2013 Tirreno - Adriatico

[theyoungest]

10-15 seconds

Same course last year:

1. [SUI] CANCELLARA Fabian RNT 10'36" 40
2. [ITA] BENNATI Daniele RNT 12" 25
3. [AUS] MEYER Cameron OGE 16" 15
4. [CAN] TUFT Svein OGE 16" 10
5. [ITA] BOARO Manuele STB 16" 5
6. [NZL] ROULSTON Hayden RNT 17" 3
7. [GBR] STANNARD Ian SKY 18" 2
8. [SVK] VELITS Peter OPQ 20" 1
9. [ITA] NIBALI Vincenzo LIQ 20" 0
10. [ITA] PINOTTI Marco BMC 21" 0

Contador is much better than him on long TTs, but on a short TT like this, I'm not so sure.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Same course last year:

1. [SUI] CANCELLARA Fabian RNT 10'36" 40
2. [ITA] BENNATI Daniele RNT 12" 25
3. [AUS] MEYER Cameron OGE 16" 15
4. [CAN] TUFT Svein OGE 16" 10
5. [ITA] BOARO Manuele STB 16" 5
6. [NZL] ROULSTON Hayden RNT 17" 3
7. [GBR] STANNARD Ian SKY 18" 2
8. [SVK] VELITS Peter OPQ 20" 1
9. [ITA] NIBALI Vincenzo LIQ 20" 0
10. [ITA] PINOTTI Marco BMC 21" 0

Contador is much better than him on long TTs, but on a short TT like this, I'm not so sure.

okay maybe you're right. But Alberto will still win some seconds, maybe 5-6. Although I think Alberto in top form could finish +10" to Cancellara.

 

[Jelantik]

Why? What's your theory on what jens meant when he kept saying the Bilharzia is a great thing for froome?

I was just wondering about the same thing. If he can go from no where to world class in a short amount of time.. maybe the bilharzia wasn't so bad? (oh geez.. my bad. I shouldn't wish an illness is a good thing).. moving along.. moving along.. just some side comments.

 

[jens_attacks]

i just meant bilharzia is an act of god. nothing clinical from me, don't put words in my mouth please

 

[Miburo]

Same course last year:

1. [SUI] CANCELLARA Fabian RNT 10'36" 40
2. [ITA] BENNATI Daniele RNT 12" 25
3. [AUS] MEYER Cameron OGE 16" 15
4. [CAN] TUFT Svein OGE 16" 10
5. [ITA] BOARO Manuele STB 16" 5
6. [NZL] ROULSTON Hayden RNT 17" 3
7. [GBR] STANNARD Ian SKY 18" 2
8. [SVK] VELITS Peter OPQ 20" 1
9. [ITA] NIBALI Vincenzo LIQ 20" 0
10. [ITA] PINOTTI Marco BMC 21" 0

Contador is much better than him on long TTs, but on a short TT like this, I'm not so sure.

Contador would have been second.

His speciality in ITT is 25-30 km going up and down. Giro '08 ITT is the best example which he btw would have won if it didn't rain. And that's not even Contador at '09 ITT level. ITT of the tour de basque suit him perfect.

The second best ITT for Contador are ITT of 10 km, he always does great at them.

The last 2 years though we haven't seen Contador do any of these kind.

Maybe that's why people forget how good he is at it.

DLL'09: 2nd
Tour'09: 2nd
paris-nice'09: 1st, crushed wiggins and martin

Now his worse year:

DLL'10: 1st
Tour'10: 6th (excluding armstrong's ban)
paris-nice '10: 4th (same time with levi btw)

How can you even think that Nibali might be equal? It's beyond me

Edit: these are the ITT of less than 10 km I remember from the last 4 years. I don't think i've left any out.

 

[LaFlorecita]

@Miburo
Apparently he is now much worse but I don't see how we can conclude that

 

[SafeBet]

Anyway we're not debating into how good Contador was at '09, don't change the subject.

Aren't we?
From my original post:

Nibali has proven to be a very good ITTer on shorter courses, probably better than the post-ban Alberto and knows this race very well.
It might be closer than you think.

I never onced said Nibali is a better TTer than Alberto overall.
I'm saying on this particular course he can be close or slightly better. For a variety of reasons. Nibali is very familiar with this ITT, has done well in the past (check result posted by theyoungest) and might be better than ever in TTs.
Contador not being as exceptional as he once was is also a reason I'm taking into account.

He can probably put 15 sec on Nibali in that ITT in TA.

Fair enough. I say in the worst case scenario Nibbles loses 5 to 10 seconds.

And in a ITT like the vuelta 2012 probably 1 minute if both are at 100%.

Absolutely. Even more maybe. Nibbles has never excelled in long ITTs.
But this is not what we're discussing.


@LaFlo: just 5-6 seconds?

 

[SafeBet]

@Miburo
Apparently he is now much worse but I don't see how we can conclude that

I never said much worse.
Why are people always putting words in other posters mouth just to prove their points is beyond me.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I never said much worse.
Why are people always putting words in other posters mouth just to prove their points is beyond me.

well since you're arguing Nibbles is better Alberto went from a possible win in a tt to ~10th-15th place so yes much worse

 

[LaFlorecita]

I never onced said Nibali is a better TTer than Alberto overall.
I'm saying on this particular course he can be close or slightly better. For a variety of reasons. Nibali is very familiar with this ITT, has done well in the past (check result posted by theyoungest) and might be better than ever in TTs.
Contador not being as exceptional as he once was is also a reason I'm taking into account.

Omg We haven't seen anything from Alberto yet As I tried to show with the Dauphine example, Alberto doing bad in a tt doesn't mean he's gotten worse in tting. 10 km or less is the perfect tt length for Alberto and since he turned pro he has excelled numerous times in such tts.

Tell me, please, what do you think is the reason that Alberto's is now a worse tter than before his ban? What has his ban done to him? Keep in mind that 6 months is more or less the same length as a typical off-season for Alberto.

....

I can't think of a reason.... I'm waiting for your reply.....

Oh and if you can't come up with a reason then how the hell can you be so sure he's a much less tter than he was pre-ban?

@LaFlo: just 5-6 seconds?

I thought the time gaps would be bigger. Anyway I think Alberto in top form could finish 5-10 seconds from Fabian so it all depends on Alberto's form. But since he is trying to build his form gradually till le Tour I don't know if this will be the case.

 

[Miburo]

You still haven't showed my anything that proves that Nibali is equal to Contador in short ITT.

Your only argument is that Contador got worse cause of the clinic.

And concluding that we won't see the same Contador as we did in 2009 is fargoing. In 2011 he had the same level.

He even says that he'll try and be better than in 2011, you think he would say that knowing all the clinic-stuff?

Well we'll see how good he is. But right now stating that is ridiculous.

Contador always performed excellent in short ITT, Nibali isn't that great at it. Being nr.9 at TA last year isn't really a feat to go and compare him with Contador.

Heck Contador has never been out of top 10 in the last 5 years in short ITT.

Basing yourself on clinic reasons, is flawed. Wait untill we see Contador at a better form before you're going there. Start with the clinic-stuff when Froome wins the tour against Contador.

And like I said in 2011 it already happened and he still was great at ITT.

Don't you think Contador wouldn't have crushed Nibali in the last ITT in the giro if it was 10 km?

 

[The Hitch]

Same course last year:

1. [SUI] CANCELLARA Fabian RNT 10'36" 40
2. [ITA] BENNATI Daniele RNT 12" 25
3. [AUS] MEYER Cameron OGE 16" 15
4. [CAN] TUFT Svein OGE 16" 10
5. [ITA] BOARO Manuele STB 16" 5
6. [NZL] ROULSTON Hayden RNT 17" 3
7. [GBR] STANNARD Ian SKY 18" 2
8. [SVK] VELITS Peter OPQ 20" 1
9. [ITA] NIBALI Vincenzo LIQ 20" 0
10. [ITA] PINOTTI Marco BMC 21" 0

Contador is much better than him on long TTs, but on a short TT like this, I'm not so sure.

I think Contador prefers short tts to long ones. 1st in paris nice prologue in 2009. 4th the year after. 5th in 2007 (very short 4k one).
Won the Dauphine prologue 2010 (though had a hill). 6th was it in the Tour 2010 right next to Millar and thomas (while totallly sucking in the long tt). Beat Levi and Dekker in a Castilla Leone 10k tt some years back. and so forth. Nibalis prologue palmares aint that good.

 

[Contadoraus Schlecks]

Froome to take this?

He seems to be on course for a 2012 Wiggins type year. Seems justified I suppose as he's been screwed out of the last couple of GT's

 

[LaFlorecita]

Yea I guess so

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

uran and henao will ride here and according to them they have a free role to try and win it

 

[SafeBet]

What?
Froome looks good, but damn how can you lose your faith in Berto simply for a poor showing in one stage of the freaking Tour of Oman?
He could have just waited and probably would have finished closer to Purito and Froome. Instead he attacked and blew the race apart. It's a good thing.

Plus, T/A is a much more technical race. There are tricky stages. Froome might lose time there. We don't know **** about what's gonna happen. Cheer up.

And fear the Shark

 

[Ferminal]

Don't want to ruin it... but this has the potential to be the best stage race in ages.

 

[LaFlorecita]

What?
Froome looks good, but damn how can you lose your faith in Berto simply for a poor showing in one stage of the freaking Tour of Oman?

It's not one stage

He could have just waited and probably would have finished closer to Purito and Froome. Instead he attacked and blew the race apart. It's a good thing.

No not in my opinion, I want him to win, I don't care how. This is also why I don't care about "epic battles".

Plus, T/A is a much more technical race. There are tricky stages. Froome might lose time there. We don't know **** about what's gonna happen. Cheer up.

And fear the Shark

It's not about T-A. Yes so Alberto might win if Froome loses time on one of those "tricky stages" but that doesn't take away the fact that Froome beats Alberto in both tt and mountains.

 

[SafeBet]

uran and henao will ride here and according to them they have a free role to try and win it

Wow, if that's true we're about to see one of the best one week races in years.

@Flo: pretty sure you'll regain some confidence by T/A start

 

[LaFlorecita]

Wow, if that's true we're about to see one of the best one week races in years.

@Flo: pretty sure you'll regain some confidence by T/A start

lol I'm getting tired of constantly trying to be optimistic

 

[Publicus]

Don't want to ruin it... but this has the potential to be the best stage race in ages.

Agree with this. I want everyone healthy at the start and no mentions about riding for training or future form.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Agree with this. I want everyone healthy at the start and no mentions about riding for training or future form.

We will likely hear the training/form build up song and dance prior to the race. In the end noone wants to be beaten when so many of the top guys shows up. Almost better to go for the ditch rather than being dropped.

Race looks very promising indeed.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

AC and nibbles will fight this one out.

 

[RHRH19861986]

uran and henao will ride here and according to them they have a free role to try and win it

LOL, yes, let them try...

 

[hfer07]

uran and henao will ride here and according to them they have a free role to try and win it

that's simply wishful thinking-but in reality they'll be slaving for Wiggo/Froome