2014 TDF Green Jersey

[jaylew]

I only see Kittel and Sagan having a shot really, but Sagan's the overwhelming favorite in my mind. As others have mentioned, the only way Sagan's going to lose this is if one guy dominates the flat sprints and the only guy capable of that is Kittel. However, I highly doubt he'll shut out Cav or Greipel as there are likely to be a sprint or two where he doesn't make the final.

I read this on the homepage but had to check CQ to verify. Cav has never won a head to head sprint against Kittel.

IOW, he's never won a race in which Kittel was also contesting the final. He's 0-7 against him. Greipel has had more opportunities and has won a couple but hasn't fared much better the last few years. Of course, Cav and the Gorilla are more versatile and have won races when Kittel didn't make the final.

 

[Jspear]

I only see Kittel and Sagan having a shot really, but Sagan's the overwhelming favorite in my mind. As others have mentioned, the only way Sagan's going to lose this is if one guy dominates the flat sprints and the only guy capable of that is Kittel. However, I highly doubt he'll shut out Cav or Greipel as there are likely to be a sprint or two where he doesn't make the final.

I read this on the homepage but had to check CQ to verify. Cav has never won a head to head sprint against Kittel.

IOW, he's never won a race in which Kittel was also contesting the final. He's 0-7 against him. Greipel has had more opportunities and has won a couple but hasn't fared much better the last few years. Of course, Cav and the Gorilla are more versatile and have won races when Kittel didn't make the final.

It is for this reason that I have Cav as the fav to win. The finish is hard and from what I have heard the roads are small. Cav and his team will fair better than Kittel and Giant in this terrain. Of course I wouldn't count out Sagan. If things are extremely hard then that could take the sting out of Cav's sprint or eliminate him entirely. But out of the "pure" sprinters I believe Cav is the favorite, and I hoping he'll take it.

 

[manafana]

Demare should have been an option. He has some weaknesses in chaotic sprints but he is almost as strong as Sagan uphill plus more powerful than Sagan if the route is up and down ( 4 days of D was a great example).
Plus only marginally slower in a classic bunch sprint than the big 3 ( Cav, Grei, Kit). Faster than Sagan or Degenkolb.
Big engine is important in TDF.

I think it will be difficult for Kittel, Cavendish and Greipel. Oyonnax and Nancy - impossible to survive.
St. Etienne and Bergerac 50/50. Maybe 1 or 2 of them.
0 points will hurt you if your opponent scores big.

agreed Demare could be the thorn in Sagans side if he gives it his best go.

 

[wayahead]

Without Cav Kittel the hot favourite for green.

 

[gunara]

Without Cav Kittel the hot favourite for green.

...said a Slovakian, sweet

 

[MartinGT]

Without Cav Kittel the hot favourite for green.

You think?

Sagan for me, he is more capable if you ask me of mopping up the intermediates as soon as the gradients start to ramp up.

 

[Netserk]

Without Cav Kittel the hot favourite for green.

Not really. On stage one he took a grand total of zero points on Sagan...

 

[Lance Armstrong]

Kittel is not interested in green. He did not contest intermediate sprints.

 

[veji11]

Without Cav Kittel the hot favourite for green.

Nah,Sagan is just too much of a supercharged Hushovd. The only credible rival for Sagan would have been Degenkolb had Giant decided to play his card instead of Kittel's : Degenkolb is now faster than Sagan on the flat and although still weaker on hilly terrain (see what happened yesterday) he is still good enough to stay with the bunch on stages like Nancy, Oyonnax, St Etienne and Bergerac.

Since Giant decided to play the Kittel card, Sagan is a virtual lock for green barring dropping out.

They would have to change the way points are given to give Kittel a chance. Basically give more of a premium to victory and less to regularity. If on flat stages you had something like 45/30/20/18/16/etc... then someone Like Kittel would have a chance, but with today's table, a guy like Sagan going consistently in the top5 on flat stages an winning hilly ones cannot lose against Kittel who only scores in a minority of stages.

 

[gunara]

Nah,Sagan is just too much of a supercharged Hushovd. The only credible rival for Sagan would have been Degenkolb had Giant decided to play his card instead of Kittel's : Degenkolb is now faster than Sagan on the flat and although still weaker on hilly terrain (see what happened yesterday) he is still good enough to stay with the bunch on stages like Nancy, Oyonnax, St Etienne and Bergerac.

Sorry, if this is OT. I only saw the last part of Le Mond's interview with Degenkolb yesterday, and they only talked about Kittel's chance, as if it was just another member of sprint train they're talking to. Anything interesting earlier?

 

[lennart]

This is the most boring jersey, this year. And I guess the next couple of them.
Sagan . No other team will put this as their mayor goal in the tour. maybe if Gerrans or Degenkolb have a team around for this., they could have a chance.

 

[jaylew]

Degenkolb is now faster than Sagan on the flat

I't's possible I guess but I'm certainly not ready to concede that. Historically Sagan's been faster and even if you just look at their most recent results they come out about even.

 

[wayahead]

Kittel is not interested in green. He did not contest intermediate sprints.

If Drago wins today, Giant will consider.