2013 Tour de France, Stage 5: Cagnes-sur-Mer→Marseille (229 Km)

[Afrank]

A day for the sprinters or the breakaway?

Sagan surly will be looking on getting the win he missed out on, on stage 2 and 3. And the climbs before should benefit him in that.

I say Chavanel to take it with a late breakaway. Otherwise, if it's a sprint, Sagan to finally get his first win.

 

[Escarabajo]

Breaway wins.

...............

 

[ThirdWorld]

Sagan. 10ch

 

[Lance Armstrong]

Surely not breakaway. Greipel, Cavendish, Sagan, everybody wants first win and Orica will work as well for Goss and yellow jersey.

 

[Christian]

Should be some great scenery again, and a nice finish right by the beach! I wanted to go see this stage and tomorrow's but in the end I'm sitting at home

I went to Parc Borely last year, it's a nice area! The beach there is not so nice though - pretty dirty!

 

[the sceptic]

Definitely not the breakaway. Maybe a move on the last hill will take it but very doubtful. Cav or Sagan for me.

 

[Poursuivant]

Anyone know why that very last climb is not categorised when it looks identical to the climb before it that is a Cat 4??

 

[Lanark]

Those hills appear to look a lot more difficult than they are. I think it'll just be Cav vs. Greipel vs. Kittel.

 

[Samson777]

Should be Sagans day. Brian Holm said that Cav have been feeling really bad, and have not been looking good so far. It suits Sagan well. Otherwise maybe Degenkolb could be there, or the new sprinter kwiatkowski, or however that is spelled..

If not a sprint, probably the usual suspects Chavanel or Voeckler with a late attack..

 

[Poursuivant]

Did Cav look stronger today in the TTT?

 

[Afrank]

Should be Sagans day. Brian Holm said that Cav have been feeling really bad, and have not been looking good so far. It suits Sagan well. Otherwise maybe Degenkolb could be there, or the new sprinter kwiatkowski, or however that is spelled..

If not a sprint, probably the usual suspects Chavanel or Voeckler with a late attack..

Cav was feeling sick and on antibiotics for the last few stages, but iirc he has said he is feeling back to 100% now.

 

[Finn84]

Only way I can see breakaway winning is that there are no threats to yellow jersey. Everyone outside current top 100 is more than 10 minutes behind Orica trio now.

But all in all, I think the breakaway could be caught at Gineste at the earliest. Might be even in the last five kilometres when the breakaway ends.

For the stage win, my pick is Greipel.

 

[spalco]

Come on Cav! Hope he's close to ok again.

 

[Hayabusa]

Reckon Greipel will take this one

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

So according to climbbybike the final climb is this:

 

[McLovin]

So according to climbbybike the final climb is this:

can't see a thing. Looks easy anyway.

 

[Netserk]

can't see a thing. Looks easy anyway.

The first 2km are 6.3% from what I can see on the profile.

 

[Lance Armstrong]

So according to climbbybike the final climb is this:

Really depends how it is ridden. After whole day up and down it could be steep enough to get rid of Kittel and Cav (if he is still not feeling good). Greipel and the rest should survive.

 

[Wigwan]

Tuft to sit in front of the bunch for the first 200 km.

 

[Bye Bye Bicycle]

Having ridden the Gineste myself a couple of times even I did not have any special problems here. It's a smooth, regular hill. So the climb will not cause any damage. The first part of the descent however is a bit tricky, for riders on attack a good opportunity.

Usually Tour stages or generally bike races end in Marseille at the Stade Vélodrome. This year they put the finish line at the beach which makes for a more beautiful setting but puts another dead-flat 3 km before the finish. So perfect for a sprint finish.

 

[Kwibus]

Kittel, Cav or Greipel

 

[Netserk]

Kittel will be dropped. Cav will win. Sagan will podium.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

So according to climbbybike the final climb is this:

The green part will pretty much neutralize the climb imo.

Then consider the fact that the combined win tally of Sagan + Cav + Greipel equals zero, well all this leads to a bunch sprint.

The Gorilla will crush everybody tomorrow.

 

[Afrank]

So according to climbbybike the final climb is this:

Climb looks a lot easier than I thought, I change my pick. Instead of Chavanel, Sagan for the win. Unless Cav manages to hang on, in which case he takes it.

 

[Netserk]

Both Cav and Greipel will 'easily' hang on over the climb. Kittel is a different story...