2013 Vuelta a España, Stage 18: Burgos-Peña Cabarga (186.5 km)

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Rollthedice said:
Nibali was doing fine, he's the best among mortals in this Vuelta. But it's getting a bit difficult against Highlander. Horner should race Le Tour, teach Froome and Quintana some lessons in climbing.
Froome would have caught Kiryienka.
.
 
patrick767 said:
He's still ahead, albeit barely. He's a huge talent and if he can hang on to Horner's wheel, he'll win. That doesn't take a miracle and it's foolish to count him out. We still have some great racing ahead.
Well, actually, if Nibali only hangs on to Horner's wheel, he'll lose due to bonus seconds.
 
Hugo Koblet said:
Well, actually, if Nibali only hangs on to Horner's wheel, he'll lose due to bonus seconds.
I wish there are bonifications also in Tour. + Banning the radios and we might get the same excitement like here. Cycling should be about attacking not defending.
 
Netserk said:
He lost 20s to Purito in '10 and 25s to Horner today.

According to jens_attacks Purito's time in 2010 was 17:01, whereas Horner's time today was 16:42. That would make Nibali's time in 2010: 17:21 and his time today: 17:07.

That's 14s faster.

jens_attacks' times
I took times manually today and compared them to the data on that blog. I counted 17:18 from Nibali today.
 
Netserk said:
He lost 20s to Purito in '10 and 25s to Horner today.

According to jens_attacks Purito's time in 2010 was 17:01, whereas Horner's time today was 16:42. That would make Nibali's time in 2010: 17:21 and his time today: 17:07.

That's 14s faster.

jens_attacks' times
So, he improved to the point he could have matched Purito's best performance and comfortably above Froome/Cobo 2011. Who could have known during all these preparations and training that led to this outstanding performance that an American guy who's about to turn 42 and who finished 14 minutes down on him the only time they met in a GT, would improve in a year to this level.
 
Jul 24, 2009
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Hugo Koblet said:
Well, actually, if Nibali only hangs on to Horner's wheel, he'll lose due to bonus seconds.
Assuming they are in the top three finishers, of course.

Anyway, let's keep in mind that stage 20 is absolutely brutal and any rider having a slightly off day or another rider being slightly better than usual could make a big difference.

From CN's stage preview:
José Azevedo: "The Angliru is one of the most mythical climbs in cycling and it comes on the second to last day, when everyone is tired. If the leader has a bad day he could lose two or three minutes. Nothing will be decided until this stage as anyone within 90 seconds of the lead could still win."

Is Azevedo wrong? Given how hard the final climb is, I don't think so.
 
Aug 31, 2012
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I depends on how fast the rest goes.

You have to take into account many things:

1) The weather

2) How fast cyclist are going to climb "Tenebredo".



3) How fast cyclist are going to climb "El Cordal". The previous climb (including the dangerous descent, specially on a rainy day):


4) If the approach the full climb of "Angliru" or only the part after "Via Para". I mean, if they start the attack from the very beginning of Angliru, whatever can happens.
 
Rollthedice said:
So, he improved to the point he could have matched Purito's best performance and comfortably above Froome/Cobo 2011. Who could have known during all these preparations and training that led to this outstanding performance that an American guy who's about to turn 42 and who finished 14 minutes down on him the only time they met in a GT, would improve in a year to this level.

this is not maths, man.
Today was tailwind in the last climb.
The year of Purito was very hot, I was there.
But there is always more things to consider. Matbe others years they speculate more, etc..., today some domestiques as Vicioso, Moreno, Herrada, Majka and Kiserlowski made the climb hard from the begining
, and simon clarke worked for Horner as well :p, the peloton took it easy the day, as a solo breakaway won clearly for the first time.. maybe a yer motorbikes help more (this year for sure) you must consider a lot of things...

Nibali is not like in the Giro, they said and I see that, but maybe he is like in the Vuelta 2010, but not better, and that 14 second faster dont say he is better.

The only conclusion is that is was a good time for Horner.

I remember how Cobo and Froome sttopped sometimes, that is an important factor.
 
SKSemtex said:
I wish there are bonifications also in Tour. + Banning the radios and we might get the same excitement like here. Cycling should be about attacking not defending.
Banning radio's would not have made a difference, neither would bonus seconds as Froome would have mopped those up on Ax-3 and Ventoux. Were you asleep for Ax-3, Ventoux, Alpe D'huez and Annecy?
 
In fact, if one compare the climb of Purito in 2010 and Horner this year, they attack to Nibali in the same point, a corner at 0,8 km to the finish line, in both cases Nibali lost about 20 seconds, but Purito was 2 seconds faster that Horner, 2:17 to 2:19 in that final 800 meters.


So the difference is about the pace of the domestiques this year before that point, three yeras ago, Nibali did and attack and was along a long time, this year he was more time sucking wheel, that helps even in that slopes.

the wind was similar both years.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGUYLJJ6lVs 2010

http://www.rtve.es/alacarta/videos/vuelta-ciclista-a-espana-2013/ascension-integra-pena-cabarga/2017644/ 2013
 

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