2014 Tour de France, Stage 12: Bourg-en-Bresse–Saint-Etienne (185.5 Km)

[Afrank]

2014 Tour de France, Stage 12: Bourg-en-Bresse–Saint-Etienne (185.5 Km)

Stage overview and prediction via rghysens:

Overview :
This stage heads generally in a southwestern direction, to the city of Saint-Etienne, that already hosted the Tour 22 times before. Not only the Tour pays frequent visits to “the city of bicycles and weapons”, also Paris-Nice often passes by. In the edition of 2006 Floyd Landis absolutely destroyed the field towards Saint-Etienne, creating gaps in one stage that were bigger than those in the whole of Paris-Nice this year. With that in mind, one can certainly say that this is actually the first stage with an absolutely underwhelming design. Immediately east of Saint-Etienne there are some 1st category climbs (Crêt d’Oeillon, Croix de Chaubouret) that could have been used without creating an ultra-long stage, but instead ASO decided to use some long false flats and label it as climbs. Maybe 30 years ago 15km @ 3.3% or 9.8km @ 2.9% could create some gaps, but nowadays very few cyclists will break much sweat on them.

Predictions:
I could really see the sprinters fighting for stage win. The long false flatse in the last 50km will certainly favor the peloton over a breakaway group. Maybe the final will be too difficult for the worst climbing among them (Kittel), but it should be no problem for Degenkolb, Kristoff or Greipel and maybe even Cavendish.

 

[classicomano]

Sagan, OBVIOUSLY.

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Almost identical to today, with probably similar results.

 

[melkemugg]

Sagan is the obvious one. Again. But hes a very marked man.

 

[Afrank]

I want to see the riders race and attack each other for the stage win up and down the climb. Sagan to do his usual thing, but have everyone not let him get away yet again. Then for Sagan to get so ****ed off he attacks full force, drop everyone on his wheel, and win the stage solo.

 

[nuvolablu]

Almost identical to today, with probably similar results.

Look again at the profile. Today we had 35 guys in the front group, tomorrow is much easier. 2nd win for Greipel

 

[Escarabajo]

Cavendish for the win.

 

[Escarabajo]

Stage overview and prediction via rghysens:

Cavendish for the win.

 

[Dr. Juice]

The second climb at 2,9 % is ridiculous. It's completely regular, always around those 3 %. The peleton will do it at 38 km/h.
The first one should be tougher. 3,3 % average but has a flat part 1/3 into the climb and seems to have a couple of more difficult km at 5-6 % after that. The last part seems like a regular 3,5- 4 %.
The could drop Kittel. I'm sure they whole peloton wants to get rid of Kittel. The peleton will go like crazy on that climb and well...let's see if there are more victims or the peleton breaks up into groups.

 

[Escarabajo]

Look again at the profile. Today we had 35 guys in the front group, tomorrow is much easier. 2nd win for Greipel

If Greipel wins Talansky will sprint for second!!

 

[SafeBet]

Cannondale please do something sensible for once. Put a rider in the break.

 

[Catwhoorg]

Sagan to be 2nd to someone.

 

[Jerkovin]

#Pray4Peter

If he doesn't win this one, I fear he's going to commit murder. In that case, we should probably be praying for Kwiatkowski after today's glorious cockblockage.

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Look again at the profile. Today we had 35 guys in the front group, tomorrow is much easier. 2nd win for Greipel

Point taken, you're right it is easier. Not so sure about a bunch sprint though

 

[Miburo]

Cannondale please do something sensible for once. Put a rider in the break.

to what end? There's no one in their team good enough to finish it on a stage like this. They still have more chance to win with sagan

 

[BeagRigh]

10km @ <3%, not sure why that is catagorised it's basically false flat. Some good old fashioned ASO profile exaggeration going on too.

That said probably still to much for Kittel and possibly Greipel if Tony Martin and Cannondale decide they are going to ride up it at 45kmph!

 

[Pantani_lives]

Obscure Frenchman to win after long breakaway with nobody interesting. To be declared epic and heroic win in the French media.

 

[ILovecycling]

Obscure Frenchman to win after long breakaway with nobody interesting. To be declared epic and heroic win in the French media.

This is not 5 jours de dunquerque

 

[SeriousSam]

Stage looks tailor made for Sagan to put in a strong performance and secure another coveted top 5, possibly 2nd. He's probably finding out that it's more difficult to win when you can't get on Cancellara's wheel and beat him in the sprint.

 

[Pricey_sky]

I wouldn't be surprised if Greipel made it over those false flats and won. Sagans best chance was today.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Solid design of a flat stage. Enough in it to make a race just like stage 11. The heavies are in play this time however.

Bigger break this time I think, but Giant and Lotto might be able to control the gap. We shall see.

If a sprinter wins the stage he will have earned it.

I hope Greipel.

 

[SKSemtex]

I would like to see Sagan and his team doing exactly nothing till the last hill and pray that other team do the job.

Do the same tactics as in Montreal last year after the Quebec.

Unfortuantely Sagan is crazy and he allready claimed he would go for it tommorow again.

 

[Bushman]

I want to see the riders race and attack each other for the stage win up and down the climb. Sagan to do his usual thing, but have everyone not let him get away yet again. Then for Sagan to get so ****ed off he attacks full force, drop everyone on his wheel, and win the stage solo.

This.

I hope he is so filled op with anger that he will just attack all out in the descent and drop everyone.

 

[SKSemtex]

This.

I hope he is so filled op with anger that he will just attack all out in the descent and drop everyone.

No chance against motivated sprint team + dedicated Martin. Trentin is his "boy".

 

[Bushman]

No chance against motivated sprint team + dedicated Martin. Trentin is his "boy".

Actually I just responded to you in the other stage thread. Tomorrows stage probably doesn't suit aggressive racing very well, I would just love to see him ride his heart out no matter the result.

Or Else Cannondale should play it cool all day so that he will actually have a team mate by his side in the last 10 K's.