2013 World Championships Firenze. Who will win?

[del1962]

I don't know, but he does have another 3 weeks to perfect it.

But also with Uran his best performances do seem to come from nowhere. He did absolutely nothing before the Giro this year for example and came 2nd.

Olympics last year is an even better example, with only a meh TDP between the giro and that.

He then didnt do much for anothr 2 months before 1st Piedmonte and 3rd Lombardia. His original Lombardia podium also came with no prior backup.

I don't think it is fair to say he did nothing before Giro, his form as a worker for Froome in T-A on the mountain top finish was impressive, and he worked for Wiggins in Catalunya.

 

[Rollthedice]

What do you think about Sagan's chances?

 

[tomorrow]

What do you think about Sagan's chances?

actually, in my opinion he certainly could be a factor, as other punchers do. I would place him with same odds as for cancellara. However, i think that fiesole ran at top possible pace more than twice will cook them. However, for this to happen, at least one of the gc guys will have to go all in in the third last lap, which is quite soon. And it will be a pretty gamble, because in this scenario, they will drop punchers, but might also drop themselves. It will be interesting to see, if somebody has the gutts to do this. If not, then the odds will still be a little bit on the side of the gc guys, but only slightly, i'd say 60:40. For sagan and cancellara, it might be and advantage, that they will go there as underdogs, which especially for sagan has been working quite well.

 

[del1962]

actually, in my opinion he certainly could be a factor, as other punchers do. I would place him with same odds as for cancellara. However, i think that fiesole ran at top possible pace more than twice will cook them. However, for this to happen, at least one of the gc guys will have to go all in in the third last lap, which is quite soon. And it will be a pretty gamble, because in this scenario, they will drop punchers, but might also drop themselves. It will be interesting to see, if somebody has the gutts to do this. If not, then the odds will still be a little bit on the side of the gc guys, but only slightly, i'd say 60:40. For sagan and cancellara, it might be and advantage, that they will go there as underdogs, which especially for sagan has been working quite well.

Colombia might does this?

 

[ILovecycling]

Colombia might does this?

Yeah,I think that this is real possibility.They've got a lot of leaders so they can bang early...

 

[tomorrow]

Yeah,I think that this is real possibility.They've got a lot of leaders so they can bang early...

I agree, based on the names, I would not say colombia might do this, but colombia should do this. On man in the break, a the other make a train to drop the puncher, and maybe not only them.

However, a little bit, I hope they and also no other team would do that, but that's only me being Slovak. On the other hand, it will be fun to watch if they do to, because that would mean actuall racing.

But in the end, the actual shape of the riders will be the biggest factor.

 

[Netserk]

The biggest difference to L-B-L is that the final is much harder in Liege. Firenze ends with the final kms dead flat.

 

[The Hitch]

The biggest difference to L-B-L is that the final is much harder in Liege. Firenze ends with the final kms dead flat.

Meaning the climbers will have to start earlier.

 

[marco.t]

Speaking about contenders, I think I've read somewhere that Sagan doesn't rate his chances too high. He thinks the course is too hard for him.
And about Shardi's analysis, I just have to add that Fiesole is a two-part climb. First 2800 meters are at 4.1%, and the rest is at 7%. Two different dynamics. Add to it Via Salviati and I see very tiring race with the length and changes of rhythm.
Regarding the vertical gain, this course gains more than LBL according to the data I've found. But that isn't exactly the best way to asses the difficulty and predict the outcome, anyway.
Climbers should have the upper hand, but watching Cancellara in Spain, I see a determined and fired up rider. Unfortunately, I'm sure everybody else see the same.
And he's the only one cobble hunter I can imagine in the mix at the finish of this course.

 

[JRanton]

Someone will come out of the Vuelta in crazy form and will win. It doesn't have to be one of the big favourites either. Look at Riblon's performance in Poland after the Tour for instance. The clue should be in the final week of the Vuelta.

 

[murali]

Someone will come out of the Vuelta in crazy form and will win. It doesn't have to be one of the big favourites either. Look at Riblon's performance in Poland after the Tour for instance. The clue should be in the final week of the Vuelta.

you mean angliru will decide?

 

[greenedge]

As for your small list of favourites selected from the vuelta, I would add 1 name and 1 name only - Rigoberto Uran.

To me he has shown, especially with the Olympics last year, and he hadn't even done the tour, as well as of course his lombardia performances and the occasional lbl one, that he can be an absolute superheavyweight in races like this.

The problem EBH has (actually in many races not just the worlds) is that any small group finish he's in is also likely to contain Sagan who will outsprint him 9 times out of 10.

I agree- but will add Quintana- he should be co-leader.

I know this sounds ridiculous- but i honestly think if EBH vs Sagan in a flat sprint he will win.

 

[rghysens]

Cancellara.

 

[nepetalactone]

Cancellara.

This. He's looking the beast.

...Unless he rides into a wall...

 

[nepetalactone]

Actually, after Cadel's day today, maybe he's on track to pull another something special on the 29th? IMO, he should really spend his last couple seasons focusing on one-day races. A tenacious mofo, that one.

 

[Afrank]

Actually, after Cadel's day today, maybe he's on track to pull another something special on the 29th? IMO, he should really spend his last couple seasons focusing on one-day races. A tenacious mofo, that one.

That would be a smart decision. Stage races get harder the older you get (especially GT's), because it's harder to stay consistent over so many racing days. But one days almost everyone can have a shot under the right scenario. He has also said that he may use the Ardennes to help in building form for the Giro next year.

 

[movingtarget]

That would be a smart decision. Stage races get harder the older you get (especially GT's), because it's harder to stay consistent over so many racing days. But one days almost everyone can have a shot under the right scenario. He has also said that he may use the Ardennes to help in building form for the Giro next year.

Now that Gerrans is not riding the Worlds, Evans will be the Aussies number one choice. Hope can do a good ride. Normally this sort of course would suit him. He has missed his best year's in the Ardennes but on his day he can still surprise and one day races are more of a lottery.

 

[Pippo_San]

That would be a smart decision. Stage races get harder the older you get (especially GT's), because it's harder to stay consistent over so many racing days. But one days almost everyone can have a shot under the right scenario. He has also said that he may use the Ardennes to help in building form for the Giro next year.

Now tell that to Papy Horner

Anyway if the race will be played hard, I highly doubt the likes of Cancellara and Sagan will keep up. Especially Cancellara, no ****in way.

 

[Afrank]

Now tell that to Papy Horner

Anyway if the race will be played hard, I highly doubt the likes of Cancellara and Sagan will keep up. Especially Cancellara, no ****in way.

The age that a rider peaks at is different for everyone. Horner seems to be a later bloomer as his better GT results are coming in the latter years of his career. He looks to be on his way to a podium, but don't forget that Evans also was 3rd in the Giro. With the right field the Giro and Vuelta are the GT's that old guys like Evans and Horner have a better chance in.

 

[Netserk]

Now tell that to Papy Horner

Anyway if the race will be played hard, I highly doubt the likes of Cancellara and Sagan will keep up. Especially Cancellara, no ****in way.

The harder it is ridden, the better it is for Canc.

 

[Marco Pantani]

Spartacus still up there with the favourites at la vuelta. Boy oh boy.

 

[Red Rick]

Cancellara is going to be very hard to beat I think

 

[Shardi]

Generally hard pace wont drop cancellara. Attacks on the little 600m ramp will certainly not drop cancellara. The only thing that can hurt is to have whole team trains from the first meter of the major climb, every ascent. Think even that wont do it..

Hard pace on the flats or in general will be better for cancellara than for the climbers. 280 km of high pace will hurt the climbers, while cancellara thrives under those conditions.

I wonder how much of a toll this vuelta weather takes on Nibali, Valverde, Rodriguez et al. Going full speed for the victory, compared to Cancellara for example.

 

[The Hitch]

Switzerland will have 5 riders?

So Albassini, Zaugg, Frank and Rass maybe.

 

[Netserk]

Switzerland will have 5 riders?

So Albassini, Zaugg, Frank and Rass maybe.

They will have 9 riders...