Tony is of course the big favorite today. He hasn't been quite as strong in the two ITT's he has done this year (both short) as usual, which could indicate that he's not in quite as good a shape as last year. However, his performances here in Tirreno indicate otherwise. He was very strong in the TTT and has been looking very good as part of Cavendish's train, single handedly creating the selection on stage 3.
However, one rider not to overlook today is Malori, who has come first and second in two of the ITT's he's done this year, beating Phinney in San Luis and only losing to Kwiatkowski in Algarve where he even beat Martin by 2 seconds. In Dubai, however, he "only" finished seventh, beaten by 10 seconds by Martin who finished 4th.
Malori really excels in these relatively short ITT's and he was second here last year, beaten only by Martin by 6 seconds. This ITT should be one of his eearly targets this year, and he seems to have improved a bit compared to last year. I wouldn't be surprised to see him run away with the win here.