2014 Tour De France stage Stage 2: York – Sheffield: 201km

[karlboss]

So much for the expertise of Cycling News commentators!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Nibali (1st), Kwiatkoski (3rd), Talansky (7th), Mollema (8th), van Garderen (9th), Bardel (10th), van den Broeck (11th), Contador (13th), Rui Costa (14th)

Where is that Octopus that predicts World Cup games?

Going one by one with these terrible predictions.

Sagan 1st, Valverde second, Gerrans, jRod and Kwiatkowski all there.
Sagan 4th Valverde 17th were there and marked out of it. Gerrans had crashed, Jrod doesn't appear to care yet and Kwiatkowski was 3rd...that's hardly a terrible pick.

Several types of riders can win.
If Nibali, Van Avermaet, Kwiatkowski, Sagan, Gallopin, Albasini don't represent different types of riders to you, I'm at a loss.

Froome will give it a go, but Valverde will win, Froome did have a go, but as stated Valverde marked out of the final.

Sagan is a no brainer, other spartacus, bakalents, terpstra, and voekler will attack. Sagan was there, Voekler did attack. The other 3 names were off the mark, so perhaps the is the biggest miss thus far.

Albasini is a good pick for OGE if Gerrans is rough, Gerrans was rough and Albasini came 6th, seems a solid pick to me.

Nice course for Slagter...it was, but he didn't feature.

I'm not sure GC rider will want to race. They did and they didn't, they raced not to lose time and they raced for the stage. They didn't race for any time all of them appeared happy to leave it to Jenkins rd and a sprint and the stage as a whole delivered very little action.


I think we got what was expected, a typical first week stage fought out on the only obviously decisive feature within sight of the finish, and a reduced bunch sprint finish. The predictions only fell down, when picking the winners of that bunch finish, and the fact that Nibali would win with a well timed, intuitive attack from 1.5km out.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

What is this? Your way of saying no one on this forum knows anything because some people's predictions weren't correct? That's kind of insulting IMO.

Many of those predictions are accurate as well. Sagan placed 4th, Froome did give it a go on the climb, Voeckler attacked earlier, Albasini (who you leave out of the placings for some reason) was 6th. Gerrans was on a bad day but probably would have been closer if he hadn't crashed yesterday.

And Slagter rode off 95% of the peloton on 1 hill.. would have fought for the win without that work for Talansky

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

The predictions only fell down, when picking the winners of that bunch finish, and the fact that Nibali would win with a well timed, intuitive attack from 1.5km out.

So apart from the winner, how he would win and the minor placings they were spot on?

 

[fantomas]

A tad defensive are we?

Not at all. I'm just saying that if you are truly serious, you probably don't have much knowledge of cycling. Sagan was THE ONE obvious favourite for this stage up until Nibali's attack. Randomness often ensues in road cycling, and this was a perfect example of just that. The most likely outcome was a 20-30 man sprint, but that didn't happen. Apart from that the predictions were as expected from anyone with knowledge of the sport.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Funny that the only thing JVDB2 can do is chase down his compatriots when they attack because he is too **** to win for himself...

 

[karlboss]

So apart from the winner, how he would win and the minor placings they were spot on?

I'd say the consensus was a reduced bunch sprint with a variety of rider specialties represented. Which is exactly what happened, sure there were some variations, but to get exactly who, how, and placings is crystal ball type stuff isn't it, unbelieveably low odds.
To say the forum wasn't close on this is like saying the forum expected Cavendish to be top 3 yesterday in a bunch sprint, and then tell them how stupid they are as he limps across the line over 3 minutes down.

 

[Warhawk]

Well, the nature of the sport is such that, other than really obvious sprint stages where you just pick one of the handful of viable sprinters, if you're in the ballpark, so to speak, your prediction was pretty good.

 

[woodburn]

Are there any streams of the last few KMs? Just piecemeal stuff available on steephill right now.

 

[Jspear]

Are there any streams of the last few KMs? Just piecemeal stuff available on steephill right now.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mF10comCRE8

 

[markjohnconley]

.. but a main contender who never brings anything to the race.....

You mean he's smart.

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

I'd say the consensus was a reduced bunch sprint with a variety of rider specialties represented. Which is exactly what happened, sure there were some variations, but to get exactly who, how, and placings is crystal ball type stuff isn't it, unbelieveably low odds.
To say the forum wasn't close on this is like saying the forum expected Cavendish to be top 3 yesterday in a bunch sprint, and then tell them how stupid they are as he limps across the line over 3 minutes down.

Predicting that it would end in a reduced bunch, wow... you should put money on that next time. You predicting tomorrow will be a sprint finish?

People do seem overly defensive that their cycling knowledge has been slighted because, all in all, their predictions were off.

 

[red_flanders]

I don't have a dog in this "prediction" hunt, but reading this thread it's getting pretty ridiculous. Stating others' predictions are "pathetic" then accusing people of defensiveness because they respond is really pretty childish. Well...let's be honest it's pure trolling.

Beautiful stage today, well ridden. Let's just enjoy it and leave the ****ing contest for another day.

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

I don't have a dog in this "prediction" hunt, but reading this thread it's getting pretty ridiculous. Stating others' predictions are "pathetic" then accusing people of defensiveness because they respond is really pretty childish. Well...let's be honest it's pure trolling.

Beautiful stage today, well ridden. Let's just enjoy it and leave the ****ing contest for another day.

So you get your dig in and then tell people to just leave it. Great.

I predicted Degenkolb for the stage and am happy to admit I was well off. People are always so happy to point out when they get it right, what is so wrong pointing out that most people got it wrong.

 

[karlboss]

Predicting that it would end in a reduced bunch, wow... you should put money on that next time. You predicting tomorrow will be a sprint finish?

People do seem overly defensive that their cycling knowledge has been slighted because, all in all, their predictions were off.

I agree with you, but to call people out on predictions that were off, but pretty close, though obvious, seems silly to me. There were a few that were off the mark, Terpstra, Cancellara, featuring for example, however calling someone out for tipping Albasini to do well in place of Gerrans seemed unusual, he came 6th.
The predictions I'd be having a go at were those claiming that this stage would be decisive on GC, if anyone actually did, or perhaps if I picked Nibali in a late attack and the forum at large called me an idiot...is that what happened?
If we call people out when their nominated rider finishes within a few places of predicted, but not dead on, this forum would do nothing else.

EDIT: For the record the closest I came to predicting anything was that OPQS would be looking to Kwiatkowski instead of Trentin, bold I know, but it was in response to someone mentioning trentin.

 

[thehog]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mF10comCRE8

So it was the Dawg who couldn't hold Nibali's wheel?

So much for the physiological blow! Yes Phil?

 

[Afrank]

Calling any prediction pathetic is ridiculous. Especially when the predictions posted weren't that far off and were right in a lot of places. It's even more ridiculous to then accuse people of being defensive when all they do is explain why their prediction was a logical thing to say.

And I'd have to agree with RF, making people out like they're being defensive or resorting to insults instead of responding to the points in a post is trolling.

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

I agree with you, but to call people out on predictions that were off, but pretty close, though obvious, seems silly to me. There were a few that were off the mark, Terpstra, Cancellara, featuring for example, however calling someone out for tipping Albasini to do well in place of Gerrans seemed unusual, he came 6th.
The predictions I'd be having a go at were those claiming that this stage would be decisive on GC, if anyone actually did, or perhaps if I picked Nibali in a late attack and the forum at large called me an idiot...is that what happened?
If we call people out when their nominated rider finishes within a few places of predicted, but not dead on, this forum would do nothing else.

EDIT: For the record the closest I came to predicting anything was that OPQS would be looking to Kwiatkowski instead of Trentin, bold I know, but it was in response to someone mentioning trentin.

I have no wish to go round in circles with you. You make some good points and I will leave it at that.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

Predictions

One of these days it will come true, early days yet

 

[karlboss]

Predictions

One of these days it will come true, early days yet

I'd say stage 8 is his best chance.

 

[SKSemtex]

I'd say stage 8 is his best chance.

unless

 

[jaylew]

Great ride Nibali, isit me or was that really wierd, Contador looked to put Froome in trouble and then it was vice versa they both looked troubled a little bit. Do you lot see same as i did?.

Nah. You're reading too much. Neither was in any difficulty and neither even had a real go.

Haha nice.

@Zam, I was kinda expecting more from Valverde here, too, but maybe he's playing more conservatively these days. Whatever the case, I think that Nibs and Rolland will be the biggest animators until we get to the queen stage(s). And aren't we all glad they're here!

I have a sneaking feeling about him this year. No, nothing clinic-related

“I will do as well as I can. I am not trying to lose time on purpose. I will find my place on the road, but I am not 100 percent yet,” Rodríguez said at the line. “I don’t know if I will be riding for GC. We’ll have to see how I get out of this first week.”

Well, I guess that's decided.

Well, personally, I don't like Sagan because, no matter what length he cuts it, he consistently has stupid hair.

What, how can you not like this?

Seriously, wtf if that supposed to be? It's like he's wearing some weird old Russian hat.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

You mean he's smart.

No.

Somebody like Nibali managed to win yesterday by being smart... and guess what? He brought something to the race. Gerrans doesn't bring anything to any race since he left Cervélo.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Interesting–who do you think is out of it who had aspirations?

None of the contenders (or even pretenders) lost any significant time here, but to setup the rest of the early flat-ish stages nicely, we need more serious firepower in the break. Bigger morning battles and higher overall pace during these stages would be good. That requires a large portion of the peloton to be gapped, like we have after today's stage. Still doesn't guarantee better racing moving forward, but it does make it more probable.

Every GT should have a early semi selective stage.

And I concur with you view earlier, this was a great racing especially considering how similar stages/races pans out these days. When you add the context it became a fantastic stage.

Up Jenkin road, FW style.

More pics here: http://www.steephill.tv/2014/tour-de-france/photos/stage-02/

 

[veji11]

None of the contenders (or even pretenders) lost any significant time here, but to setup the rest of the early flat-ish stages nicely, we need more serious firepower in the break. Bigger morning battles and higher overall pace during these stages would be good. That requires a large portion of the peloton to be gapped, like we have after today's stage. Still doesn't guarantee better racing moving forward, but it does make it more probable.

Every GT should have a early semi selective stage.

And I concur with you view earlier, this was a great racing especially considering how similar stages/races pans out these days. When you add the context it became a fantastic stage.

+1
having a flat stage as the first one to give a sprinter the yellow jersey, why not, but to a a tiny chance of avoiding a very boring first week there needs to be at least the possibility of breakaways not putting pressure ont the yellow jersey's holder. This means a selective stage or an ITT.

In a similar way to 2010, this year's route sets it up quite nicely.

Still, it seems very hard nowadays for breakaways to have even a small chance : Many sprinters with strong teammates means that potentially a breakaway is riding againts 20/25 motivated and efficient foes... Too hard !

 

[42x16ss]

So much for the expertise of Cycling News commentators!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Nibali (1st), Kwiatkoski (3rd), Talansky (7th), Mollema (8th), van Garderen (9th), Bardel (10th), van den Broeck (11th), Contador (13th), Rui Costa (14th)

Where is that Octopus that predicts World Cup games?

Picky much?