SafeBet said:Nibali has proven to be a very good ITTer on shorter courses, probably better than the post-ban Alberto and knows this race very well.
It might be closer than you think.
Don't know about Froome. Has he ever performed at a reasonable level in march?
what short tts has Alberto ridden post-ban.... 1 in Eneco tour and one in San Luis and both were much longer than 9 km. The best distance for Alberto in a tt is less than 10 km, so I expect him to do well.