2014 Tour de France, Stage 16: Carcassonne–Bagnères-de-Luchon (237.5 Km)

[Jerkovin]

Yeah, it would be fun if Nibali tried to attack but, regardless of his descending skills, there's no way he's reckless enough to do so.

 

[maxmartin]

Yeah, it would be fun if Nibali tried to attack but, regardless of his descending skills, there's no way he's reckless enough to do so.

for sure, we already saw the result of this behavior

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

There is NO WAY Nibali should take any unnecessary risks on the descent. None. Zero. He's leading the Tour by close to 5 minutes. He has nothing to prove right now. He's shown he's a better climber than everyone and can TT as well or better than any of his challengers.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

You people = boooring

Nibbles to take 3 minutes uphill and then 4 more minutes downhill

 

[damian13ster]

Okay, my second homer pick of this tour:

Kwiatkowski/Rogers for the win, unless pure climber gets in the break. I think descent is long enough for them to catch not in best shape/tired from sprinting for KOM points Purito.

My first homer pick of the tour was Majka to take stage 13. Came close :/

 

[cineteq]

Nibbles to take 3 minutes uphill and then 4 more minutes downhill

Although tactically wrong, we're all waiting to see that. That's his strength against any GC guy, and he should take adavantage of that. Plus you'll never sure when you're going to crash or get sick.

 

[Netserk]

Rui Costa FTW.

 

[Frosty]

Geraint Thomas to ride for himself for once and take the win.

 

[sir fly]

I'm also expecting some action on the descent, but more like a sequel of the Izoard descent.
The same protagonists and goals.

 

[murali]

I'm also expecting some action on the descent, but more like a sequel of the Izoard descent.
The same protagonists and goals.

i agree.

Nibali just needs to keep up with the top-5 in GC.

 

[hfer07]

How technical is that descend?

 

[screaming fist]

How technical is that descend?

It's pretty easy and straight forward, I think. Fast, though.

 

[cineteq]

Geraint Thomas to ride for himself for once and take the win.

He should have been plan B for Sky after Froome crashed out. The guy's been a horse all race long. But as in plan B to win stages.

 

[offbyone]

nah. it is not the time or the place to showing off or take extra risk, it is just immature. He will take the Mountain top finish stage in the next few days.

Yeah if anything it is time for Nibali to start show casing his wheel sucking skills. There is no reason for him to do anything else.

 

[Tank Engine]

It looks like a stage for a break. I don't think Saxo will try to send Majka out front. Rogers looks like a better bet for this stage. They'll try and stop Purito getting in a break (unless Rogers is there as well, Roche doesn't look in great form). I'm not sure that Purito would be that keen to get in a break , there are too many kilometers before any real points are available. He'd waste a lot of energy and Saxo would go all out on Wednesday to bury his chances. Looking at the profile it's not great territory for him to get into an early break anyway.

I guess the gurnmeister, Tommy V will go all out to get in the break, but he doesn't seem to be in great shape. I'd love Thomas, Kwiatek or Brice Feillu to get in the break, but in their cases, a lot depends on how strongly teams defend their positions in the top 10. Of the remaining stages, it's their best chance for a stage victory though (although descending is not G's strong point, not sure about Feillu).

Thinking about it, Sagan might be a good bet. He's got a good chance of getting into the break (no GC ambitions, the points jersey is wrapped up - assuming he gets to Paris, others in the break think they've got a chance against him, but he might stay close enough on the climb to reel them in on the descent, he can take it relatively easy on the next two days).

My heart is thus with a Sagan win, but logic says that Rogers is more likely.

As for the GC, probably the most likely thing to happen will be for AG2R to attack Pinot en masse on the descent. Pinot will probably try a pre-emptive strike on the ascent. Nibali will control proceedings and Valverde will form a temporary alliance with the AG2R guys, possibly along with TJ.

 

[Kragbaek]

Rui Costa is decent downhill right? I could see him making a breakaway of some kind.

Otherwise: Purito/Majka/Rogers/Kwiat/Tommy V/Spilak/Thomas

Tank Engine, why do you think Pinot will try so much?

 

[maxmartin]

Rui Costa is decent downhill right? I could see him making a breakaway of some kind.

Otherwise: Purito/Majka/Rogers/Kwiat/Tommy V/Spilak/Thomas

Tank Engine, why do you think Pinot will try so much?

Is he still sick? According to Horner and Lampre trainer interview, they are saying french guys are already over their limits, they are expecting French guys implode in the third week and expect Costa to move up a few spots. Not sure how much I will believe into that.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Majka to go for the Polkadot jersey seems obvious, if it all comes together up along the Port de Balès. Not necessarily for the stage win.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

According to Horner and Lampre trainer interview, they are saying french guys are already over their limits, they are expecting French guys implode in the third week

Yeah Peraud is still a bit young. I'd be surprised if he can really last three weeks at such a tender age. I wouldn't be surprised if he DNS though actually, like Simon Yates. Gotta be careful with this young guys. Give him another 5 years or so and some beetroot juice and he'll be there.

 

[Escarabajo]

Yeah Peraud is still a bit young. I'd be surprised if he can really last three weeks at such a tender age. I wouldn't be surprised if he DNS though actually, like Simon Yates. Gotta be careful with this young guys. Give him another 5 years or so and some beetroot juice and he'll be there.

5 years???

Based on what?

This is the new mentality that Bob Roll, Phil and Paul are trying to communicate to everyone. But I still don't see the reasoning. Either you have or you don't. It always been like that. Human evolution just don't change over a span of 20 years.

 

[Tank Engine]

Tank Engine, why do you think Pinot will try so much?

I don't think he will try that much on the ascent, but if they don't go too hard up the climb, Ag2R will be there in numbers, while FdJ will not. I know that teammates aren't much of a help on a descent (however it does make it easier for one or two of them to slip away). Anyway, I think it would be better for Pinot to have at least some of those guys behind him at the top.

 

[veji11]

I don't think he will try that much on the ascent, but if they don't go too hard up the climb, Ag2R will be there in numbers, while FdJ will not. I know that teammates aren't much of a help on a descent (however it does make it easier for one or two of them to slip away). Anyway, I think it would be better for Pinot to have at least some of those guys behind him at the top.

it does make sense.

 

[The Barb]

This is the stage Rogers has targeted since Contador went out. His form seems close to if not at the same level as the Giro. He's clearly the top chance.

 

[maxmartin]

Hope SKY can also do something creative in this stage, it will be such a shame if they could not win a single stage, tick tick.

 

[sir fly]

Hope SKY can also do something creative in this stage, it will be such a shame if they could not win a single stage, tick tick.

They could take D125...