2014 Tour de France, Stage 7: Epernay–Nancy (234.5 Km)

[icefire]

Yeah, five top 5's in five days at the Tour. What a looser.

He might become the new Rojas

 

[Frosty]

Can't see a scenario where Astana can "give" the jersey away here, unless the team gets very lucky with the break.

Astana may well want to give it away - they've had it for quite a few days and its a long way to take it to Paris. With some harder days coming up this may well be a chance to take a rest or let someone do the chasing in the next few days. Obviously if they let a break go to the finish today though then they will be obliged to ride on the front and so it will be less of a rest.

 

[veji11]

Can't see a scenario where Astana can "give" the jersey away here, unless the team gets very lucky with the break.

The Hotsteppers will attack in the finale (95% prob imo), and when it happens GC wannabees will follow, forcing the rest of the GC field with them. Result: Astana keeps the jersey.

I can see one or two GC pretenders losing a bit more time today, primarily because of bad placement and fatigue from the accumulated race action over the first week. Much harder opening than normal for the tour.

Or we get a two man break and everybody takes a rest day.

This will take its toll. Remember as well that the weather forecast is quite poor for the next 4 days. The Vosges should be ridden under clouded skies, with showers and temperatures staying below 20; and going below 15 at some points higher up. Goign downhill from a pass at 1100m where the temp is 14°C, the temperature "felt" can be quite lower. Add the humidity and rain, I can totally envision quite a few GC contenders being down with a flu / general exhaustion by the time we reach the first rest day... Just remember that the Pyrenees are 2 weeks away !! And the riders are already really really tired.

 

[Carstenbf]

How's the weather I wonder? Could be a rainy finish?

Anyways, I'm thinking Kwia vs Sagan.

So I checked the weather. Nice and sunny in Nancy. Slightest chance of rain for the final K's, but really it looks like a (well deserved) dry stage.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Astana may well want to give it away - they've had it for quite a few days and its a long way to take it to Paris. With some harder days coming up this may well be a chance to take a rest or let someone do the chasing in the next few days. Obviously if they let a break go to the finish today though then they will be obliged to ride on the front and so it will be less of a rest.

I think Astana wants to offload the jersey, but it will not be easy. Complex equation. I agree with Netserk above, Bakelants is probably their best hope.

We shall see.

 

[BeagRigh]

How technical is the last decent? I downloaded the road book but my computer is struggling to open it at the moment..

 

[Eclipse]

How technical is the last decent? I downloaded the road book but my computer is struggling to open it at the moment..

 

[Frosty]

Bakelants to take yellow from a break?

Could be a good call in terms of who would be allowed to take yellow. They have the option of putting Fuglsang in a break if anyone better than Bakelants goes for it (although obviously not if a main contender, ie Contador was there). Had been wondering if Sky would allow Thomas a chance at yellow if a big break starts forming - not much point him getting into a small break and working hard for no result. Sky's team is obviously stretched being down to 7 but they do have some good flatland riders there should something go a bit wrong for Porte. Don't think Astana would mind the jersey going to the team of a contender for one of the top places.

Roll-out starts soon so i guess we don't have long to wait.

 

[BeagRigh]

Thanks Eclipse. Looks fairly technical I can see Sagan attacking downhill like he did in TdS. If he does will be interesting to see who it draws out....

 

[Tank Engine]

I like the finish. Apart from that I think the stage is too long and flat for a long break to succeed (I can't see a strong break getting away and there will be a few teams with puncheur/sprinter types who will want to control the race).

A few puncheurs will try and do something on those hills (Chavanel, OGE particularly Gerrans - subject to injuries, I hope Slagter will be let off the leash).

However, I think it will come down to a reduced sprint. Sagan, Kristoff, Trentin and Coquard are likely to be in the hunt. I'll go for Coquard.

 

[veji11]

for example, the forecast is :
- saturday for the Gerardmer stage : 18c° on most of the route with some showers, 17°C degrees at Gerardmer with gust of 30ks. Should not rain continuously but several times during the day.
- sunday stage : 17°C with showers at the start, could go as low as 14°C on top of some climbs with a mix of clouds, sun and showers and westerly wind with gusts of up to 40ks. On top of the last big climb (le markstein) the temperature should be 15°C with risk of showers, then down to warmer Mulhouse (23°C).
- monday stage : 22°C in Mulhouse at the start but 13°C/12°C at the top of the first big climbs (petit ballon, Platzerwasel) with risk of light showers. 18°C in Chevrères (should be drier by then) and 16°C in la PLanche. Still some possible showers during the day.

All this doesn't point to some catastrophicly humid weather like on tuesday, but this should nevertheless be a tiring, wet and cold weekend of demanding stages, coming after an exhausting first week.

Then rest day the next day and the alps. I could perfectly see quite a few riders suffering a "défaillance" during the weekend in the Vosges, and more riders (some time the same ones, some time riders who did really well in the Vosges) finding themselves either sick or unable to get that extra gear in the Alps, where the weather should turn real warm !

Add to that the Pyrenees in week three and I could see some terrible attrition, with riders going from podium candidate to outside the top15 and the other way round.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Could be a good call in terms of who would be allowed to take yellow. They have the option of putting Fuglsang in a break if anyone better than Bakelants goes for it (although obviously not if a main contender, ie Contador was there). Had been wondering if Sky would allow Thomas a chance at yellow if a big break starts forming - not much point him getting into a small break and working hard for no result. Sky's team is obviously stretched being down to 7 but they do have some good flatland riders there should something go a bit wrong for Porte. Don't think Astana would mind the jersey going to the team of a contender for one of the top places.

Roll-out starts soon so i guess we don't have long to wait.

This is where complexity comes into the picture.
None of the other GC contenders wants to see Fuglsang or Thomas in the break.

We could have a soft negotiated break or a brutal battle in the morning.

 

[Kazistuta]

Bakelants, Trofimov and Gallopin are all riders willing to go on a long breakaway, and none of them are any danger in the GC (in Paris that is), so if Astana wants to get rid of the yellow jersey, one of these guys could be the new wearer IMO.

Gallopin should have a chance in the finish, if it comes down to a reduced field sprint, so he might like his chances in that scenario better though.

 

[veji11]

So I checked the weather. Nice and sunny in Nancy. Slightest chance of rain for the final K's, but really it looks like a (well deserved) dry stage.

They will start in the rain and 17°C for the first 60ks though... not terrible in itself, but you then have 180ks to race after that never going above 20°c. Still could tire/weaken some guys.

Nothing terrible, they will dry out, but it isn't a nice ride in the sun. For July the weather in this first week of the tour in France is and will be consistently miserable....

 

[veji11]

Bakelants, Trofimov and Gallopin are all riders willing to go on a long breakaway, and none of them are any danger in the GC (in Paris that is), so if Astana wants to get rid of the yellow jersey, one of these guys could be the new wearer IMO.

Gallopin should have a chance in the finish, if it comes down to a reduced field sprint, so he might like his chances in that scenario better though.

hmmm... Seeing how Gallopin won the Clasica San Sebastian and how well he did in 2012 in Porrentruy, I don't think any team with top10 aspiration would let him get the yellow jersey with some margin. He could very well hang on for a top10 finish if you give him the yellow. Not Voeckler 2011, but still a very very able rider. He was unfortunate (puncture at a bad moment) but let his chance slip on tuesday.

 

[wahl84]

No chance at all that Renshaw will be in the mix today?

 

[veji11]

for example, the forecast is :
- saturday for the Gerardmer stage : 18c° on most of the route with some showers, 17°C degrees at Gerardmer with gust of 30ks. Should not rain continuously but several times during the day.
- sunday stage : 17°C with showers at the start, could go as low as 14°C on top of some climbs with a mix of clouds, sun and showers and westerly wind with gusts of up to 40ks. On top of the last big climb (le markstein) the temperature should be 15°C with risk of showers, then down to warmer Mulhouse (23°C).
- monday stage : 22°C in Mulhouse at the start but 13°C/12°C at the top of the first big climbs (petit ballon, Platzerwasel) with risk of light showers. 18°C in Chevrères (should be drier by then) and 16°C in la PLanche. Still some possible showers during the day.

All this doesn't point to some catastrophicly humid weather like on tuesday, but this should nevertheless be a tiring, wet and cold weekend of demanding stages, coming after an exhausting first week.

Then rest day the next day and the alps. I could perfectly see quite a few riders suffering a "défaillance" during the weekend in the Vosges, and more riders (some time the same ones, some time riders who did really well in the Vosges) finding themselves either sick or unable to get that extra gear in the Alps, where the weather should turn real warm !

Add to that the Pyrenees in week three and I could see some terrible attrition, with riders going from podium candidate to outside the top15 and the other way round.

If I may commit the capital sin of autoquoting, the weather forecast for saturday is out. Not looking great in the final part : 17°C and showers..

 

[Carstenbf]

If a big break goes, who will chase?

Astana will happily let the MJ go.
With two lumps in the final, count out Lotto and Giant.

So, does OGE/Katusha/etc want to chase for 234km? You'd think it'd be easier to put a couple of guys in the break. Also think Sagan needs a quiet day. Expecting Cannondale to be represented in the break as well.

So, I foresee a big break counting prominent names ala Bakelants, Gerrans, Chavanel, with Astana half-heartedly chasing. Then again, my prediction history is not the greatest, wonder why I bother posting.

(btw, people talking about Birdsong in the break, get real!)

 

[Akuryo]

No chance at all that Renshaw will be in the mix today?

Could well be, but Trentin should be the better choice after the hills. But who knows. OPQS's tactics are often questionable.

 

[Jagartrott]

Bakelants, Trofimov and Gallopin are all riders willing to go on a long breakaway, and none of them are any danger in the GC (in Paris that is), so if Astana wants to get rid of the yellow jersey, one of these guys could be the new wearer IMO.

The mentioned riders may want to save themselves for a break tomorrow though, which would suit them better given the long run-in today.

 

[Frosty]

(btw, people talking about Birdsong in the break, get real!)

Yeah, thats the point. If anyone dangerous (lets say Mollema) tries to get into a break then getting Fuglsang into the break as well would mean that Astana wouldnt have to chase and the other teams would have to - Fuglsang was 7th last year so no-one would want to give him the chance of getting significantly more time than he already has.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Tough, dangerous, nervy stage even if it stays dry. The wind could get up in the middle of the stage and then the run-in to the final climb looks nasty

Orica Greenedge have several cards to play and should be hard to beat

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Yeah, thats the point. If anyone dangerous (lets say Mollema) tries to get into a break then getting Fuglsang into the break as well would mean that Astana wouldnt have to chase and the other teams would have to - Fuglsang was 7th last year so no-one would want to give him the chance of getting significantly more time than he already has.

again, Fuglsang will not be allowed to get into the break. Neither will Thomas. The other teams will not allow it. Its that simple.

 

[Netserk]

Elmiger and Huzarski in front with 4 riders between them and the bunch.

 

[Netserk]

The four riders in between are Pichot, Delaplace, Edet and Busche.