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2014 Tour de France, Stage 16: Carcassonne–Bagnères-de-Luchon (237.5 Km)

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Afrank

Afrank

Aug 16, 2011
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2014 Tour de France, Stage 16: Carcassonne–Bagnères-de-Luchon (237.5 Km)

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rghysens said:
Today’s stage is the longest of the whole Tour, and not an easy one either. The stage starts at the place of the second rest day: the city of Carcassonne, with its UNESCO world heritage site in form of the medieval walled town. For about 150km this stage skirts the foothills of the Pyrenees, with only 2 minor categorized climbs. Then the Col de Portet d’Aspet awaits the riders, which they have to climb from its easiest side. The very steep descent is followed by some rolling roads and the not too difficult Col des Ares. Its descent and some more rolling roads brings us (well, the cyclists in the Tour, that is) at the foot of the main difficulty of the day: the HC Port de Balès.

Since the paving of its southern slope in 2007 it has already been included 3 times in the tour (2007, 2010, 2012). A climb like this will always have a certain impact on the race, even more so when there’s just a fast descent on a narrow road after the summit. Just like in 2010, when Andy Schleck attacked right before the top, but saw his chain dropping off, to be countered by Contador.

Predictions:
A breakaway to establish itself in the first hour, building a big lead and contesting the stage victory. Vicenzo Nibali to try something in the descent.
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General Classification after Stage 15
1. NIBALI, Vincenzo (ASTANA) 66:49:37
2. VALVERDE BELMONTE, Alejandro (MOVISTAR) + 4:37
3. BARDET, Romain (AG2R LA MONDIALE) + 4:50
4. PINOT, Thibaut (FDJ.fr) + 5:06
5. VAN GARDEREN, Tejay (BMC RACING) + 5:49
6. PERAUD, Jean-Christophe (AG2R LA MONDIALE) + 6:08
7. MOLLEMA, Bauke (BELKIN) + 8:33
8. KONIG, Leopold (NETAPP - ENDURA) + 9:32
9. TEN DAM, Laurens (BELKIN) + 10:01
10. ROLLAND, Pierre (EUROPCAR) + 10:48
 
BYOP88

BYOP88

May 26, 2009
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Break to take the stage. Nibali to ride away from the other GC guys if he wants to ride away from them.
 
maxmartin

maxmartin

May 19, 2011
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Jspear said:
This is Nibali's stage to show his descending skills.
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nah. it is not the time or the place to showing off or take extra risk, it is just immature. He will take the Mountain top finish stage in the next few days.
 
jaylew

jaylew

Mar 19, 2009
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cineteq said:
The argument if he would've won or not the Tour with CF and AC.
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And him winning a stage that ends with a descent is going to settle that? :confused:

People are going to be arguing about that for the next year. Nothing that happens the rest of this Tour is going to change that. Personally, I think Nibs will be a great and deserving champ but if you ask me if I think he would have beaten a healthy Froome and AC my answer would be no.
 
maxmartin

maxmartin

May 19, 2011
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jaylew said:
And him winning a stage that ends with a descent is going to settle that? :confused:

People are going to be arguing about that for the next year. Nothing that happens the rest of this Tour is going to change that. Personally, I think Nibs will be a great and deserving champ but if you ask me if I think he would have beaten a healthy Froome and AC my answer would be no.
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will Nibali beat Tony in the final ITT change your point of view?
 
jaylew

jaylew

Mar 19, 2009
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Not at all. It's not a flat TT and it comes at the end of 3 weeks. Nibali is absolutely the strongest guy in the race and the strongest GC guys very often out-perform TT specialists in 3rd week TTs. And if that happens, I would assume AC and Froome would have done the same. In fact, I picked Froome to win the TT before the race (see great grand tour game thread), not Martin.
 
maxmartin

maxmartin

May 19, 2011
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jaylew said:
Not at all. It's not a flat TT and it comes at the end of 3 weeks. Nibali is absolutely the strongest guy in the race and the strongest GC guys very often out-perform TT specialists in 3rd week TTs. And if that happens, I would assume AC and Froome would have done the same. In fact, I picked Froome to win the TT before the race (see great grand tour game thread), not Martin.
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that is my point, most people already made up their minds what would or would not happen if AC or Froom stayed in the race. And noting will change their minds. So we should not waste time or energy to argue this pointless question. No one can prove an alternative reality.
 
jaylew

jaylew

Mar 19, 2009
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maxmartin said:
that is my point, most people already made up their minds what would or would not happen if AC or Froom stayed in the race. And noting will change their minds. So we should not waste time or energy to argue this pointless question. No one can prove an alternative reality.
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Agreed. I'm going to try to step back from that argument. And I'm staying out of that new Nibs/Froome/Contador thread.
 
Jspear

Jspear

Feb 23, 2014
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maxmartin said:
well then your strategy about the game is slightly off:p ;)
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Yes it seems off now. When I picked him to win this stage, AC and Froome where still alive and well. I figured since they were going to kill him in the mountains, he would need a stage like this to gain a little time. :D :p
 
maxmartin

maxmartin

May 19, 2011
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Jspear said:
Yes it seems off now. When I picked him to win this stage, AC and Froome where still alive and well. I figured since they were going to kill him in the mountains, he would need a stage like this to gain a little time. :D :p
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some one said the descent was not technical or difficult at all, see you should do more homework to study the parcourse.:p
 
BlurryVII

BlurryVII

Feb 21, 2014
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cineteq said:
Agree 100%. This is a must win if he wants to end once and for all, the already silly Froome/Contador comparisons.
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It is very much known that descents are decisive in GTs outcome :rolleyes:
It's the favourite terrain for those who can't follow uphill.

Perhaps Froome would struggle a bit following Nibali in a descent, but certainly not Contador if he decides to go for it as well.
 
Kwibus

Kwibus

May 25, 2010
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BlurryVII said:
It is very much known that descents are decisive in GTs outcome :rolleyes:
It's the favourite terrain for those who can't follow uphill.

Perhaps Froome would struggle a bit following Nibali in a descent, but certainly not Contador if he decides to go for it as well.
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Descents should also be a deciding matter in GT's. The fact that they are rarely used last years is just dissapointing.
 
D

Dr. Juice

Jun 5, 2014
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Finally the finish is after a descent from a difficult climb. Even though it's pretty fast and not too technical.
I suppose they will attack Pinot. If you looked carefully, he isn't bad from a technical point of view (never has been), but is scared from high speed. When he loses time - always in the high speed part. Does not like to do 90-100 km/h.

Nibali will let a break go. He needs the team to control the Pla d'Adet stage (where he could murder everyone). If someone attacks him, he will play with them.
 
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