2014 Tour de France, Stage 18: Pau–Hautacam (145.5 Km)

[The Barb]

So if Majka goes over the Tourmalet first he wins polka even if J-Rod wins stage and si second on Tourmalet ??

No. Majka leads Rodriguez by 37.

If Majka is first over the Tourmalet first and Rodriguez second then the lead would be 42. Rodriguez could then only beat him by winning the stage (50 points) and Majka being outside the top 10. Even if Rodriguez finished 2nd on the stage (40 points) and Majka outside the top 10 it wouldn't be enough.

That scenario is of course incredibly unlikely. Purito's form isn't good enough to win the stage.

Majka leads Nibali by 31 points. Assuming Nibali picks up no points on the Tourmalet (which is probable) Majka can gain an unassailable lead over him by being first or 2nd over the Tourmalet.

All of which adds up (literally) to Majka being virtually certain to win the polka dots. He should treat the Tourmalet as the finish line of the stage, get over first or second, and then he can soft pedal to the finish if he likes.

Which is largely the reason I think Majka is too short as a second favourite for the stage.

This is Nibali's day.

 

[Carols]

Yeah, i mean it is not like he gained 1:16 on aru in the flat itt an came in 4th

Yeah my bad....I was only remembering the last TT when he was caught from behind.....Old people have bad memories quite often

 

[The Barb]

I should add, the only way I could see Majka losing the polka dots is if the break is small (say, five riders) so Nibali goes over the Tourmalet in perhaps 7th (8 points). On that scenario even if Majka were first over the Tourmalet (25 points) the gap would be 48 points, which Nibali could overcome by winning the stage and Majka being outside of the top ten. The later part of this is not inconceivable. but the thought that there would be only five or so riders in the break pretty much is.

So yeah, Majka wins KOTM.

 

[willbick]

Man the tour is a long old beast. Seems a long time ago Kittel winning that uphill sprint in Harrogate!

 

[manafana]

Yeah the Majka talk is a bit much to do it back to back when he will be digging in big time with a focus on getting over the Tourmalet.

Pinot should enjoy this stage one downhill to deal with which isn't overly stressful.

 

[skidmark]

Dunno who will win the stage, but I predict that Valverde will scrappily hang in to yoyo back to his main rivals and keep second place, only to get caught behind in a split on stage 19 to lose 8 minutes and finish in 9th place.

 

[Frosty]

Katusha might be better off forgetting about j-rod's chances in the KoM and concentrating on giving Kristoff as good a chance as possible on Friday and Sunday?

 

[Piti4Podiums]

Regarding how many problems Valverde obviously has in the mountains, it's quite a pleasure to see that the Movistar Team is finally there for him in full strength.

I hope that he can hang on to 2nd or at least a podium spot so we can finally close that matter and let Quintana go full *** at Tour 2015.

 

[difdauf]

Dunno who will win the stage, but I predict that Valverde will scrappily hang in to yoyo back to his main rivals and keep second place, only to get caught behind in a split on stage 19 to lose 8 minutes and finish in 9th place.

Wow you are so pervert !

 

[SeriousSam]

That would be cruel and undeserved. After all the bad luck he's had in the Tour I hope he'll be on the podium in Paris.

 

[hfer07]

For the sake of the show- I'd to see Papi Horner to 53x12 it all the way up to Hautacam, ala Riis - it'd be hilarious

 

[Koba80]

Who's that young pup in the young rider's jersey?

 

[Escarabajo]

No. Majka leads Rodriguez by 37.

If Majka is first over the Tourmalet first and Rodriguez second then the lead would be 42. Rodriguez could then only beat him by winning the stage (50 points) and Majka being outside the top 10. Even if Rodriguez finished 2nd on the stage (40 points) and Majka outside the top 10 it wouldn't be enough.

That scenario is of course incredibly unlikely. Purito's form isn't good enough to win the stage.

Majka leads Nibali by 31 points. Assuming Nibali picks up no points on the Tourmalet (which is probable) Majka can gain an unassailable lead over him by being first or 2nd over the Tourmalet.

All of which adds up (literally) to Majka being virtually certain to win the polka dots. He should treat the Tourmalet as the finish line of the stage, get over first or second, and then he can soft pedal to the finish if he likes.

Which is largely the reason I think Majka is too short as a second favourite for the stage.

This is Nibali's day.

+1.

Pretty much nailed it.

 

[TomekA]

I still feel bad when I see the name "Hautacam". In 2000 on the first mountain stage I expected that Ullrich and Pantani would show Armstrong where he belongs. The outcome was so shocking for me that I literally didn't know what was happening. I never ever forget that stage.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

There are enough bumps during first 50km to get a significant break going.
Guys like JVDB, Schleck, Trofimov etc should have another go, but they need strong Rouleurs to support the effort initially. Or they can wait for Toumalet.

Vasil, Thomas and Nieve would be a good trio as well. They could take Porte with them. No point for him to hang around the Nibali group all day. Of course one of these must have the legs to finish the deal off.

Anyway I expect Nibali to boss the favorites group again today. Alone or with team mates, doesn't matter.

 

[Sasquatch]

Michael Rogers

 

[Pricey_sky]

If Porte has the legs he really needs to get his **** into the break, not sure he has any sort of form though. Thomas said he really struggled yesterday too and really can't see Kiri being strong enough for 3 epic rides in a row. Nieve rode well yesterday so maybe he can do something to save Sky's Tour, although I get the impression since Froome said he will be targeting the Vuelta Sky have shifted attention to that.

 

[manafana]

going be interesting day for sure, last chance for a big win a chance to be known as the new guy on Hautacam or at least we can hope for as much.

Interesting to see who shows ambition.

 

[arvc40]

Nibali going to want this one today. See how it works out by time they reach the climb

 

[Zam_Olyas]

Hautacam previous winners

1994 Luc Leblanc
1996 Bjarne Riis
2000 Javier Otxoa
2008 Juan José Cobo
As everyone is aware Piepoli crossed the line first but you know things can turn out different in this sport of ours. The most heart wrenching for me at the Hautacam is in 1994 when Indurain caught Pantani with 2.5 klicks to go.The climb up Hautacam start altitude is 431m. It is 14.5km to the ski station at Hautacam. The climb will start to hurt when the riders reach the 13 km to go sign.The name comes from the Gascon language and means "highland" while Tourmalet means "long mountain".

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Hautacam previous winners

1994 Luc Leblanc
1996 Bjarne Riis
2000 Javier Otxoa
2008 Juan José Cobo
As everyone is aware Piepoli crossed the line first but you know things can turn out different in this sport of ours. The most heart wrenching for me at the Hautacam is in 1994 when Indurain caught Pantani with 2.5 klicks to go.The climb up Hautacam start altitude is 431m. It is 14.5km to the ski station at Hautacam. The name comes from the Gascon language and means highland.

thanks.

From '08:
1 PIEPOLI LeonardoScott - American Beef100 4:19:27
1 COBO ACEBO Juan JoseScott - American Beef70,,
2 SCHLECK FränkCSC ProTeam500:28
4 KOHL BernhardGerolsteiner401:06
3 EFIMKIN VladimirAG2R La Mondiale322:05
4 RICCO RiccardoScott - American Beef262:17
5 SASTRE CANDIL CarlosCSC ProTeam22,,
6 EVANS CadelSilence - Lotto18,,
7 MENCHOV DenisRabobank ProTeam14,,
8 VANDE VELDE ChristianTeam Garmin - Chipotle10,,
9 DUENAS NEVADO MoisesBarloworld82:27

Very nice list.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

1924 Col du Tourmalet

 

[shades1]

this should of been an epic stage of the tour but its going to be like watching champions league football without real madrid and barcelona :-(

 

[jens_attacks]

the big one, the infamous one. can't wait

movistar will send half of squad up front. ag2r with mythical climber ben gastauer will destroy valverde on tourmalet but he will probably come back on hautacam. i just hope valverde can take the 3rd place.

europcar probably again all in the attack. this again will be a very good stage

 

[leon993]

Mick Rogers ftw sounds plausible. Majka trying to secure mountain jersey will make him stay with Rodriquez. One break will be in front and they might not be caught by a weak Astana team.