2014 Tirreno Adriatico, Stage 5: Amatrice - Guardiagrele: 192 km

[coimbrawu]

Pozzovivo should be real good in such gradient, just like Punta Valeno.

But Quintana is not bad at all in last year's Pais Vasco's tricky climb and Muro di Sormano.

But position is real important for such monster climb with narrow row. If someone at front could not handle the gradient well and decelerate or just stop, the men behind him have to spend more energy to catch. So I think those GC contender with super team behind them should be in favor. So it is quite hard for Pozzovivo to win as he has to fight for the position.

 

[movingtarget]

I think Kwia will handle this stage well and not lose time to Contador, Porte or Quintana. Very different to yesterday. With a short final stage TT, he will be hard to get past. Very good finish for the likes of Moreno.

 

[rhubroma]

Agreed. Top favorite in my books.

Moreno for the win. Of course he has to arrive at the muro with the leaders.

That is if the fireworks are lit already on Passo Lamciano, then we could see a special race with maybe Contador and Quintana gaining an advantage before the muro. But if Moreno arrives there at the front then it will be a race for second place I reckon.

 

[gunara]

Why is the 'yet' in Kwiatkowski is not yet a top mountain climber? Are we really sure he will ever (try to) be?
And yes, good for some Mureno time today

 

[Ferminal]

5 kmh tail/cross on Lanciano, no excuses.

 

[Bushman]

What is Kwiatkowski= great descender based on? I'm assuming its one example maybe 2 because thats all we usually get since 99% of descents are not raced.

Contador showed in Pinerolo insane descending form. He showed some good descending skills on Alpe last year and even though he crashed, courage on Manse.

Anyway when was the last time the gc leader attacked on a descent. Attacks on descents are rare enough on their own but a leader doing it would be even more surprising. With a climb still to go?



Not necessarily. Final tt is 9k. Contador at his prime was one of the best in the world at short tts, maybe even top 3 or even top 2. Its flatter than he would like but is at the end so recovery is a factor. If this "Contador is back" hubub, is true, he can match Kwiatkowski and beat Porte on Monday.

Well, he isn't back to 2009 or 2011 level yet. I think he is gonna ride a good tt, but I think he will need around 10 seconds on Kwia to win. porte I think he can almost match.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Not necessarily. Final tt is 9k. Contador at his prime was one of the best in the world at short tts, maybe even top 3 or even top 2. Its flatter than he would like but is at the end so recovery is a factor. If this "Contador is back" hubub, is true, he can match Kwiatkowski and beat Porte on Monday.

Hitch you know just as well as us that this isn't the 2009 Contador. The gap with Porte should be sufficient, but he still needs at least 10s on Kwiatkowski. That's why it will be hard to win the race overall 16s is doable, but he needs even more.

Don't forget he lost 20s to Kwiatkowski in 12.5km in Algarve.

 

[ianstannard]

Hope that Richie Porte will win this. Mikel Nieve needs to help out

 

[Pentacycle]

Hitch you know just as well as us that this isn't the 2009 Contador. The gap with Porte should be sufficient, but he still needs at least 10s on Kwiatkowski. That's why it will be hard to win the race overall 16s is doable, but he needs even more.

Don't forget he lost 20s to Kwiatkowski in 12.5km in Algarve.

Contador was also dropped by Kwiat on the first hilly stage. Don't forget Algarve was just his first race of the season, his form is on the rise while Kwiat won't improve much.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Contador was also dropped by Kwiat on the first hilly stage. Don't forget Algarve was just his first race of the season, his form is on the rise while Kwiat won't improve much.

Sure, I'm just saying we shouldn't count on Contador matching Kwiatkowski

 

[jens_attacks]

kreuziger to win this race on lanciano. kiwi to be isolated and lose a lot imo

jeez if nothing happens on lanciano, it will be a sad day
i always prefer a mountain with human ramps raced full speed than seeing rider crawling at 5 km/h on a wall.

 

[RedheadDane]

LaFlorecita, I'm confused. Are you actually taking the role of being "against" Contador in this discussion?

i always prefer a mountain with human ramps raced full speed than seeing rider crawling at 5 km/h on a wall.

Do you volunteer to be a part of such a ramp?

 

[LaFlorecita]

LaFlorecita, I'm confused. Are you actually taking the role of being "against" Contador in this discussion?

Yes because Kwiat is a better TTer but hopefully he loses around 30s today

 

[Netserk]

Not talking about being the fastest up the Muro, but rather the gap Kwia wil have if nobody races Lanciano. Kwia is an excellent descender. Better than Contador and Kreuziger imo. Drag him over the climb at your peril.

Check the intermediate times in the 2nd ITT at last year's Tour. All three were giving it everything, and Kreuziger was the 2nd fastest on the descent, only beaten by Sagan (and that despite the fact that he and Alberto rode on a hybrid-bike).

 

[Ferminal]

lol, they better go really slow otherwise we will miss half of Lanciano. At 38kmh scheduled coverage starts at the bottom... stage is downhill up to that point...

 

[LaFlorecita]

Are there any bonus seconds at the intermediate sprints?

 

[Hugo Koblet]

What's Kwiat track record on double digit percent climb?

He was 5th in Flèche Wallone last year and recently destroyed Sagan in Strade Bianche.

 

[Netserk]

Are there any bonus seconds at the intermediate sprints?

Yes. 3-2-1.

 

[ianstannard]

If Kwia loses big time to Contador, Porte and Quintana. And if these 3 stay together when they finish. The final GC will be 1. Contador 2 Porte 3 Quintana. If Kwia is still in the race. The final GC will be 1 or 2. Contador or Kwia and 3. Porte.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

What is Kwiatkowski= great descender based on? I'm assuming its one example maybe 2 because thats all we usually get since 99% of descents are not raced.

Contador showed in Pinerolo insane descending form. He showed some good descending skills on Alpe last year and even though he crashed, courage on Manse.

Anyway when was the last time the gc leader attacked on a descent. Attacks on descents are rare enough on their own but a leader doing it would be even more surprising. With a climb still to go?

Kwia is too young to have many datapoints, but just this year he beat Contador in Algave on a small descent and he beat a bunch of wannabees in Trofeo Serra de Tramuntana (1.1) on a somewhat technical descent. The rest builds on some subjective ideas involving TT skills, body shape and a fearless mentality. Will it add up today? There is a chance imo. Tinkoff can bet against it if they think its all spin.

 

[LaFlorecita]

He was 5th in Flèche Wallone last year and recently destroyed Sagan in Strade Bianche.

The climb to il Campo: average 6.5 max 16%
Mur de Huy average 10% max 19??%

Guardiagrele: average 20% max 30%

Seems like a different cup of tea to me.

Kwiatkowski lost 27s to Contador on the muro to Chieti last year.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Check the intermediate times in the 2nd ITT at last year's Tour. All three were giving it everything, and Kreuziger was the 2nd fastest on the descent, only beaten by Sagan (and that despite the fact that he and Alberto rode on a hybrid-bike).

Kreuziger might get close in skills, which is whyI think he should take advantage on the climb and stay away. Contador is not in the same league descent wise.

Just my opinion.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Kreuziger might get close in skills, which is whyI think he should take advantage on the climb and stay away. Contador is not in the same league descent wise.

Just my opinion.

Stage 17 Tour 2011 he may not have the same skills but he's got balls

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Stage 17 Tour 2011 he may not have the same skills but he's got balls

Now that I agree with. Hes willing to take massive risks.

 

[SergeDeM]

Now that I agree with. Hes willing to take massive risks.

Only at the tour. TA is probably not worth it.