2014 Tour de France, Stage 5: Ypres – Arenberg Porte du Hainaut: 156km

[Sciocco]

I can see everyone is so excited for stage 6.

 

[maxmartin]

Yeah, but there's a difference between 'doing well' and 'being better than the specialists'.

For example, Wiggins making the final group in PR - widely considered to be a great ride; 'doing well.'

But imagine him dropping Sagan or Cance on the pave! It seems a ridiculous statement.

The way Nibali rode demands that we consider that kind of possibility.

I personally don't think any other GC rider could do it - Nibali has always had that classics kind of pedigree. Would be great to see him have a crack at Flanders instead of LBL......

Nibali hang on his dear life of birdsong's wheel who by the way is the world champion of mountain bike. No wonder Astana is doing well on the cobbles.

 

[Publicus]

It's going to get real interesting. Nibali will have to watch AC, Talansky, Costa, Porte, Tejay, VDB, Kwiatkowski, Valverde and all attacks from these dude's teams.

I can easily imagine a stage similar to the last stage of the Duphine where big favorites are caught looking at each other while others are attacking up the road.

As long as ALL of those guys are racing to win, and not simply to make the podium, then I agree. It should be easy enough for these teams to work over Astana pretty easily (especially on Monday), but my guess is they are all going to sit back and expect Tinkoff to do all of the work and try to benefit (a la Katusha and Movistar last year). I hope, for all of our sakes, that I am wrong.

 

[maxmartin]

As long as none of those guys are racing to win, and not simply to make the podium, then I agree. It should be easy enough for these teams to work over Astana pretty easily (especially on Monday), but my guess is they are all going to sit back and expect Tinkoff to do all of the work and try to benefit (a la Katusha and Movistar last year). I hope, for all of our sakes, that I am wrong.

you are spot on, I just said a few posts ago, they are not racing for the win but to protect meaningless 4th, 5th position.

 

[pastronef]

2k posts, 200k views for a week one flat stage. New record, surely?

had Froome not retired, and ended there with Contador or even further, we would've got even more posts and views.

 

[Sciocco]

had Froome not retired, and ended there with Contador or even further, we would've got even more posts and views.

4th highest post count for a TDF stage and 5th highest for a GT stage on the forum.

 

[pastronef]

For Sky it is not bad at all, and Geraint Thomas deserves huge kudos for his ride today helping Porte.

The main problem is that the Sky train has seriously derailed. I'm not sure Sky knows how to ride any other way, but who will be his mountain leadouts? He'll have Nieve as his right hand man, which is very good, but who else will be there to help at the end of stages? Who will be there consistently?

now Astana and Tinkoff-Saxo have to make the race. Nibali and Contador are the favourites and team leaders and their trains are in charge of the race. Porte is the back up plan, so he does not need the full Sky train (which is a bit weak)
He rode a good race today, with the great help of Thomas, and he distanced Conador. thank god he's got Nieve (and Thomas). we'll see on Monday how good Richie is.

Same thing for Talansky, great race, he had Bauer, Langeveld and Vansummeren to help him, and then he went out alone in the final. bravo, and now fight for a podium place.

 

[Publicus]

now Astana and Tinkoff-Saxo have to make the race. Nibali and Contador are the favourites and team leaders and their trains are in charge of the race. Porte is the back up plan, so he does not need the full Sky train (which is a bit weak)
He rode a good race today, with the great help of Thomas, and he distanced Conador. thank god he's got Nieve (and Thomas). we'll see on Monday how good Richie is.

Same thing for Talansky, great race, he had Bauer, Langeveld and Vansummeren to help him, and then he went out alone in the final. bravo, and now fight for a podium place.

I don't think Astana has to do anything but defend unless they elect to give up the jersey (which if the other teams are smart, they wouldn't let that happen). I think the other teams with GC candidates have to race to win the race and not to solidify/consolidate their position relative to other GC candidates. Otherwise, this will be a repeat of last year, except Contador ends up 2nd.

 

[saneguy]

Nibali is going to find it tough. But I think he has got a good time over all the main GC guys. A bit too early though to defend the jersey. Even if he gives up the jersey I think he has shown that he is one of the top contendors for this year's TdF.

 

[Scott SoCal]

As long as ALL of those guys are racing to win, and not simply to make the podium, then I agree. It should be easy enough for these teams to work over Astana pretty easily (especially on Monday), but my guess is they are all going to sit back and expect Tinkoff to do all of the work and try to benefit (a la Katusha and Movistar last year). I hope, for all of our sakes, that I am wrong.

If you are Talansky, given the result at the Dauphine, with Froome out, you are thinking you have a very real shot to win. You are thinking barley a few weeks ago you wadded Nibali up on most of the serious climbs and you cracked Contador on the final stage.

If you are Tejay you are thinking you have a golden opportunity to podium. Same with Costa. Coming off the Swiss victory, Costa is licking his chops.

If you are AC, you have to attack Nibali and take time on everybody else.

I cannot imagine these guys are not smelling blood in the water. Nibali was not very impressive at the Dauphine. That he rode really well today does not mean he's gonna kill it on the HC climbs. Maybe he comes good... Dunno. If I'm Talansky, I'm felling pretty optimistic right now.

 

[maxmartin]

If you are Talansky, given the result at the Dauphine, with Froome out, you are thinking you have a very real shot to win. You are thinking barley a few weeks ago you wadded Nibali up on most of the serious climbs and you cracked Contador on the final stage.

If you are Tejay you are thinking you have a golden opportunity to podium. Same with Costa. Coming off the Swiss victory, Costa is licking his chops.

If you are AC, you have to attack Nibali and take time on everybody else.

I cannot imagine these guys are not smelling blood in the water. Nibali was not very impressive at the Dauphine. That he rode really well today does not mean he's gonna kill it on the HC climbs. Maybe he comes good... Dunno. If I'm Talansky, I'm felling pretty optimistic right now.

Dude, Dauphnie for most people is only a preparation race, no one take it too seriously. And AG and TJVF know very well. Did any one you mentioned above actually climbed better than VN in a real GT?

 

[Scott SoCal]

Dude, Dauphnie for most people is only a preparation race, no one take it too seriously. And AG and TJVF know very well. Did any one you mentioned above actually climbed better than VN in a real GT?

Wel we are gonna find out aren't we?

If you think that AC and Froome weren't racing at the Dauphine then you simply were not paying attention.

The last stage was full gas from AC once he started chasing and Nibali didn't have it.

Now maybe through whatever happens to big GC guys right before big GT's Nibali will kill everyone on the climbs.

At any rate, I guarantee you AC took the Dauphine very, very seriously.

 

[maxmartin]

Wel we are gonna find out aren't we?

If you think that AC and Froome weren't racing at the Dauphine then you simply were not paying attention.

The last stage was full gas from AC once he started chasing and Nibali didn't have it.

Now maybe through whatever happens to big GC guys right before big GT's Nibali will kill everyone on the climbs.

At any rate, I guarantee you AC took the Dauphine very, very seriously.

AC ans Froom are racing, but Nibali is not. That is my point. Nibali choose not to waste energy on the stupid Dauphine but focus on fine tuning his own form riding at his own pace. Right now AC does not have the legs to match Nibali, either he is really aiming to peak at the third week or he peaked too early wasting too much energy on Dauphine. AG as well, on the first mountain stage, we will see AT drop significantly while TJVG rides well, mark my word.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

AC ans Froom are racing, but Nibali is not. That is my point. Nibali choose not to waste energy on the stupid Dauphine but focus on fine tuning his own form riding at his own pace. .

Nibali got a letter
time for Tinkov that get writing.

 

[jaylew]

What a performance by Astana, especially Fuglsang. Maybe he should (and this is no joke no matter how silly it may sound) actually give it a shot in Ronde Van Vlaanderen and Roubaix.

I was really surprised by his performance but then I remembered he was a former mountainbike world champion. Obviously not the same thing but he's obviously comfortable getting down and dirty.

Your assessment of the GC riders is a bit harsh and selective I think. For me, apart from Nibali, Kwiatkowski, JVDB and Talansky would be winners, as were Pinot and Bardet (as everyone expected those to do worse).

Contador is the only major loser, together with top-10 contenders like Schleck, Horner etc. And Froome, obviously.

Seriously? With Froome going out, I'd say Contador was the biggest winner today, with the possible exception of Nibali. You could easily argue his chance of winning the Tour got better after today, not worse.

Even worse carnage than I expected. Alien vs Predator duel is unfortunately over. Alien is killed and Predator is seriously hurt. Nibali stamps his authority on the race. How the hell was he better than Cancellara? Contador looses 2 and half minutes, which is really bad for him. Nibali is the favourite now. I am sure Contador will attack wildly in the mountains to reduce the gap (it could be very exciting to watch) but Nibali showed his form today and it could be hard to drop him in the mountains and gain 3 minutes.

There's also a TT, don't forget.

If Contador wins the Tour, I don't think he will do the Vuelta. He'd be arriving into it tired, with the Tour in his legs, and an absolutely terrible team. Why risk taking a beating from a rested Froome and Quintana in a race where he will have none of the advantages? Why give them a likely psychological edge next year, rather than having it himself?

I have my doubts Contador does the Vuelta whether he wins or not.

 

[pastronef]

I don't support Nibali but I was very happy to see Fuglsang having a great ride (helping Nibali gain time though )
the forum is not a great Birdsong fan page, so it was nice for once to see him go well.

 

[jaylew]

What happened to GvA, Degenkolb, and Démare? Why were they so bad?

Just read that Valverde rode the last 60k on a teammates bike after breaking his derailleur in a crash.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

What happened to GvA, Degenkolb, and Démare? Why were they so bad?

Just read that Valverde rode the last 60k on a teammates bike after breaking his derailleur in a crash.

I saw Demare crashing early (on the tarmac) and with the pace being very high, I think he was left for the dead before things got started.

Not sure about the other two.

Valverde did pretty well yesterday. Crashed twice, weak cobbles team, but still managed +2:28. Hopefully hes not too banged up.

 

[veji11]

Some thoughts:

*How different would the cobbled classics be if you had some top GC guys on form and committed to them? i.e. The way Nibali rode Sagan and Canceralla off his wheel was pretty astonishing. I can buy that Cance is not at peak - but Sagan? + Wiggins looked great at this years PR, despite the general mood of criticism leading up to it.....


*How much do you reckon Froome just lacked a bit of mental fortitude/courage vs purely physical constraints? Just seemed like he threw in the towel way too easily. I remember Cadel riding out the tour with an actual fractured wrist - lost a lot of time, but just refused to quit.

* On Nibali: he won the jersey with such class and style, and what a brilliant defence yesterday. Deserves every compliment coming his way.

* Sky need to learn chaos theory, and realise that cycling is closer to that than some linear science of order/control. How often have their classics just been an epic fail? Great to see them challenged in this way in a GT.

* On GC: just seems set up perfectly. Could end up being far more open than everyone was predicting with Froome v Contador.

All great questions !

1/ I believe the very best riders in terms of physical abilities tend to be the GC guys. They don't risk riding the flandriennes because an injury could derail their season, but just look at Wiggo on Paris Roubaix this year. I have no reason not to believe that if a Nibali or a Valverde fell in love with RVV, they could compete to win it.

2/ Froome was a dead man walking tuesday evening an he knew it. I believe he started the stage with the mental image of him dropping out of the race after the first cobble sector because the pain in his wrist would have been too hard. The rain made it happen sooner as he fell before cobbles.

3/ Nibali just rode the type of stage that builds a long lating folklore.

4/ Chaos theory is exactly what organisers want. why they have put a Giro/LBL stage on the second day, why they put the cobbles. There is a titanic divergence of interests between teams wanting to plan everything and stick to the plan, and organisers and spectators wanting drama, surprises, chaos. Survival of the fittest : this is what cycling was until the end of the 80s. It wasn't about explosion in the last K, it was about enduring pain better than the others. This is how Coppi, Merckx, Hinault won their races and this is something organisers want to see again : The winner shouldn't always be the fastest one, it should be the one who can reach the finish line first, whatever you throw at him.

5/ Yep, I am still not convinced Nibali is the strongest on the mountains, nor even one of the strongest. He might be the 3rd/4th climber in this tour. Can he hang on ?

 

[Jagartrott]

What happened to GvA, Degenkolb, and Démare? Why were they so bad?

They all crashed early and never got back in front.

 

[Cimber]

This time I made it!

 

[ciranda]

I don't support Nibali but I was very happy to see Fuglsang having a great ride (helping Nibali gain time though )
the forum is not a great Birdsong fan page, so it was nice for once to see him go well.

I like him too, cool all day yesterday. Will be fun to see in the mountains.

 

[Der Effe]

............ edit wrong thread

 

[Anderis]

I think Contador should be thankful that Talansky and Van den Broeck fell down. Had Astana, Lotto and Garmin co-operated longer, instead of each riding on it's own, Alberto's loses in GC could be more painful.

 

[Kwibus]

Since i had no internet during this stage I couldn't post earlier. I need to comment on this stage though. I just have to say it was epic epic epic.

Sorest loser must've been cancellara. Before the stage telling everyone that cobbles have every right to be in a GT and after the stage where he was invisible and apparently someone who doesnt ride wet cobbles well as he said himself he statts relling everyone that cobbles do not belong in a GT.
I always like Fabian, but his comments after this stage really made me cringe.

Astana was great, but they didnt drop specialists like cancellara and sagan. They let themselves get dropped. Kwiat likely had a mechanical so he opened a gap behind the astana riders. Boom who was amazing during the entire stage immediately jumped to the astana riders while sagan the next in line and also really not the cobbled specialist some people say he is couldnt do it or wouldnt do it with Cancellara in his wheel. Then they started to poker and the 3 astana riders + Boom were gone.


Gutted for froome, but I guess the crash before the cobbled stage was the main reason he is out.