2014 Tour de France July 26, Stage 20: Bergerac - Périgueux (ITT) 54km

[Moose McKnuckles]

Moose's projected finishing order for the 54km TT:

1. Panzerwagen
2. Panzerwagen's shadow +25
3. Nibali + 45
4. TJvG + 57
5. Dumoulin + 1.01

 

[Moviefan1203]

Van Garderen for the win to salvage something out of this Tour. One bad day likely killed him finishing 2nd overall. A damn shame.

 

[jens_attacks]

i voted for valverde because i want him to podium even if i feel the frenchies will fly for this one especially papy peraud

normally, tony wins, nibali second with this form

 

[zombo10]

The "Panzerwagen" got also new wheels for the TT in le Tour de France!

https://twitter.com/GuidoScheeren/status/492604277303832577

 

[cineteq]

Nibali to pass Valverde

This is quite likely.

 

[jaylew]

I'm going to stand in for DekkerT and say that Dumoulin deserves to be in the poll.

 

[Piti4Podiums]

I hope you are right. Also, Pinot will start AFTER Valverde. Huge advantage. And Pinot looks fresher.

I do not think this is that much of an advantage for either Péraud or Pinot, as both will have to put out a 100% to bid for 2nd, no matter what Valverde's time will be like.

 

[ILovecycling]

Nothing can stop him

 

[Kwibus]

I'm going to stand in for DekkerT and say that Dumoulin deserves to be in the poll.

I was checking the thread if someone allready mentioned this indeed.

The entire year Dumoulin is coming closer and closer to Tony Martin in the TT's. He is consistently 2nd behind Tony Martin and he's just 23(maybe 24 allready). He made a big jump this year and if he can continue his progress he will be a serious challenger for Martin the upcoming years.

I voted other because of him, allthough that's more hope. I expect that he's actually quite fatigued as he probably wasted too much energy this TdF instead of saving himself from the start unless he actually had an opportunity.

 

[Kwibus]

Tony Martin will probably win allthough I do think Nibali will seriously challenge his time and if there are changing weather conditions that favour the GC riders it's more likely that Nibali will win the TT.

 

[Weapons of @ss Destruction]

Not that I'm pegging him for the win (I'll go with the common sense TonyM pick there) but I think the dark horse in this field that I haven't seen on anyone's top 3 or top 5 lists so far is former world ITT silver medalist Svein Tuft, who has been able to sit back pretty comfortably conserving energy for a lot of stages now not having OGE really pushing for any specific outcomes. I'll put him on my list for a top 5, maybe even top 3.

 

[roundabout]

Tony Martin will probably win allthough I do think Nibali will seriously challenge his time and if there are changing weather conditions that favour the GC riders it's more likely that Nibali will win the TT.

No. Just no.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Martin
Nibali + 0.11
Someone else + 3.25

 

[Dr. Juice]

Are some here drunk or high?
Nibali to beat Panzerwagen in a 54 km TT with mostly 2-3 % false flats where Martin will use 58-11? Apart from the last 10 km containing that little climb and descent where Nibali can maintain the gap, it's a little up and down but nothing serious.
In the first week he would lose 2:30 at least. Freshness play a big part yes...but it would be awesome if he comes within 1:30 minutes. Expect Nibali to lose around 2 minutes. Somewhere around 4-5th place.
Pinot + 5:00
Valverde + 4:40
Peraud + 2:30

 

[cineteq]

Are some here drunk or high?
Nibali to beat Panzerwagen in a 54 km TT with mostly 2-3 % false flats where Martin will use 58-11? Apart from the last 10 km containing that little climb and descent where Nibali can maintain the gap, it's a little up and down but nothing serious.
In the first week he would lose 2:30 at least. Freshness play a big part yes...but it would be awesome if he comes within 1:30 minutes. Expect Nibali to lose around 2 minutes. Somewhere around 4-5th place.
Pinot + 5:00
Valverde + 4:40
Peraud + 2:30

Totally on the money. You forgot TJ-VG.

 

[Sciocco]

How much start time between riders? A "how many riders can Tony Martin pass?" poll would be fun.

Nibali and JC Peraud crash out of TdF. Valverde overtakes Pinot by two seconds. Dedicates win to his "lost" seasons...

GC after ITT
1. nibali
2. jcp
3. valverde
4. pinot
5. tjvg
6. bardet
7-9. don't care
10. zubeldia

 

[Nuash65]

Pinot + 5:00

Pinot is going to shock you!

 

[Kwibus]

No. Just no.

It's a GT. It's not only about being a good time trialist, it's also about recovery.
The past has shown us (clinic or not) that GC riders usually ride better TT's at the end of a GT. Probably not better, but not worse than they usually do, while pure TT riders tend to perform worse.

I still expect Martin to win, but I said that if the weather conditions will favour the riders that start later it's likely that Nibali will win this TT... or who knows, maybe Peraud. I expect Nibali simply because he's in stellar form and in the Giro his TT was also very good.

 

[Dr. Juice]

Pinot is going to shock you!

I hope so. I don't like Wheelverde. In a real ondulated parcours I would say yes Pinot could suprise. TT's 20-35 km long and 1-2 hills.
But I think on this parcours he isn't ready yet. He could surprise by beating Valverde and not losing that much to Peraud, but can't imagine the gap to Tony to be significantly under 4 minutes (3:45 - 4 if he makes that little step forward, which is not out of question).

TJ-VG I did not include in my predictions. He should do a respectable performance, nothing spectacular and pass Bardet. Nothing noteworthy.

 

[manafana]

from what i know and see I would think Pinot can hold off valverde in this.

 

[Tonton]

I do not think this is that much of an advantage for either Péraud or Pinot, as both will have to put out a 100% to bid for 2nd, no matter what Valverde's time will be like.

Who said "knowledge is power"? You can match your opponent, maybe take a slight advantage, and break his morale when he realizes that he can't create a gap.

AND, by starting just ahead of Nibali, Pinot may be passed with 5K or so left and use the Nib to set a great pace to the finish.

I like Pinot's chances.

 

[Jerkovin]

Really want Nibs to win this. 5 stages would be such an awesome middle finger to anyone who tries to put asterisks on his Tour win. Well, 4 stages already are.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I'm going to stand in for DekkerT and say that Dumoulin deserves to be in the poll.

Yeah, they put freaking Jan Barta and Navardauskas in there but not the only one coming even close to Tony this year.

 

[Fight.The.Power]

I know Netserk dissapproves of polls on stage threads.

Personally I can't understand the need for a poll when everyone is bound to vote in the same way and vote for Panzerwagon as I did.

If you must do a poll Jancouver, at least exclude Martin to make it a little bit interesting.

 

[Jancouver]

I know Netserk dissapproves of polls on stage threads.

Personally I can't understand the need for a poll when everyone is bound to vote in the same way and vote for Panzerwagon as I did.

If you must do a poll Jancouver, at least exclude Martin to make it a little bit interesting.

I agree. My bad. For whatever reason I thought people would give other riders more chances since the course is not exactly flat.

Well, next time we can do a poll for 2nd place but that would discriminate those who dont believe in Tony Martin.

It is what it is. Personally I think the poll always makes the thread more entertaining.