2013 World Championships Firenze. Who will win?

[Shardi]

Switzerland will have 5 riders?

So Albassini, Zaugg, Frank and Rass maybe.

Cancellaras support looks better than what he usually receives at Trek

 

[thrawn]

Cancellera is looking in pretty good climbing form. He will be a good chance if he doesn't decide to focus on the TT.

 

[PeteTheSpinner]

O.K., Cancellara figures like the main favorite according to majority of the members here.
I agree that he's in the great shape and obviously targeting this race, but how shall he win?
Will (can?) he drop the opponents, or will he follow and try his luck in (improved) sprint, or will he exploit eventual panic and hesitancy when he launches an attack from distance.
The last option looks like the most logical. It would resemble Mendrisio, just like the course itself resembles.

 

[Afrank]

O.K., Cancellara figures like the main favorite according to majority of the members here.
I agree that he's in the great shape and obviously targeting this race, but how shall he win?
Will (can?) he drop the opponents, or will he follow and try his luck in (improved) sprint, or will he exploit eventual panic and hesitancy when he launches an attack from distance.
The last option looks like the most logical. It would resemble Mendrisio, just like the course itself resembles.

Should he end up in a select group he'll definitely try to drop the others at some point. What he does I'd say would also in part depend on who's in the final selection. If there's a guy like Sagan in the final selection then he'll likely put more effort into a bid for a solo win. If he winds up in a selection with a bunch of climbers however he may trust in his sprint more.

No matter what we'll see him attack though. After all, there's no better way to win then solo.

 

[Arredondo]

Purito and Valverde will come of short, Cancellara and Sagan will be the big favorites, with a good Quintana and Nibbles.

 

[PeteTheSpinner]

Should he end up in a select group he'll definitely try to drop the others at some point. What he does I'd say would also in part depend on who's in the final selection. If there's a guy like Sagan in the final selection then he'll likely put more effort into a bid for a solo win. If he winds up in a selection with a bunch of climbers however he may trust in his sprint more.

No matter what we'll see him attack though. After all, there's no better way to win then solo.

Where do you think he can drop the rest?
Fiesole certainly doesn't look like the place, but the descent does. The same for Salviati.
Also, if he attacks before the Fiesole, I can't imagine him staying away over the top of it.
Can he beat Valverde and Gilbert in the sprint? Other climbers he should be able to beat, I think.

 

[hfer07]

I still in doubt on why names like Cancellara & Sagan are brought here among the favorites--not to diminish their skills, but this WRR isn't going to suit them at all- it was last year's race parcours that suited Sagan,and yet he wasn't near to be seen- Cancellara may have performed amazingly in Mendrisio -but that was back in 09 and on home soil-despite his current weight loss & great form, his team is the weak spot & the Italians aren't going to make it easy for other countries to take it....

 

[The Hitch]

They will have 9 riders...

Don't they need 9 riders to actually score wt points in order to have 9 riders?

Cancellaras support looks better than what he usually receives at Trek

Zaugg will be coming right into his bizzare annual Giro di Lombardia peak

 

[PeteTheSpinner]

I still in doubt on why names like Cancellara & Sagan are brought here among the favorites--not to diminish their skills, but this WRR isn't going to suit them at all- it was last year's race parcours that suited Sagan,and yet he wasn't near to be seen- Cancellara may have performed amazingly in Mendrisio -but that was back in 09 and on home soil-despite his current weight loss & great form, his team is the weak spot & the Italians aren't going to make it easy for other countries to take it....

I was of the same opinion when I saw the course for the first time. But since Cancellara expressed his intention to take a shot at it and skipped the Tour in order to prepare the best he can for it, and looking him at Vuelta, I'm more and more convinced he has a good idea how to do it.
His impact on the race should be huge.

 

[Afrank]

Where do you think he can drop the rest?
Fiesole certainly doesn't look like the place, but the descent does. The same for Salviati.
Also, if he attacks before the Fiesole, I can't imagine him staying away over the top of it.
Can he beat Valverde and Gilbert in the sprint? Other climbers he should be able to beat, I think.

The descent would probably be a good bet, if he could get over Salviati with a decent gap to the guys behind then he would have a very good shot of soloing the rest of the way to the win I think. The climbers will likely try to use Fiesole and to a slightly lesser extent Salviati to drop guys like him, Sagan, and Gilbert. So he should try to mostly hang with them there and if he can do that, hit them hard on the descent when their tired form work on the climb. I could see him trying to go away in the final flat as well, and just try to power away from everyone else.

I think he could probably beat Valverde in a flat land sprint, Gilbert I would put him fairly equal to in sprinting.

 

[Marco Pantani]

I can't see a pure climber like Quintana winning this. First climb isn't steep enough, second isn't long enough. No one can ride the first climb faster than Cancellara, you'll see, not even lo squalo. He's also used to do those muros like Via Salviati. So the longer i think about this parcours, the more it has Cancellara written all over it.

 

[Afrank]

I still in doubt on why names like Cancellara & Sagan are brought here among the favorites--not to diminish their skills, but this WRR isn't going to suit them at all- it was last year's race parcours that suited Sagan,and yet he wasn't near to be seen- Cancellara may have performed amazingly in Mendrisio -but that was back in 09 and on home soil-despite his current weight loss & great form, his team is the weak spot & the Italians aren't going to make it easy for other countries to take it....

I still think Nibali will ultimately take the win, but Cancellara is proving he could definitely have what it takes to be a contender. For me, before the Vuelta I considered Cance a darkhorse for the win, the way he's climbing though moves him up to contender status.

Also, Sagan last year entered the worlds tired from a long season. He and iirc his coach said they weren't expecting much from him do to him being tired from a long season. This years course doesn't really suit him, but he does seem to be working towards it more then he did last year.

 

[PeteTheSpinner]

The descent would probably be a good bet, if he could get over Salviati with a decent gap to the guys behind then he would have a very good shot of soloing the rest of the way to the win I think. The climbers will likely try to use Fiesole and to a slightly lesser extent Salviati to drop guys like him, Sagan, and Gilbert. So he should try to mostly hang with them there and if he can do that, hit them hard on the descent when their tired form work on the climb. I could see him trying to go away in the final flat as well, and just try to power away from everyone else.

I think he could probably beat Valverde in a flat land sprint, Gilbert I would put him fairly equal to in sprinting.

I think Salviati won't be a problem if he gets to it with an advantage. It's a climb which he can power up to, similar to the climbs in the Flemish Ardennes.
That's why I think the descent from Fiesole is ideal place... A nice stretch before Salviati and confusion behind him in the group. An attack after Salviati would probably end like last several editions of MSR. But hey, he's won MSR from kilometer to go... Why not?

 

[burning]

I think it is going to be like 2011 Ronde and Roubaix, he's way too strong for his own sake imo

 

[Netserk]

Where Canc will do his last attack? Via Trento.

 

[PeteTheSpinner]

Where Canc will do his last attack? Via Trento.

You're right.
Forget Fiesole descent, this is the place where he can blow them all.
And the U turn about a mile from he finish should play in his advantage perfectly.

 

[murali]

Also, Sagan last year entered the worlds tired from a long season. He and iirc his coach said they weren't expecting much from him do to him being tired from a long season. This years course doesn't really suit him, but he does seem to be working towards it more then he did last year.

wrt, i think he might peek too soon/

 

[nepetalactone]

I just haven't seen an instance in the last 4 seasons where Spartacus has miss judged his form. He's always good right when he wants to be. Also, unlike 2011 where it was basically the peloton vs. Cancellara, I think that the deeper field will work to his advantage. Look at (was it stage 3?) him with Moreno - he'll have the legs to sit at the front with the climbers going all out at least once or twice up both climbs. I also think the last couple times up will be to only times he needs to do that. 2012 San Remo sans Gerrans?

 

[SKSemtex]

Reading these forum it looks like the Sagan strategy for WC is very easy.
Forget about Italians, Spaniards and Colombian Just wheel-suck the Cance till last 70 m .

 

[LaFlorecita]

Damn I so hope Fabs wins this but I could see his favorite status killing his chances can't think of someone in the current peloton who deserves the rainbow stripes more than Fabs.

 

[PeteTheSpinner]

Reading these forum it looks like the Sagan strategy for WC is very easy.
Forget about Italians, Spaniards and Colombian Just wheel-suck the Cance till last 70 m .

Yeah... Just like he did in De Ronde.

Damn I so hope Fabs wins this but I could see his favorite status killing his chances can't think of someone in the current peloton who deserves the rainbow stripes more than Fabs.

Exactly.
Last year it was Gilberts turn, now it's time for Cancellara.
Victory on this course would properly illustrate his greatness.

 

[JaffaGT]

Voeckler takes it.

 

[theyoungest]

Cancellara.

 

[Pulpstar]

I note the spaniards Piti, Purito and Contador are all seperate choices but the columbians are all togther - perception that Columbia will work together whereas Spain won't ?

 

[The Hitch]

I note the spaniards Piti, Purito and Contador are all seperate choices but the columbians are all togther - perception that Columbia will work together whereas Spain won't ?

ColOmbia

I think it was because I thought Rodriguez and Valverde were bigger favourites than any of the Colombians and I only had 9 votes.

And in hindsight I'll aknowledge my poll choices were all wrong. If "Other" gets the most votes the poll has failed.

Cancellara and Sagan instead of Contador and Schleck to start with