2013 Speculation (and confirmation) thread - rider schedules and parcours

[The Hitch]

Capechi Movistars leader for the Giro going for a top 10 and also wants a top 10 in MSR which he calls the best of the one day races.


http://www.biciciclismo.com/cas/wai/noticias-ficha.asp?id=57738

Hopefully hell live up to it, but i had been hoping for Quintana or even Valverde (unlikely i know) to give a go.

 

[El Pistolero]

i have to agree with ryo's last 2 posts. quintana might not have been the second best but he was in the group of the second best riders. which is much more then anything pinot has ever shown on a classic.

and gilbert could have definitively contend for the win had he not crashed. after the muro there was still 50k of racing left with only 2 climbs and 1 of those suited gilbert to perfection, so saying he was out of contention for being dropped on the muro, where he didn't even lose that much time, is a bit of a stretch imo.

and quintana could very well win a lbl in the future, he will probably have to do it the same way schleck did in 09 or nibali tried this year but it is possible. hell if not for a super strong astana and iglinsky on what very likely will be the best performance of his career nibali would have done it and it would have been the second time in 4 years some1 won solo all the way from the Roche aux faucons.

Be careful Parrulo, theyoungest might call you a Calimero any time soon now.

And yeah Quintana could very well win LBL in the future, but I can say the same about every promising young rider(that can climb of course). Cycling is unpredictable in that regard. I was actually having some fun with Ryo because I remember he said Lombardia was too hard for Phil last year as well because he only got 8th. He also completely ignored the fact that Phil had already reacted on an attack of Nibali, so only looked at the result. I call that hypocrisy.

And that's even ignoring the obvious: Phil was no longer in top shape and only rode Lombardia to win the WT for himself and the team. It's all in his book.

But my real point is: descending is also very important in Lombardia, so just because someone is slightly less good on the Muro di Sormano doesn't mean he's overall worse at the race than let's say Quintana. And like you said, the final hills suited a rider like Gilbert better than the Muro di Sormano. I like to compare the Sormano to the Koppenberg of the Ronde van Vlaanderen: too far from the finish to decide the winner, but you can definitely lose the race on them(for example Cancellara in '09). However, Gilbert wasn't far back at all and had already caught and dropped everyone on the descent. But whatever, they're allowed to think what ever the hell they want. I'd rather see Phil win LBL, the WC or the Ronde van Vlaanderen anyway.

 

[The Hitch]

Be careful Parrulo, theyoungest might call you a Calimero any time soon now.

And yeah Quintana could very well win LBL in the future, but I can say the same about every promising young rider(that can climb of course). Cycling is unpredictable in that regard. I was actually having some fun with Ryo because I remember he said Lombardia was too hard for Phil last year as well because he only got 8th. He also completely ignored the fact that Phil had already reacted on an attack of Nibali, so only looked at the result. I call that hypocrisy.

And that's even ignoring the obvious: Phil was no longer in top shape and only rode Lombardia to win the WT for himself and the team. It's all in his book.

But my real point is: descending is also very important in Lombardia, so just because someone is slightly less good on the Muro di Sormano doesn't mean he's overall worse at the race than let's say Quintana. And like you said, the final hills suited a rider like Gilbert better than the Muro di Sormano. I like to compare the Sormano to the Koppenberg of the Ronde van Vlaanderen: too far from the finish to decide the winner, but you can definitely lose the race on them(for example Cancellara in '09). However, Gilbert wasn't far back at all and had already caught and dropped everyone on the descent. But whatever, they're allowed to think what ever the hell they want. I'd rather see Phil win LBL, the WC or the Ronde van Vlaanderen anyway.

Didnt Gilbert crash through his own fault? He crashed becasue he was trying to catch up with and then distance the peloton.

Theres a difference between crashing cos the person in front of you did, or because your wheel punctured or because someone threw a bottle on the road, and crashing because you are deliberately using the descent to get an advantage.

Losing because your descending skills were not that great is the same as losing because your climbing was not so great an ability thing. You yourself felt no sympathy for Nibali afterall when Gilbert won in 2010.

 

[El Pistolero]

Didnt Gilbert crash through his own fault? He crashed becasue he was trying to catch up with and then distance the peloton.

Theres a difference between crashing cos the person in front of you did, or because your wheel punctured or because someone threw a bottle on the road, and crashing because you are deliberately using the descent to get an advantage.

Losing because your descending skills were not that great is the same as losing because your climbing was not so great an ability thing. You yourself felt no sympathy for Nibali afterall when Gilbert won in 2010.

I haven't seen Phil fall, so how could I judge? It's true, he could've crashed because he took too many risks. Perhaps he just wanted to do something special that day in his rainbow jersey, who's to say? All I know is that the race is not too hard for him to win.

Though Gilbert's descending skills are definitely great.

If you take more risks you're more likely to crash than someone's who's cautious. If I remember correctly Nibali crashed while sitting on Phil's wheel trying to overtake him. Phil was at the head of the race while he crashed in 2012. Though no footage, so we don't really know what happened. Weather has something to do with it I suppose(same as in 2010).

I'm not really sympathizing for Gilbert here. Jrod deserved to win and he did. Plus I'm not a greedy fan, his WC win was good enough for me.

 

[maltiv]

Sky's lineup for TDU: EBH, Sutton, G, Hayman, Eisel, Rowe, Stannard.

I'm very surprised EBH is going, after Beijing he said that he'd start the 2013 season later since he had as long a season as one can have in 2012 (start in TDU, end in Beijing). I don't know if he's changed his mind or if he's being "forced".

I really think he should have started in Qatar or Oman instead. Not only are they better preparation for the classics, but they'd also bring more opportunities to get victories. In TDU there are lots of Australians who for some reason peak for the TDU (only to get the rest of the season ruined - see Matthews every year) so it's hard for foreigners to do much.

 

[El Pistolero]

Sky's lineup for TDU: EBH, Sutton, G, Hayman, Eisel, Rowe, Stannard.

I'm very surprised EBH is going, after Beijing he said that he'd start the 2013 season later since he had as long a season as one can have in 2012 (start in TDU, end in Beijing). I don't know if he's changed his mind or if he's being "forced".

I really think he should have started in Qatar or Oman instead. Not only are they better preparation for the classics, but they'd also bring more opportunities to get victories. In TDU there are lots of Australians who for some reason peak for the TDU (only to get the rest of the season ruined - see Matthews every year) so it's hard for foreigners to do much.

2011 Tour Down Under:

Gossie in smoking form. Keeps winning in Paris-Nice and finally in the big one: Milan-San Remo.

2012 Tour Down Under:

Gerrans in smoking form. Wins Milan-San Remo.
Greipel wins 3 stages Down Under. Later wins 3 stages in the Tour.

2012 Tour de San Luis:

Boonen wins a stage and keeps on winning races till Paris-Roubaix.
Nibali did a decent time trial there. Wins Tirreno-Adriatico and was great in Milan-San Remo.

Maybe Matthews just isn't a very good cyclist yet?

 

[theyoungest]

Greipel had the same problem for most of his career. Stellar form in Australia, okay but not great the rest of the year.

It's a bit ridiculous to already include Matthews in the list of TDU failings... the guy is 22 years old for crying out loud. This year he crashed hard in the first stage of Tirreno and saw his classics season ruined (but of course maltiv only cares about injuries to mister Boasson Hagen).

 

[maltiv]

2011 Tour Down Under:

Gossie in smoking form. Keeps winning in Paris-Nice and finally in the big one: Milan-San Remo.

2012 Tour Down Under:

Gerrans in smoking form. Wins Milan-San Remo.
Greipel wins 3 stages Down Under. Later wins 3 stages in the Tour.

2012 Tour de San Luis:

Boonen wins a stage and keeps on winning races till Paris-Roubaix.
Nibali did a decent time trial there. Wins Tirreno-Adriatico and was great in Milan-San Remo.

Maybe Matthews just isn't a very good cyclist yet?

Gerrans and Goss both had the same problem: when the next monuments came around, they had no form. Same with Valverde last year, who was out of gas in the ardennes. And Boonen obviously doesn't have to be in top shape to win a sprint stage of San Luis.

Matthews isn't a very good cyclist, no, but he's clearly much better in TDU than in any other race of the season. I'm just saying that the guys who peak for TDU traditionally can't keep the form until the cobbled classics or the ardennes.

 

[El Pistolero]

Gerrans and Goss both had the same problem: when the next monuments came around, they had no form. Same with Valverde last year, who was out of gas in the ardennes. And Boonen obviously doesn't have to be in top shape to win a sprint stage of San Luis.

Matthews isn't a very good cyclist, no, but he's clearly much better in TDU than in any other race of the season. I'm just saying that the guys who peak for TDU traditionally can't keep the form until the cobbled classics or the ardennes.

I'm sure they cared after having won the biggest race in their career.

Besides, Gossie is known as someone who likes to go out. I'm sure he did plenty of that after his Milan-San Remo win. Plus he got sick somewhere before Gent-Wevelgem.

Valverde came back after a 1.5 year suspension, he's not a great example for your point.

Matthews couldn't keep up in the cobbled classics regardless of how he does in the Tour Down Under. He's still young.

 

[Netserk]

http://www.rondevanvlaanderen.be/nl/elite-men/race/track

 

[velosiped]

Sky's lineup for TDU: EBH, Sutton, G, Hayman, Eisel, Rowe, Stannard.

I'm very surprised EBH is going, after Beijing he said that he'd start the 2013 season later since he had as long a season as one can have in 2012 (start in TDU, end in Beijing). I don't know if he's changed his mind or if he's being "forced".

I really think he should have started in Qatar or Oman instead. Not only are they better preparation for the classics, but they'd also bring more opportunities to get victories. In TDU there are lots of Australians who for some reason peak for the TDU (only to get the rest of the season ruined - see Matthews every year) so it's hard for foreigners to do much.

No chance in hell that he can compete with Boonen and Cancellara on the long cobbles this coming spring.
An early form would give him a peak that could help him win races like omloop and M-SR; obtainable victories at this point of his career.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Alberto: San Luis and then the big surprise Tour of Oman

 

[DominicDecoco]

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/2013-tour-of-flanders-route-presented

Disappointing.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

same as last year? that route was great. although maybe too hard

 

[DominicDecoco]

I really didn't find it that great. It missed 'something'.. It wasn't bad, mind you, just don't see the change of the route as an upgrade from the previous route.

 

[maltiv]

No chance in hell that he can compete with Boonen and Cancellara on the long cobbles this coming spring.
An early form would give him a peak that could help him win races like omloop and M-SR; obtainable victories at this point of his career.

Indeed. Actually EBH is going for both TDU and Qatar, which is quite unusual. Seems like Sky thinks he needs a lot of racing to get into shape. I guess they're basing it on the fact that EBH just got better and better throughout 2012 with a lot of racing in his legs. It might work, but it might also just lead to a way too early peak..

Peaking for M-SR wouldn't be such a bad idea though, it's the classic he has by far the greatest chance of winning imo.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

he doesn't stand a chance of winning any classic. by now we can savely say he doesn't have the engine.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

he doesn't stand a chance of winning any classic. by now we can savely say he doesn't have the engine.

atleast not the cobble classics. In the WC it looked like he could be a contender for races like AGR and San Sebastian perhaps

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

atleast not the cobble classics. In the WC it looked like he could be a contender for races like AGR and San Sebastian perhaps

the wc can't be compared to any classic, it's a circuit at the end of a year. classics are way harder on endurance

 

[Froome19]

No chance in hell that he can compete with Boonen and Cancellara on the long cobbles this coming spring.
An early form would give him a peak that could help him win races like omloop and M-SR; obtainable victories at this point of his career.

After watching his immense strength at Plouay and then the World Champs if he can be in form for the Classics (something he has struggled to achieve) then I would not put it past him to mix it with the big boys. Not to say I believe he will do it, but EBH's strength when on form sometimes just astounds me and seems to be a bit reminiscent of Cancellara.

 

[Froome19]

he doesn't stand a chance of winning any classic. by now we can savely say he doesn't have the engine.

Based on what exactly?

When have you seen him truly be on form in the classics in recent years?
All I have seen when it comes to Classic type races is his perfomances at Plouay and the Worlds last year etc. The ardennes are certainly something he should consider this year imo.

 

[Ferminal]

Plouay is not exactly the best indicator, do not see Grega Bole being talked up as an L-B-L contender. Its only relevance to any monument is M-SR.

 

[maltiv]

Based on what exactly?

When have you seen him truly be on form in the classics in recent years?
All I have seen when it comes to Classic type races is his perfomances at Plouay and the Worlds last year etc. The ardennes are certainly something he should consider this year imo.

He wasn't too bad in RVV this year. Was up there on all climbs, but lost a lot of energy after being hindered by the Vansummeren crash, leaving him dangling between two groups. When things got back together he was up there again with the Sagan group. In the sprint for 4th, however, he somehow managed to sprint so badly he was caught by the peloton and finished 19th. Or perhaps he simply didn't care about sprinting for a top 10 position. Either way, it was a decent performance for a 24 y.o, particularly considering how much energy he lost due to the crash.

 

[Froome19]

Agreed and I do not think I would really use it as a definitive indicator but the manner of his victory suggested he was streets ahead of the field. Take Cancellara's win at Strade Bianche no one would suggest that SB can be compared to Flanders or Roubaix but nevertheless his dominance made a win in one of those two seem rather probable.

 

[Froome19]

He wasn't too bad in RVV this year. Was up there on all climbs, but lost a lot of energy after being hindered by the Vansummeren crash, leaving him dangling between two groups. When things got back together he was up there again with the Sagan group. In the sprint for 4th, however, he somehow managed to sprint so badly he was caught by the peloton and finished 19th. Or perhaps he simply didn't care about sprinting for a top 10 position. Either way, it was a decent performance for a 24 y.o, particularly considering how much energy he lost due to the crash.

Indeed but I think it was clear he was not at his best in the spring. His performance at MSR was just plain dour for starters..

Edit: Btw I was saying that there is no evidence to say that EBH can not dominate the classics from his previous performances, so we cant use them to discount them in the future.