2014 Tour de France July 23, Stage 17: Saint-Gaudens - Saint-Lary-Soulan Pla d'Adet 1

[Tank Engine]

A lot depends on who is going to be in the break. The one guy that has to be there is Purito, as otherwise he can say goodbye to the polka jersey for good. Saxo Bank will be riding for Majka (both for the stage and for the polka dots), so either he'll be in the break (quite likely with another Saxo guy) or Saxo will chase. I'll take the first option. Purito takes the first couple of climbs, but Rafał goes off into the distance and survives well enough on the final climb to extend his lead in the competition.

In addition there will be the traditional stage hunters. The most keen to be there will be Sky (most likely Thomas or Nieve, but let's be honest, neither of them has a chance of winning), Europcar (but on a stage like this, it may well be to set up an attack from Rolland, depending on the state of the race, I'd say on the penultimate climb) and the wild card teams (will Feillu be there?)

Many of the GC guys will want a guy up the road, particularly Movistar, Ag2R and FDJ. If Movistar are as strong as they looked today, Nibali may well be isolated on the penultimate climb. The stage has the potential to be epic.

However, (party pooping now ) those around him will be more worn out and given the terrain, the Shark will be able to look after himself. In addition, I suspect that no-one one believes that Nibali can be beaten and the big GC battle will be for 2nd place. Since the gaps aren't that big, the guys looking to podium will be either waiting for the final climb to attack (most likely Pinot, Peraud) or trying to hold on (TJ). In the end, Valverde will probably be defending his position and Nibali controlling.

Conclusion: If the winner comes from the break, Majka
Otherwise: Main candidates: Pinot, Nibali, Peraud. (I'd say in that order)

I'll go for Majka to win and take a bigger lead in the mountains competition.

 

[meat puppet]

Even if the stage fails at being an epic one, at least the Fanbois are going full *** speculating THE QUESTION in every thread left right and centre.

Would be nice if someone anyone put nibali under pressure. My bets would be papy peraud and pinot. Not expecting them to even gain time tho. Valverde not up to it, bjt movi to do some wurk. Purito to beat majka in kom battle.

 

[Museeuw]

... Since the gaps aren't that big, the guys looking to podium will be either waiting for the final climb to attack (most likely Pinot, Peraud) or trying to hold on (TJ). In the end, Valverde will probably be defending his position and Nibali controlling.

Conclusion: If the winner comes from the break, Majka
Otherwise: Main candidates: Pinot, Nibali, Peraud. (I'd say in that order)

I'll go for Majka to win and take a bigger lead in the mountains competition.

I think Peraud have no reason to attack, he just need to stay with Pinot on the mountains and he will pass him on ITT for sure. In my opinion Peraud should ride conservatively today and tomorrow, it's his best chance to get on podium.

About Majka, it would be huge mistake if Purito goes to the break and he will not.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I hope the break battle will continue up the first climb of the day, Col du Portillon. If it does, we could be in for a pretty spectacular day.

The best outcome would be a small group of GC riders with almost no support riders emerging somewhere up Col de Val Louron-Azet. The winner of the stage will come from that group.

GC battle involving the stage win please.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

AV looks shaky to me today. I think TP might want to move one more spot up and put more time into JP.

my god how f'n hard is it too write down names instead of abbrevations. tp, av, jp wtf just stop!

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

De Marchi, Purito, Majka, Martin in breakaway.
This course should suit Pinot. I hope he will deliver.

climbs are way too short for pinot

 

[Cimber]

Tinkoff to make it 3 in a row? Majka is a real possibility today if a break makes it.

If a break doesnt make it I hope Pinot will win.

 

[Jagartrott]

climbs are way too short for pinot

Climbs are short, but in quick succession. I think he spoke earlier about how that suits him, and I think he's proven as much before.

 

[Carstenbf]

Can't remember watching a 124k stage with 4 big climbs, so not quite sure what to expect. Wondering if there will even be a "break" as such today, or just a bunch of climbers + GC men.

Expecting Majka or Nibs ftw depending on how things unfold. While Majka will be going for the Polka dots, it seems the best way to accomplish that would be to ride for the stage win. (that's what Riis says anyways)

Personally I'm hoping one of the old men Péraud/Horner to win.

 

[Cimber]

Can't remember watching a 124k stage with 4 big climbs, so not quite sure what to expect. Wondering if there will even be a "break" as such today, or just a bunch of climbers + GC men.

Expecting Majka or Nibs ftw depending on how things unfold. While Majka will be going for the Polka dots, it seems the best way to accomplish that would be to ride for the stage win. (that's what Riis says anyways)

Personally I'm hoping one of the old men Péraud/Horner to win.

Expect firework from the start and all day long! And best part is that TV will be live from km 0

 

[manafana]

I think Peraud have no reason to attack, he just need to stay with Pinot on the mountains and he will pass him on ITT for sure. In my opinion Peraud should ride conservatively today and tomorrow, it's his best chance to get on podium.

About Majka, it would be huge mistake if Purito goes to the break and he will not.

under rate Pinot in a tt at your peril, don't have results but in my mind I would have him as better in the time trial than Peraud, likely he puts out more watts.

 

[Czapiewski]

Majka in interview with polish journalist today, not precise citation: Tactics is simple, wait, rather not go into breakaways, attack on the last climb.

 

[Cimber]

Majka in interview with polish journalist today, not precise citation: Tactics is simple, wait, rather not go into breakaways, attack on the last climb.

Surprising to be honest. But if Purito attacks early I guess Majka has to follow that move

 

[Netserk]

Surprising to be honest. But if Purito attacks early I guess Majka has to follow that move

30 points for the break, 50 on the final climb. I think it's a good strategi as he will be fresh for tomorrow then. I think he will top-3 both days even if he stays in the bunch.

 

[Cimber]

30 points for the break, 50 on the final climb. I think it's a good strategi as he will be fresh for tomorrow then. I think he will top-3 both days even if he stays in the bunch.

If he will win from the favorite group, yes. But thats a risk. Then TS needs to help control any break, to make sure its reeled in again. He could also just get in the break and win from the break (0: But thats ofcourse a risk too. It all comes down to wether Riis thinks a break will make it or not

 

[LosBrolin]

Hooray for possible early fireworks! If Majka managed to get this, Tinkoff boys Tour after AC abandon will at least turn up to highly + performance.

 

[Netserk]

If he will win from the favorite group, yes. But thats a risk. Then TS needs to help control any break, to make sure its reeled in again. He could also just get in the break and win from the break (0: But thats ofcourse a risk too. It all comes down to wether Riis thinks a break will make it or not

40 for 2nd, 32 for 3rd, 28 for 4th. I don't think Purito will score any points on the MTFs, so Nibali is the biggest danger.

 

[Cimber]

40 for 2nd, 32 for 3rd, 28 for 4th. I don't think Purito will score any points on the MTFs, so Nibali is the biggest danger.

There is the risk that Purito will get in the break (highly likely), win the 3 first MTF and then also score points (but likely not win) on the last MTF. So TS MUST make sure that the break doesnt last. That could work but will be hard work for Roche and Rogers for sure.

If Purito wins the 3 first ones in a break (which is likely). Majka needs to finish at least 3rd and ahead of Nibali on the last climb. Doable but gonna be rough. Exiting stuff to be honest as its very equal between JRod, Nibs and Majka. Best and closest polka-dot battle in a while.

 

[Cimber]

Bikeshed-UEx‏@BikeshedUEx·2h
Reto Hollenstein, IAM, rode the longest stage of le Tour with a collapsed lung yesterday,crashing at 1k. After 223km, he finished. In tears.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Hopefully a strong break goes up the road and we get a great battle for the stage win and then a battle behind between the GC guys.

 

[SafeBet]

Not sure De Marchi wants to be in the break today. He is still recovering from his sickness and he knows the battle for polka dots will be on fire today. He's likelier to be in the break tomorrow, aiming at the stage.

 

[Eclipse]

Bikeshed-UEx‏@BikeshedUEx·2h
Reto Hollenstein, IAM, rode the longest stage of le Tour with a collapsed lung yesterday,crashing at 1k. After 223km, he finished. In tears.

Jesus. Been quite a few hardman rides this tour.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

There is the risk that Purito will get in the break (highly likely), win the 3 first MTF and then also score points (but likely not win) on the last MTF. So TS MUST make sure that the break doesnt last. That could work but will be hard work for Roche and Rogers for sure.

If Purito wins the 3 first ones in a break (which is likely). Majka needs to finish at least 3rd and ahead of Nibali on the last climb. Doable but gonna be rough. Exiting stuff to be honest as its very equal between JRod, Nibs and Majka. Best and closest polka-dot battle in a while.

It's a short stage so it's not unlikely that everyone from the break will be reeled in by other teams. If Majka still has freak form, OTOH, Tinkoff can pretty much make their own luck and help control the breakaway.

If Majka is not a top climber in the two remaining mountain stages he won't win the jersey anyway, IMO. Unless Nibali cracks.

I don't see Purito as a serious threat anymore. Doesn't have the form.

 

[The Barb]

Majka in interview with polish journalist today, not precise citation: Tactics is simple, wait, rather not go into breakaways, attack on the last climb.

That's very interesting. If Purito goes in the break it's highly likely he picks up max on the first three climbs, therefore 30 points. Points on the final climbs are 50, 40, 32, 28, 24 ... so he must really be rating his form to think he can finish top three rising against the GC contenders.

Also interesting from a stage winner perspective, because if Majka isn't in the break then Saxo will make sure it has no chance of surviving.

 

[Czapiewski]

I was suprised also, maybe smokescreen, but this tweet of the journalist seems like it was some kind of informal chat as he spend some time with Saxo team.