Quintana?

The question is, does he have to? Luís León Sánchez outclimbed Evans and Samu on this terrain before. It's a tempo grinder's climb, and if it's not raced too aggressively then Costa could easily survive without much time loss on this. Quintana is obviously the better climber, but the Montagne de la Lure stage is pretty much a one-climb stage, the Col d'Èze ITT isn't outside Costa's remit at all and the route doesn't really have anything stupendously hard elsewhere to drop him.

 

[Jason_Mercier]

Of course i think he has to. Lure is 13 kms at 7%. Hard enough for a climber like Nairo to put Rui Costa in distance. And if he cant do it in Lure then in the ITT of Col d'Eze he will make the differences. He did it in 2010 in the ITT of Risoul in the Tour of Porvenir in a similar ascent. He put 40 seconds to one of the best riders for this terrain, Andrew Talansky. Isnt that enough argument?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Of course i think he has to. Lure is 13 kms at 7%. Hard enough for a climber like Nairo to put Rui Costa in distance. And if he cant do it in Lure then in the ITT of Col d'Eze he will make the differences. He did it in 2010 in the ITT of Risoul in the Tour of Porvenir in a similar ascent. He put 40 seconds to one of the best riders for this terrain, Andrew Talansky. Isnt that enough argument?

But Nairo's not trying to put Rui at a distance. They're teammates. If the race is aggressive then sure, it splits to pieces and I'd expect Nairo to finish up further up the road than Rui. But if it isn't, then I wouldn't expect Rui to lose a huge amount of time unless it's Nairo himself that starts hostilities.

As for the TT, Rui is a strong time triallist, good at that kind of gradient and while Quintana has been impressive in the time trials as a U23, that's still a U23 race and this is a WT race.

 

[El Pistolero]

But Nairo's not trying to put Rui at a distance. They're teammates. If the race is aggressive then sure, it splits to pieces and I'd expect Nairo to finish up further up the road than Rui. But if it isn't, then I wouldn't expect Rui to lose a huge amount of time unless it's Nairo himself that starts hostilities.

As for the TT, Rui is a strong time triallist, good at that kind of gradient and while Quintana has been impressive in the time trials as a U23, that's still a U23 race and this is a WT race.

Stijn Devolder disagrees.

 

[Jason_Mercier]

Nairo has already said that he will search his opportunities and do his own race.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Nairo has already said that he will search his opportunities and do his own race.

only chance is MTF TT. Movistar too well organised to do it in any other way.

 

[Jakob747]

Jason I hope you will keep an eye out for Alexis Vuillermoz as well. Good friend and occasionally training-partner of Thibaut Pinot. (They are both from Franche-Comté). I truly belive he can have a solid Paris-Nice.

 

[cineteq]

Nairo has already said that he will search his opportunities and do his own race.

Not so fast buddy.

What is your objective at Paris-Nice?
We'll go day by day. My personal challenge is a top ten, but the team has other options such as Rui Costa. I want to be fairly regular, as always, and if there is a chance to win at some stage, we will try.

http://biciciclismo.com/cas/site/noticias-ficha.asp?id=59783

 

[Jason_Mercier]

Nairo has always been so conservative out of the road. If he says he will search a chance for stage IMO its clear he will try in Lure. I would bet for this.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Nairo has always been so conservative out of the road. If he says he will search a chance for stage IMO its clear he will try in Lure. I would bet for this.

love it if it happens, but there are team radios in play.

 

[Jason_Mercier]

Jason I hope you will keep an eye out for Alexis Vuillermoz as well. Good friend and occasionally training-partner of Thibaut Pinot. (They are both from Franche-Comté). I truly belive he can have a solid Paris-Nice.

I have read some things about this rider in the spanish forum. French champion in juniors category and second in the "Espoirs" World Championship in MTB. Interesting guy to follow.

 

[hayzer114]

Race Predictions??

 

[greenedge]

I honestly feel that Porte, Gesink and Talansky are the favourites here.

I also think Quintana if unleashed will be a real factor and could win. Then again so could Costa but i will cheer for good mountain attacks and i do not know whether Costa can beat the likes of Porte/ Talansky in the Time-Trials.

 

[Jason_Mercier]

I bet for this: Quintana, Porte, Gesink.

 

[maltiv]

perhaps Howard.
How about a rider like Kristoff? Can't find too many ITT results, but maybe he can sprint for 3km?

He was 13th on the 14,5 km ITT in Tour of Denmark last year. Except from that, he has never really done a good TT.

So I doubt he can do well here. His TT position is terrible.

 

[gruppeto993]

Race Predictions??

top 10 for kloeden and menchov

 

[cineteq]

Race Predictions??

Sure, I've reshuffled my initial rating. And Kreuzinger's out.

***** Robert Gesink, Thomas de Gendt, Tejay van Garderen
**** Rui Costa, Lieuwe Westra, Nairo Quintana
*** Jean-Christophe Peraud, Andrew Talansky
** Jerome Coppel, Richie Porte, Thomas Voeckler, Denis Menchov
* Jakob Fuglsang, Andreas Kloden, Ivan Basso

 

[El Pistolero]

This really should be a walk in the park for Gesink.

 

[maltiv]

This really should be a walk in the park for Gesink.

He could lose massive amounts of time in the mountain ITT though, taking into account how much time he usually loses on any given hill in a ITT (but that might be because the Giant TT bike is ridiculously heavy...)

 

[theyoungest]

He could lose massive amounts of time in the mountain ITT though, taking into account how much time he usually loses on any given hill in a ITT (but that might be because the Giant TT bike is ridiculously heavy...)

Indeed, early in his career he only did well on hills in TTs, and not on the flat because his aero position sucked. Now it's the other way around. Maybe he'll opt for a road bike.

 

[cineteq]

He could lose massive amounts of time in the mountain ITT though, taking into account how much time he usually loses on any given hill in a ITT (but that might be because the Giant TT bike is ridiculously heavy...)

First time I hear about the 'heavy bike', but this was with one leg last year, just +0:05 of Tejay.

2012 ToC Stage 5 Results
1 ZABRISKIE, David (GARMIN-BARRACUDA) 35:59
2 VOIGT, Jens (RADIOSHACK-NISSAN) +0:23
3 VAN GARDEREN, Tejay (BMC RACING) +0:34
4 GESINK, Robert (RABOBANK) +0:39
5 TALANSKY, Andrew (GARMIN-BARRACUDA) +0:48

 

[theyoungest]

That was an almost pan flat TT, except for a little bump at the end.

It's better to use the Vuelta TT as an example. He was on par with Froome and Contador on the flat/downhill, and then lost a minute to them on the climb...

 

[Hugo Koblet]

This race should really be Van Garderens. I'm sure he'll want to perform here as well.

 

[cineteq]

That was an almost pan flat TT...

It's better to use the Vuelta TT as an example. He was on par with Froome and Contador on the flat/downhill, and then lost a minute to them on the climb...

Even better, he was recovering from TdF injury.

 

[theyoungest]

Even better, he was recovering from TdF injury.

Yes of course, but it was the same in the year before. Pais Vasco 2011, where he rode himself on the podium, he came through with about the 30th time on the climb. And then he was the fastest of them all on the flat/downhill.

The only really good mostly uphill TT he's done in recent years was in Oman... on a road bike. Their DS Van Houwelingen already asked last year if it was something about their bikes that made them underperform collectively on climbs in TTs.